Transat Paprec Day 18 - 48 Hours to Glory
by Transat Paprec 7 May 21:56 BST
7 May 2025
Cindy Brin & Thomas André (Cap St Barth) - Transat Paprec - Day 18 © Maggie Adamson et Calanach Finlayson (Solan Ocean Racing)
By Friday, the outcome of the Transat Paprec will be known. But who will have the final say? Who will seize the advantage, who will get stuck, who will claim an honorable finish, and who will be left disappointed?
We'll have to be patient a little longer—right up to the very end. While weather models differ on current options, they all agree on one thing: this will be a remarkably close finish. Less than three hours may separate most of the fleet at the finish line! Here's a breakdown of the situation and a snapshot of a thrilling race finale.
The end of this Transat Paprec is the height of paradox. On one hand, the skippers all speak of their eagerness to arrive, their joy in nearing Saint Barthélemy and its comforts. " We're really looking forward to arriving and celebrating with everyone," says Adrien Simon (FAUN), echoing the sentiment shared across the fleet. Yet there's also a palpable tension, a sense of anxiety that the outcome may slip from the hands of sailors who've strived to control it since the start 17 days ago.
"Mentally, it's not easy, " admits Cindy Brin (Cap Saint Barth). " Yesterday, we were leading at 10 AM (UTC), and by 3 PM, we'd dropped way down the rankings. " The Saint Barthélemy native described "a long lull—no wind—for nearly 15 hours, with the sails flapping uselessly while others were moving fast."
Weaving Through Squalls and Sargassum
In recent hours, uncertainty reigns. Across the fleet, it has meant "a lot of sail changes due to shifting wind directions," says Davy Beaudart. "The wind went every which way—it was chaos last night," adds Adrien Simon (FAUN). Progress is also being hampered by squalls. "It's squall central," jokes Martin Le Pape (Demain). The squalls not only demand constant vigilance but also test the boats themselves.
The main spinnaker aboard Décrochons la lune (Romain Bouillard & Irina Gracheva) tore. "We lost some ground because of that—it's tough," says Romain. On Humains en action, lightning damaged the wind instruments. "We had to sail blind until we could repair them," explains Hugo Cardon (Humains en action).
Calanach Finlayson (Solan Ocean Racing) also captured lightning strikes on camera. Earlier, the Brit had raised another issue: sargassum. "It's been exhausting," Calanach shares. "It's no longer a race—it's about who has the least seaweed on their appendages," laments Adrien Simon. "It's non-stop and really draining."
Most of the Fleet Within Three Hours at the Finish?
These challenging conditions are obviously impacting the race scenario. The fleet is currently spread across a 110-nautical-mile (203 km) line—from those farthest north, like Les Étoiles Filantes (Quentin Vlamynck & Audrey Ogereau) and Cap Saint Barth (Cindy Brin & Thomas André), to those farthest south, led by Demain (Martin Le Pape & Mathilde Géron) and Décrochons la lune (Romain Bouillard & Irina Gracheva), who were leading as of the 3 PM update.
But that doesn't necessarily mean they've secured the advantage. "The lack of trade winds is modeled differently across weather files," notes Yann Chateau of the race direction team. As has been the case for days, some boats are moving at 6 knots, while others struggle at less than 2... This situation is expected to persist until Friday, when "the trade winds return."
The result? The fleet continues to compress. "Regardless of the model used, boats may be tightly grouped at the finish, with most of them arriving within a three-hour window," explains Yann Chateau. As for ETAs (estimated times of arrival)? "The first boats could finish late Thursday night or early Friday morning (local time)," says the deputy race director, adding, "but these ETAs should be taken with a grain of salt given the conditions."
Meanwhile, the fleet is hanging in there, knowing the finish is closer than ever. And despite the fatigue, doubts, and minds clouded by effort, everyone is holding on to hope for a favorable outcome. As Cindy Brin put it in a message this morning: "We're holding onto hope right up to the finish line. We all have a lucky star, and I'm sure ours will shine again!"
Track the fleet here...