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Is Wind Guru killing our sport?

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Ruscoe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Ruscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Is Wind Guru killing our sport?
    Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 1:41pm

Ok a bit tongue in cheek really.  But speaking to friends in other fleets who spend their time pulling their boats up and down the country to go to travelers events.  There have been instances where numbers at opens have been significantly down.  This is usually coupled with an interesting forecast (light or loads) of wind.  The Lord Birkett this weekend could of been an example.  I had a couple of club mates decide not to go because the forecast looked awful.  The Saturday actually turned out to be one of the best winds I have ever raced in at the Birkett and the Sunday was more than sailable if a little light for my own liking.  For me part of the art of sailing is facing whatever nature chucks at you, however I will hold my hands up and say I am guilty of staying at home courtesy of Mystic 'Windguru' Meg.

 

So I guess it begs the question, who checks the forecast then makes a decision.  Or even better who ignores the forecast and ends up have a great sail?


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mongrel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote mongrel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 1:47pm
More like - Is the price of fuel killing our sport?
A lot of people at the moment are money poor & time poor.  If a poor weather forecast helps them decide to spend their time with their family and save the fuel & B&B costs, then so be it.
 
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transient View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote transient Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 2:23pm
The long standing members at our club reckoned the anemometer put people off going out when it was first installed. "We used to go out in all conditions cos we never knew how hard the wind was blowing".

These days there seems to be 2 schools of thought: Those that want to plan the weekend ahead dependant on the weather and those who want numbers at the club regardless of the weather.


Can't say I blame windguru for the decline in participation though.......don't shoot the messenger and all that.


Just a speculation......we've already discussed various practical reason why there is a decline but if you go back a few years there seemed to be a greater need for socialising. More folk went out to meet like minded people because it was the only way to make contact with the outside world. If sailors couldn't sail because of the weather they still enjoyed the club atmosphere.......What's the situation now? Churches with falling attendance, Pubs closing down wholesale, high street shops closing.........perhaps the world (at least this part of it) is becoming less social, perhaps folk are getting their social fix in other ways.

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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 2:26pm
Originally posted by Ruscoe

Ok a bit tongue in cheek really.  But speaking to friends in other fleets who spend their time pulling their boats up and down the country to go to travelers events.  There have been instances where numbers at opens have been significantly down.  This is usually coupled with an interesting forecast (light or loads) of wind.  The Lord Birkett this weekend could of been an example.  I had a couple of club mates decide not to go because the forecast looked awful.  The Saturday actually turned out to be one of the best winds I have ever raced in at the Birkett and the Sunday was more than sailable if a little light for my own liking.  For me part of the art of sailing is facing whatever nature chucks at you, however I will hold my hands up and say I am guilty of staying at home courtesy of Mystic 'Windguru' Meg.

 

So I guess it begs the question, who checks the forecast then makes a decision.  Or even better who ignores the forecast and ends up have a great sail?



Yes, it is. If an event is put on, and you were planning on going, said you were going, all the arrangements have been made in terms of lunches, prizes bought based on numbers who say they are going, then backing out at the last minute because there is a light wind forecast seems a very poor show.

Somehow if gales are forecast it desn't seem quite so bad - maybe the idea of not sailing because of light winds is a new thing, brought about by some modern boats being so crappy in lighter airs, whereas not sailing because you'll get blown flat in 2 minutes is as old as sailing itself.


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Ruscoe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Ruscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 2:51pm

Obviously there have been weather forecasts for donkeys years, but the ability to get more detailed forecasts is now easier then ever.  It just strikes me that its making it easier for people to find a reason not to sail.  I am sure there are a load of other issues as to why people are not travelling.  But 'Windguru' seems to be a reason i am hearing more and more.  I rarely hear i'm not travelling to that open because f the fuel costs.  As mentioned before, i  am as guilty as the next man/woman at trying to find a reason not to travel.  But in reality surely its better a bad day on the water then a good day cutting the lawn!?!?


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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 2:54pm
People have actually started believing them, that is the difference...
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Steve411 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Steve411 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 3:24pm
Originally posted by Ruscoe

Obviously there have been weather forecasts for donkeys years, but the ability to get more detailed forecasts is now easier then ever.  It just strikes me that its making it easier for people to find a reason not to sail.  I am sure there are a load of other issues as to why people are not travelling.  But 'Windguru' seems to be a reason i am hearing more and more.  I rarely hear i'm not travelling to that open because f the fuel costs.  As mentioned before, i  am as guilty as the next man/woman at trying to find a reason not to travel.  But in reality surely its better a bad day on the water then a good day cutting the lawn!?!?

 
To be honest, there is nothing worse than a bad day on the water...
 
I think the problem is the accuracy of the forecasts. I prefer to call them guesses. I missed out on a great open a few years ago because the forecast was dire and the actual conditions were perfect. Likewise, one of our best championships in recent years, at Prestwick in 2010, was forecast not to have winds over 8 knots on any of the 4 days. In actual fact after the first day the wind never dropped below 12. On the last day is blew 20 knots when the evening before the forecast was for 7.
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maxibuddah View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote maxibuddah Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 3:29pm
Russ, yep the excuse is mostly windguru, but I think that it is tired in with the fuel cost. "I'm not bothering to travel for the hours of the wind is terrible as it's now worth the cost" might be nearer the truth. however if the forecast is good then the cost may get ignored.

As time is tougher for a lot then why cash in the brownie points to sail in little wins. Better to keep them for those few champagne days.
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Phil_1193 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Phil_1193 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 4:02pm
Yes and no

I remeber in late 80's early 90's ringing the 0800 marine call number (ended in 455 for Wash to North Foreland) to get the inshore forecast to see if it was worth going or not.

Still do same thing now just don't need to stand in the hall with a phone to one ear frantically writing and trying to keep up because it can be done at your own pace at pretty much anytime!

There has been a bit of an arguement that clubs showing 'live' weather puts people off.

I don't agree.

Generally if you plan to go sailing you will go.

Someone will find a report saying no wind for a venue when someone else will chip in with one saying itll be blowing its tits off!

Most of the time Wind Guru is wrong anyway, yesterday it said 3knts with 8knt gusts, was actually blowing 10-15knts for most of the day!

Apathy is killing the sport and the ease of getting weather forecasts is just the excuse most need not to do something.






Edited by Phil_1193 - 08 Jul 13 at 4:15pm
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maxibuddah View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote maxibuddah Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 13 at 4:20pm
I like the last bit Phil. Excuses are easier to come by than they used to be.

I use windfinder and it seems to be more accurate on the whole than windguru . Certainly better than the BBC.

Wind appears to be getting more diverse at weekends. Either loads or none, what has happened to the middle ground? Either that or it only happens on the 5 days a year I can actually sail these days.....
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