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Rumours of Olympics event changes
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Dougaldog View Drop Down
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Posts: 356 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Dougaldog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Rumours of Olympics event changes
    Posted: 08 Sep 16 at 7:55pm
"But Jim, as an Olympic sport, countries would soon get up to speed "
Rupert - I think that you have just hit the World Sailing problem fair and square on the head. You could make every event in SMODS and my guess would be that the results would still go pretty much the way they do now. WS know that creating a form of sailing that  sees a greater degree of successful participation is what the IOC are looking for. But, at the same time that the developing nations are starting to improve, the core nations are throwing ever larger sums of money at the search for success. It will happen, but maybe not in time to keep sailing, in its current form, in the Games!
Dougal H
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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 2041 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 16 at 5:05am
WARNING - LONG POST WITH NUMBERS - WARNING

Yes, it is bizarre the way that so many people in sailing keep on ignoring the IOC's concerns about the international spread of the sport and the medals, while the same people keep on screeching about the spectator issue.

I crunched some numbers about the distribution of medals in the way the IOC Olympic Programme Commissions uses when considering sports. They examine the number of medals won by each the nations within each of the five IOC continental organisations. 

If we compare sailing medals since 1992 against the all-time all-sport medal count, Europe and the Americas are almost identical on both counts; that is, Europe has won 62% of all Olympic medals and 61% of recent sailing medals, while the Americas have won 21% of all medals and 19% of sailing medals. Oceania does much better in sailing than overall (16% v 3.5%), Asia does worse at sailing than overall (4% v 11%) while Africa has never had a sailing medal and has a surprisingly low 2% of all medals. Obviously there is an issue with comparing medals on two different time scales, but it also shows that we don't need Africa and Asia to be bringing in lots of gold to make the sport look fairly representative in terms of the international spread of medals. 

The Radials and windsurfers are clearly better at spreading the medals around than the other types. Europe and Oceania get the same proportion of medals but America gets fewer and Asia gets more.

The cats sent more medals to the Americas (both north and south) and Oceania than the monos did. Until 2016 Asia didn't ever enter the cats and Africa only entered once, finishing second last. This time they both entered, which was great, but were last and second last. So much for the claims that cats are great for improving the popularity of Olympic sailing!

The Star shifted medals from Europe to America (north and south). I don't think Asia or Africa ever entered.

The 470s have had two Asian medal winners, both Japanese, but that was some time ago. 

The 49ers and men's Laser maintained the tradition of over-representing Europe and Oceania in the medal rankings (compared to the overall trend in sailing) at the expense of the Americas.

The Finn was poor at spreading the medals, with 95% going to Europe or America. The Europe saw (appropriately but inconveniently) almost all medals going to Europe and a few to America. In the Yngling 100% of medals went to Europe. The Elliott 6 also had extremely poor international distribution. 

While it would be good to get a yacht back into the Games, the previous attempts to bring in classes that were not already widely distributed were disasters in terms of spreading medals and attracting widespread entries, and since the yachties can't agree on a class for long enough for it to become popular around the world, they'll have to deal with the consequences. I checked ISAF reports and the only yacht class that has racing on every IOC Continent is the Flying 15. 

The closest anyone from Africa got to the medals recently was Iain Ainslie's 6th (?) place in the Finns for South Africa, with Gareth Blankenburg about 10th(?) in Lasers the second best. Both of them were some time ago.

SMODs and slower boats seem to bring Asia into the picture, at the expense of the USA and to a lesser extent the rest of the American continent. The classes that may have the most open rules send medals to the Americas.

So the recipe for keeping sailing in the Games would seem to require keeping the boards, Laser and 470s (the classes in which emerging countries do best) and being more active about encouraging African sailing. Maybe the top sailing nations should seriously look at their own emerging nations programs, like inviting Africans into their training squads - it may either be that, or risk the IOC chucking out the sport that is a medal factory for the UK and Australia.

The easier alternative is for 80% of the British team to sail for St Helena (which would be in Africa according to the IOC rules) with the other 20% sailing for Diego Garcia (which would be in Asia for the Olympic calculations), 30% of the Australian team to sail for Christmas Island (in Asia), and 30% of the Spanish to sail for Cuerta (Africa). That'd even things up nicely!


Edited by Chris 249 - 09 Sep 16 at 5:54am
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The history and design of the racing dinghy.
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Dougaldog View Drop Down
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Posts: 356 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Dougaldog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 16 at 2:57pm
Well said Chris.....thought this particular block of writing has been on the wall for many a year now. Many of those people you identify are also the same ones who where shouting "it's a fix up" the loudest when the RS900 lost out to the 49erfx, though that decision was there for all to see well in advance.

Knowing that you're a lover of the historical aspect to things, it is interesting to note that some (though I accept not all) of the drivers behind the 1965 IYRU single-hander Trials were rooted in the continuing dominance of one person in the Finn class. One person, one country - I don't think it matters, but in the chats that take place around the photo copier (though I'm not sure where the well heeled grandees from WS congregate for off record chats... certainly they wouldn't lower themselves to meeting behind the bike sheds) I'm pretty damn sure that the stats you showed us will be a topic of much discussion. I'm not sure how WS are going to level the playing field; both India and Pakistan have active dinghy sailing scenes, but there is the inevitable lag between setting up a scheme aimed at medal success and the actual result of climbing up onto the podium. Let's wait and see what November brings, my guess is that there will be a weeping and wailing in certain quarters at the prospect of real change for once
Dougal H
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Oinks View Drop Down
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Posts: 267 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Oinks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 16 at 7:19pm
Two fleets, men and women separate if needs be. Handicap. Nothing slower than a Laser Radial. Class must be ISAF (?) recognised. Every race, different course (incl long distance). No fannying around about what class should be an olympic class. Diverse range of boats. Representative of the sailing that goes on (at my club anyway!). Simples. Outside the box. Imagine the handicap rows
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Oinks View Drop Down
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Posts: 267 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Oinks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 16 at 7:21pm
Just to add...one of the races could be a pursuit...easy and exciting for the lay person to watch.
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maxibuddah View Drop Down
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Posts: 1760 		Post Options Post Options   Quote maxibuddah Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 16 at 9:11pm
Originally posted by Oinks

Two fleets, men and women separate if needs be. Handicap. Nothing slower than a Laser Radial. Class must be ISAF (?) recognised. Every race, different course (incl long distance). No fannying around about what class should be an olympic class. Diverse range of boats. Representative of the sailing that goes on (at my club anyway!). Simples. Outside the box. Imagine the handicap rows

Na, the IOC bods would employ GRF to oversee the handicapping
Everything I say is my opinion, honest
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Paramedic View Drop Down
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Posts: 929 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Sep 16 at 8:12am
Tbf to that suggestion, handicapping similar boats (Solo, Europe, new/old Supernova, Laser etc) works well and is pretty accurate.

Would still be a better bet than holding a double points race under a cliff.
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