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Rupert View Drop Down
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    Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 1:15pm
Originally posted by L123456

Originally posted by JimC

Originally posted by L123456

I wonder what the variance is is say a reasonably large one-design fleet on finishing times?

Around 25% in every class I've ever looked at - or 250 points of PY.

The results from the last Olympics are fully timed, makes interesting reading...
http://www.sailing.org/olympics/london2012/results_centre.php

Now I think about it its kinda suspicious that the range seems quite consistent between very different classes and even similarly wide at the Games. I wonder if its as much dominated by a tendency of mark roundings to force everyone into single file as anything else? Maybe there would be a difference between long races with few mark roundings and shortraces with many. Might be an interesting thing to research.


25% ... That makes people who bitch about a few points on py look a bit daft.


It does, except are you that worried about racing against people who are either so much better or so much worse in sailing standard than you? Surely the results you are interested in are those where just the odd % point or (far) less can mean the change of a place.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 2:17pm
And how often does that really happen if you look at real racing results, Rupert? And when it does, how do you know which way round is correct?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 2:33pm
Loads of time there is less than a minute between boats after corrections (so 2% in a 50 minute race, max) - I've been tied with people on handicap fairly often, too. Should I have been? No idea, but that is "what the handicaps said" - you should be glad about that. When I look around the fleet, I know who I'm in the same ball park as racing wise (though obviously, I'm better than them...) and we often get close results. If there is a novice out, I don't really think "woo hoo, I beat them by 25 minutes on corrected time", just as I'm not really worried about beating a novice at an Open meeting - my eyes are on the people close in speed.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote ChrisJ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 3:48pm
Looking at Open Meetings over the last few years... We do windward / leewards, so the lap is quite short compared to a full triangle + sausage = 1 lap....
When we have a 3-lap race, it is rare for the leaders to lap the back markers. But when we have a 4-lap race, the leaders always lap the back markers.

The 2000 class may be different to other classes - where the top people are top 2 at the Endeavour and other people may have only been sailing for a year or two. But it does support the 25-30% spread in results within any one class.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote L123456 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 6:21pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Loads of time there is less than a minute between boats after corrections (so 2% in a 50 minute race, max) - I've been tied with people on handicap fairly often, too. 

So do you think that means you are the same skill level as them?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 8:01pm
On average, probably, unless the handicaps are wildly out. They are certainly the people I judge my sailing against. Skill level is odd - I expect mine changes a fiar amount from race to race, let alone compared to other people.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 8:44pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Skill level is odd - I expect mine changes a fair amount from race to race, let alone compared to other people.


I just did a quick analysis on last years Wednesday series results at my club. based on winner = 100% and the least variation in anyones results was 100-106% and the greatest, excluding real beginners 111-145%. The latter was in a somewhat one trick pony class as you'd expect.

About two thirds of the fleet had a variation of 15% or less. Interestingly the Lasers had by far the lowest range of variation, with 5 of the lowest 6 being Lasers, and the other the series winner. Also no Laser had a variation more than 11%

% of winners time is the sum I have readily available, so on that basis our club sailors (a fairly typical lot I think) will perform in the region of 7% to 15% of range of performance on different days. Of course that includes variation in class performance due to weather, which implies there might be something in the old theory about Lasers being mediocre in all conditions rather than good in some but not others.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote NickM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 14 at 11:36pm
I wish people would take more note of this point that JimC always makes about the huge variations in time in single fleet racing. Our club race management system generates a "sailed at " PY figure for handicap races and often there is a 100 points variation from the official PY for some boats in a 45 minute race. And as Jim says part of this is down to the leaders getting away and enjoying free air and less congested mark roundings.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 14 at 10:35am
So, how much of that range is due to weather, and how much due to thigs going "right" or "wrong" for a particular helm on a particular race? Pretty sure we all get days when one race we nail the start, get the clear air, have a barnstormer. Go into the next race thinking we are Ben Ainslie, only to get sat on at the start by a beginner, catch weed up the 1st beat, sit in dirty air, have to go round the outside of the raft at the mark and finish the race thinking about taking up tiddlywinks instead. Given you are talking an average of more than 10% in finishing variation for 1 person, if one gets the great race, and one the crap one, the variation between the 2 will be enormous, and possibly (even for sailors who are nominally of the same standard) reversed in the next race.

However, I would say that it is still possible to get close results in handicap racing against people who you feel are similar standard, especially if the boats don't have wildly different handicaps or performance characteristics.

What it does suggest is that handicap bandings sailed scratch would not have too much effect on results, especially for clubs where they have a fair few boats in 20 point bands - clubs could make up their own to suit the boats they have. For us, we have the Solos, Lightnings a Versa, Firefly and some others all close on handicap, and then we have Supasofas, Lasers and some others. Would encourage people to find a boat that suits in a certain speed band, rather than a particular class, which might not suit sailing ability or body type.
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