Rolex Sydney Hobart: The big test for Comanche is expected around dawn on Sunday.
by Richard Gladwell 27 Dec 04:10 GMT
Master Lock Comanche powers south in a growing sea © Bow Caddy Media
After over 24hrs sailing in the 80th Rolex Sydney Hobart Race, the race leaders have exited the NSW coastline and are now well into Bass Strait.
The 100ft supermaxi, MasterLock Comanche, the only boat in the 140 strong fleet to have a TCF that starts with a "2", leads the fleet however their test is yet to come around dawn tomorrow as her crew have to negotiate a predicted drop in the breeze to below 4kts for a time.
The change in wind strength is triggered by the advancing high pressure zone, which is moving across Tasmania. It was preceded by a fading trough of Low pressure and a couple of fronts, which are now headed for New Zealand. However pushing hard on the Tasmanian High is a very active area of Low pressure in the southern Indian Ocean.
That softening of the breeze could be the foot in the door that second placed Law Connect needs, to pull in the current 5nm deficit over the higher rating Master Lock Comanche, which has a sticky, high wetted surface hull shape which has previously worked against the race recordholder in lighter airs.
The eight wind models used by PredictWind are all in agreement about the strength of the breeze, however the timing of the low-point covers a two hour period and there is no agreement direction of the breeze when it is in the forecasted lull - which makes the tactical navigation decision even more difficult.
Gabo Island at the entrance to Bass Strait is showing in the PredictWind observations function - with the breeze having dropped for a period, before strengthening early afternoon, to 24kts gusting 30kts - down from the 24hr high of 45kts. However the more immediate story is that the breeze has swung 60 degrees from the West (270 degrees) to SSW (210 degrees), at Gabo Island, and it is a similar story on the observation positions on the Tasmanian coast.
From the PredictWind DataHub aboard the Santa Cruz 72 Antipodes (HKG), we can see that the wind is reading 27.2kts with a peak gust of over 42kts showing.
In response, the change in wind direction has enabled the race leaders to straighten their course somewhat and are closer, but still to the east of the rhumbline course for Hobart. Behind them the van of the fleet is still in head winds as they negotiate their clearance from the New South Wales coastline.
The PredictWind route planning still recommends the supermaxis to head off to the east - advice which is being ignored as they have all straightened up their course in the shifting wind, and appear to be cutting the corner, anticipating the breeze to shift to the east earlier than predicted. On the weather routing run at 1420hrs AEDT, all wind models are showing a persistent shift to the east, with most showing the wind dropping for a time around dawn on Sunday morning.
In a few hours time, the position will become more clear, however the longer term forecast has always been for the winds to shift from the west through the south to the NE, and that trend is expected to continue, the only real question being the consistency and strength.
At this stage the 80th Roles Sydney Hobart looks set to be a big boat race with the Volvo 70 Celestial leading the fleet, with Lucky (USA) the Juan K Yacht Design 27 metre in second overall.
The race is expected to finish mid-afternoon, early evening on Sunday.
Retirement List:
As of 1400hrs AEDT on December 27, 2025 - the second day of the race only six yachts have retired.
- Inukshuk (DH) - Retired - rudder issues
- Moneypenny - Retired - equipment issues
- Roaring Forty (DH) - Retired - seasickness
- Trouble & Strife - Retired - engine issues
- White Noise - Retired - rigging issues.
- Wild Thing 100 - Retired - rigging issues
Recent Retirements as at 2200hrs AEDT on December 27, 2025
- Avalanche (DH) - Retired - battery charging issues
- Awen - Retired - broken forestay
- Coastwatcher - Retired
- Hutchies Yeah Baby - Retired - headstay damage
- Koa - Retired - headstay foil issues
- Maritimo 100 - Retired - electrical issues
- Maritimo Katwinchar - Retired - skipper’s discretion
- Mazu Denali's Little Helper - Retired - battery issues
- Mistral (DH) - Retired - crew injury
- Mudgee Concrete - Retired - rigging issues
- Ocean Crusaders J-Bird - Retired - minor hull damage
- Philosopher - Retired - rudder issues
- Troubadour - Retired - seasickness
- Unicoin - Retired - pulpit damage
- URM Group - Retired - hull damage
- V5 - Retired
- Vixen Racing - Retired - crew injury
- Wine-Dark Sea - Retired - equipment issues
- Wots Next - Retired - minor crew injuries
Additional Images:
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