one duff tack

Originally posted by L123456 Originally posted by JimC Originally posted by L123456 I wonder what the variance is is say a reasonably large one-design fleet on finishing times? Around 25% in every class I've ever looked at - or 250 points of PY. The results from the last Olympics are fully timed, makes interesting reading... http://www.sailing.org/olympics/london2012/results_centre.php Now I think about it its kinda suspicious that the range seems quite consistent between very different classes and even similarly wide at the Games. I wonder if its as much dominated by a tendency of mark roundings to force everyone into single file as anything else? Maybe there would be a difference between long races with few mark roundings and shortraces with many. Might be an interesting thing to research. 25% ... That makes people who bitch about a few points on py look a bit daft.

It does, except are you that worried about racing against people who are either so much better or so much worse in sailing standard than you? Surely the results you are interested in are those where just the odd % point or (far) less can mean the change of a place.

Loads of time there is less than a minute between boats after corrections (so 2% in a 50 minute race, max) - I've been tied with people on handicap fairly often, too. Should I have been? No idea, but that is "what the handicaps said" - you should be glad about that. When I look around the fleet, I know who I'm in the same ball park as racing wise (though obviously, I'm better than them...) and we often get close results. If there is a novice out, I don't really think "woo hoo, I beat them by 25 minutes on corrected time", just as I'm not really worried about beating a novice at an Open meeting - my eyes are on the people close in speed.

Originally posted by Rupert Loads of time there is less than a minute between boats after corrections (so 2% in a 50 minute race, max) - I've been tied with people on handicap fairly often, too.

Originally posted by Rupert Skill level is odd - I expect mine changes a fair amount from race to race, let alone compared to other people.

I just did a quick analysis on last years Wednesday series results at my club. based on winner = 100% and the least variation in anyones results was 100-106% and the greatest, excluding real beginners 111-145%. The latter was in a somewhat one trick pony class as you'd expect.

About two thirds of the fleet had a variation of 15% or less. Interestingly the Lasers had by far the lowest range of variation, with 5 of the lowest 6 being Lasers, and the other the series winner. Also no Laser had a variation more than 11%

% of winners time is the sum I have readily available, so on that basis our club sailors (a fairly typical lot I think) will perform in the region of 7% to 15% of range of performance on different days. Of course that includes variation in class performance due to weather, which implies there might be something in the old theory about Lasers being mediocre in all conditions rather than good in some but not others.

So, how much of that range is due to weather, and how much due to thigs going "right" or "wrong" for a particular helm on a particular race? Pretty sure we all get days when one race we nail the start, get the clear air, have a barnstormer. Go into the next race thinking we are Ben Ainslie, only to get sat on at the start by a beginner, catch weed up the 1st beat, sit in dirty air, have to go round the outside of the raft at the mark and finish the race thinking about taking up tiddlywinks instead. Given you are talking an average of more than 10% in finishing variation for 1 person, if one gets the great race, and one the crap one, the variation between the 2 will be enormous, and possibly (even for sailors who are nominally of the same standard) reversed in the next race.

However, I would say that it is still possible to get close results in handicap racing against people who you feel are similar standard, especially if the boats don't have wildly different handicaps or performance characteristics.

What it does suggest is that handicap bandings sailed scratch would not have too much effect on results, especially for clubs where they have a fair few boats in 20 point bands - clubs could make up their own to suit the boats they have. For us, we have the Solos, Lightnings a Versa, Firefly and some others all close on handicap, and then we have Supasofas, Lasers and some others. Would encourage people to find a boat that suits in a certain speed band, rather than a particular class, which might not suit sailing ability or body type.