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2016 PY Predictor
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pompeysailor View Drop Down
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Posts: 101 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pompeysailor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 2016 PY Predictor
    Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 2:14pm
"Bottom line is the SJ series and other similar large handicap events that use the GL numbers do attract many of the best across virtually all classes.  They also sail good examples of each class (and not some tired old clunkers) - their results at these events should get much closer to the true POTENTIAL of their class relative to that of other classes is the argument."
 
totally agree - the SJ series is the closest to a uniformed level of ability (and quality of boat/sails etc) we're likely to get across multiple classes
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 2:28pm
Originally posted by pompeysailor

"Bottom line is the SJ series and other similar large handicap events that use the GL numbers do attract many of the best across virtually all classes.  They also sail good examples of each class (and not some tired old clunkers) - their results at these events should get much closer to the true POTENTIAL of their class relative to that of other classes is the argument."
 
totally agree - the SJ series is the closest to a uniformed level of ability (and quality of boat/sails etc) we're likely to get across multiple classes


It is also a tiny sample compared to all the racing that goes on, week in, week out across the country.
Luckily for the vast majority, yardsticks are taken and used week in, week out and provide a way of different classes to race against each other. Because of the way it works, numbers will change, and again, the vast majority of people using the system understand that, will laugh when it goes well for them, whinge a bit when it goes badly, and then just get on with things.

In my totally view, based on my own experiences, the system is closer to being accurate now than it was 5 years ago.
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pompeysailor View Drop Down
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Posts: 101 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pompeysailor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 4:15pm
I don't think there is anything wrong with a "small" sample as long as that sample is as close to a fair representation as possible.
 
The nice thing about the SJ series (Great Lakes Handicap) is
* its not tidal which can influence results at many clubs across the country
* 90%+ of the competitors are (hopefully) competent sailors, so a more accurate representation of boat speed, rather than sailor ability
* its raced on venues which offer a mix of smaller lakes, and also large ones which "nearly" represent a sea venue (maybe not the open sea, but a sheltered sea / harbour venue maybe..)
* I'm pretty sure there was most weather conditions covered at some point
 
 
 
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Posts: 1345 		Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 4:15pm
Maybe clubs could usefully take the mean of the PY and SJ numbers?

Also, when PY used three digits there was less implied accuracy, therefore maybe the expectation was different.  

I notice further up the thread that the the Lasers are arguing about 3 minutes in 100.  A tight reaching marginal planing course could easily put the a Laser in a useful position whether on PY or SJ.
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Posts: 715 		Post Options Post Options   Quote transient Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:11pm
Originally posted by davidyacht

Maybe clubs could usefully take the mean of the PY and SJ numbers?




There lies one of the major problems in my experience. Many clubs will not deviate from the officially published figures because they see it as opening a can of worms.

I don't think it's reasonable to lay the blame for unsuitable numbers on the RYA entirely. The sailing community have some serious culpability for not wanting to adjust locally for fear of upsetting the PY grumblers.



What sailing secretary (in their right mind) would dare gives the likes of GRF a number he didn't like. Wink








Edited by transient - 04 Feb 16 at 5:25pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:30pm
But if the RYA say they don't have the data or resource to estimate just three or four geographical variations (inland, sea etc), what chance have individual clubs or doing a fair local adjustment?



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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:35pm
Originally posted by Peaky

But if the RYA say they don't have the data or resource to estimate just three or four geographical variations (inland, sea etc), what chance have individual clubs or doing a fair local adjustment?





On that,Peaky, I agree wholeheartedly. It becomes very personal when a club only has one or two of anything but Lasers.
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Posts: 1635 		Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 6:29pm
Sample selection is everything in statistical work and is as critical, if not more critical, as crunching the data.  Go for a inherently flawed sample (i.e. not fully representative for whatever reason) and you can forget meaningful conclusions however large the sample or refined your crunching ....

'Size of sample' can become a total delusion ... simply referring to or increasing the sample size to 'improve' or underline your confidence in the results does not necessarily 'improve' anything at all.    It is totally illogical to justify conclusions only by reference to larger and larger samples being used - the real qualification has to be 'Is this data sample as representative as it could be ?'  Could it carry or contain anything that might mislead ?  This is exactly why structured sampling is frequently employed in some areas of statistical study.    Far better, efficient and more economic to have a small sample that is truly representational of the variable you are interested in ...

The GL data used to adjust from PN numbers have several advantages.  1) The comparisons then made consider craft in the very same races and identical conditions.  2) Many more craft that enter are fully sorted, good examples of the various classes involved (ie - they are capable of being sailed close to the limit for that class) 3) A high proportion of those racing are very capable helms and crews. (ie These people can sail the craft very close to the limit for any their class). 4) The effective ‘weighting’ towards the front of any class is obvious – after all we should be trying to net out the effect of ‘hardware’ on results.  What better way you might argue (I’m sure many will !)   

Capable boats sailed to the limit for any class and against many many other classes, at the same locations, in the same races, in identical weather etc etc make this data particularly relevant. And there are lots of them.

But you really don't need truly massive sampling .... the sample has to be just ‘large enough’ - that is all.  But it is imperative you consider the possible inclusion of all artifacts within the samples used very carefully.  Events now employing GL numbers are increasing all the time... Are these clubs and organisers simply wrong ?      



Edited by blaze720 - 04 Feb 16 at 6:32pm
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 6:35pm
Originally posted by transient





[QUOTE=davidyac]What sailing secretary (in their right mind) would dare gives the likes of GRF a number he didn't like. Wink




In reality? Every one I've ever met... (mainly because I was sailing new boats)..

But your point is valid, no club wants the hassle, we don't, we run a personal handicap thing at the end of the season, but for the most part go with the flow. They tried varying it down the lake and the angst level down there is quite palpable and folk do get upset, then they vote with their feet if the 'wrong' folk are beating them.

Ego's can be pretty fragile in what is a pecking order sort of sport, nothing I like more than seeing my bloody name in the paper at the bottom of a long list of dinghy muppets and do I take stick for it amongst my ex windsurfing peers! The fact is though not everyone has skin thick enough to take it and eventually the numbers drop away, which is a shame.

Edited by iGRF - 04 Feb 16 at 6:35pm
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 6:52pm
Originally posted by transient

....

There lies one of the major problems in my experience. Many clubs will not deviate from the officially published figures because they see it as opening a can of worms.
...




How many clubs can meaningfully generate their own numbers?
Ours is a small club with a range of classes and a range of abilities.
The range of ability is clearly not constant across the classes in any one year.

Any attempt to change the numbers would either imply that a fat middle aged bloke who is having a go at sailing late in life should have the same chance of winning as a recent national champion, or involve deciding the results and fudging the numbers to fit.
Luckily most of us don't take it too seriously and people have other goals than beating the spreadsheet.
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