Check your America's Cup knowledge against the bookmakers
by TAB NZ 2 Mar 2021 19:49 GMT
Luna Rossa and Emirates Team NZ - Waitemata Harbour - January 6, 2020 - 36th America's Cup © Richard Gladwell / Sail-World.com
Fans now have the opportunity to test their America's Cup knowledge against the bookmakers at the TAB and maybe make a return.
As well Yachting New Zealand, as a sports controlling body that permits gambling on their sport, receives a dividend from the TAB based on the turnover against the sport/event. Several New Zealand sports bodies receive a very substantial return going into seven figures each year, which is put back into the development of the sport.
Wagering on the America's Cup has been possible in New Zealand for almost 20 years going back to the 2000 and 2003 America's Cups in Auckland. Since then some regulatory provisions have been introduced so that the national sporting bodies benefit.
Even if you are not a serious punter it is very interesting to see the prices and odds offered and how these move around after each day's racing. Since the start of the Prada Cup we've been following these as closely as we can, as the TAB prices are really the only way of checking how the market sees the results and where the various team performances are headed.
Here's how the TAB have seen the America's Cup Regattas unfold - and the changes in prices since INEOS Team UK had a disastrous America's Cup World Series which saw them paying $41 for each $1 of investment, for the Brits to win the America's Cup. That price dropped considerably when INEOS Team UK was first qualifier for the Prada Cup Final.
In the America's Cup Final sailing fans can bet on each or all of five outcomes:
- Outright winner - Correct score in the best of 13 series - Total races in series - Series Race Handicap Individual race winner for every race: both pre race and live. - Individual markets specific to each race, eg. team to cross the start line first, number of lead changes, teams to be leading after each leg, teams to capsize, etc.
These can change race-to-race depending on the informational available.
Historic look at Team New Zealand’s prices:
- Opened last year at $1.40. They moved down to $1.25 at one point during the Christmas Cup Regatta after dominating Luna Rossa on day 1, and then moved back out to $1.37 when that regatta finished after losing to American Magic and showing they were beatable to the market.
- During the Prada Cup which began on January 15 2021, their price drifted out. The market had adjusted after having a look at the other teams - particularly the dramatic improvement around Team UK - which forced their price in. As Team UK firmed, Team NZ drifted out to $1.70. After rumours and news of Team New Zealand’s new foils and apparent speed across all the wind ranges surfaced and Luna Rossa won the Prada Cup, their price came back into $1.50
Team New Zealand v Luna Rossa
Team New Zealand are currently $1.40, Luna Rossa $2.70, with correct score, under/over total series races, and series race handicap markets to be opened closer to race day. Since Luna Rossa qualified for the final Team New Zealand have come in from $1.65.
The highest Luna Rossa have paid is $10, with 8 punters betting on the Italians at that price. There has been significant interest with Team New Zealand in recent days as the rumours fly around the Kiwis incredible straight line speed, with over 70% of the money currently on the defenders.
Historic example of Price Moves: Team UK improving vs American Magic worsening.
An industry classic example of how things can change is the comparison of the prices between American Magic & Team UK. Team UK opened at $10 to win the America’s Cup, which moved to $41 after a disastrous Christmas Cup campaign. As news dripped in around their improvement, they slowly firmed to $12, before a dominant display on the opening day of the Prada Cup saw them slashed to just $4. Having qualified automatically for the Prada Cup final they then shortened even more to $2.70.
American Magic however, opened at $6, which firmed to $4 after a promising Christmas Cup Regatta. This then moved out to $8 as they struggled in the early stages of the America’s Cup, before the capsize and near sinking saw their price plummet to $31. As their boat rebuild took place and things appeared better than the team first anticipated, punters' confidence in the miracle increased and their price got all the way back into $8 before the semi final vs Luna Rossa began.
Looking Forward:
Historically, as obvious as it seems, the fastest boat usually wins the America’s Cup, regardless of tactics. The first race of the America’s Cup final will therefore be crucial. Punters can expect some dramatic price changes early on in the series as we finally see how Team New Zealand stack up against Luna Rossa.
If you think you know who has the better boat, the smart play would be to get your bets on before this is shown on day 1 of the America’s Cup final. If you want a bit more bang for your buck, then look to the correct score market to try and increase your profit.
Race conditions are also a crucial price mover. Team New Zealand look to have a very versatile boat across all wind ranges, and look to have a lot of upwind speed . Luna Rossa prefers the light winds, which is the one question mark experts have regarding Team New Zealand, whether their foil package will be able to handle light airs. Look for prices to move with the forecast, if you think you know what the wind will do and who it will suit then try and get on early!
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