2016 PY Predictor
Printed From: Yachts and Yachting Online
Category: Dinghy classes
Forum Name: Dinghy development
Forum Discription: The latest moves in the dinghy market
URL: http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=12293
Printed Date: 08 Jul 25 at 1:44am
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: 2016 PY Predictor
Posted By: pompeysailor
Subject: 2016 PY Predictor
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 10:15am
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Does anyone have a crystal ball and wants to throw out some predictions on any movement on PY this year?
I would personally (just my opinion!) like to see the Phantom to move back to normality from 995 and get in the 1000/1005 region ------------- Formerly - OK 2145 Phantom 1437, Blaze 819, Fireball 14668, Mirror 54145 |
Replies:
Posted By: Neptune
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 10:59am
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i predict some people will be grumpy, some will be doing a little dance inside. I suspect most people don't give a monkeys ------------- Musto Skiff and Solo sailor |
Posted By: boatshed
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 10:59am
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RS300 will drop to into the late 970s or bang on 980. The Laser 1 will get slower. ------------- Steve |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 11:03am
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Me too. Phantom up by 5, Solo down by 10, Laser up yet again by silly amounts, Zero and Aero drop as people learn to sail them (or maybe up as muppets buy them!) Supersofa drops by 5 or 10 as new hulls do well.
Doublehanders mostly drop as few new boats are selling and cheap old boats are snapped up by beginners to racing. PY bandit of the year the Laser II. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: Cirrus
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 11:12am
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A reasonable forward indicator is the Great Lakes numbers imo. PN numbers now seem to be 'following' and every year more and more major events going for GL .... not surprising as the GL approach was very possibly the result of ... eerm 'PN's limitations' (a very seperate discussion of course !) |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 11:12am
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I expect the same flawed data-munging will produce similar changes to the RS400 PY as it's done for the past few years. I expect another drop of 2 to 4 points.
Other classes? Solo likely to drop a bit as a lot of good people sailing them. |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 11:33am
| An interesting exercise would be to compare the weather for 2012 (which drops off the calculations) with 2015 which comes onto them. |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 12:17pm
Our 2015 went a bit limp due to missing a load of autumn series races when it was very windy. So our returns will be slanted towards the light winds that we actually sailed! |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 12:36pm
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I'm hoping ours and Redoubts results don't undo the Solution trend to parallel the Laser which is already becoming an absurd Bandit on the sea. I'd also like to see the Phantom back around 1005 -10.
It's been a Contender windy season for us, on our system it recommends losing 100 pts, they'd love that  ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: sargesail
Date Posted: 27 Jan 16 at 11:59pm
Whereas we raced in lots of that big breeze....thank goodness not everyone did or the PYs would be coming down for my craft!
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Posted By: rich96
Date Posted: 28 Jan 16 at 12:19pm
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The Phantom must drop back a little - no way is it a sub 1000 boat in most conditions. 300 is significantly quicker most of the time
OK may be due to drop back a little too ?. Again - they cant be as fast as a Laser in most conditions. Scorpion must be due to get nearer 1030 (Great Lakes no. is 1027 I think ?) |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 11:13am
Merlin... It needs to be 940..  ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 12:21pm
You know you want one! I've had a go, I think they take a lot of sailing to get anywhere near their current handicap, relative to the 400. Maybe that would not be so true on a pure w/l course. They are a tough boat to compare, because they are not really similar to anything else. I wouldn't buy one for the PY, I'd buy one for the open circuit they have, and the talent you get to sail against. |
Posted By: getafix
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 12:27pm
Merlin vs 400 is an interesting one. Merlins tend to be nomadic and those that travel tend to be good, going on very good. At club level, the gap is probably closer than it appears to be at open handicap events. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 1:47pm
No, although I did give it a go, alternately as helm and incompetent crew, I documented it somewhere it was fun, but no, not for me if I want to be bitchy I'd say I like to win by fair means not foul... ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 2:31pm
If you want to be sure you've won fairly, get the same boat as the other guy. These days whether I've enjoyed a race has very little to do with what any spreadsheet says. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 3:17pm
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Done that as well, so it's light = I win, it's windy = he wins. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: zippyRN
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 8:15pm
and the one vaguely comparable boat is the 400 despite less adjustable rig, assy kite etc ... |
Posted By: Jeepers
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 8:24pm
| Vaguely comparable..yes. The 400 will blow a Merlin away under kite, on a broad reach in a good breeze. But around the cans, well sailed it would beat a Merlin on the water...but not by much. |
Posted By: zippyRN
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 9:43pm
vaguely comparable in terms of size / design characteristics (i.e. not being a 'heavy' 'conservative' boat like a GP wanderer or wayfarer - all of which are good at doing what they do ) and being a 3 sail hiking boat that two average or bigger than average people can sail ... (vs the 200 / miracle etc) |
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 10:33pm
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There is no way that you can take PY racing seriously, particularly on a one off race. Success will always be weather, tide and boat dependent, and that is ignoring the comparative skills of the sailors whose data the PYs are based. If you have close marginal planing reaches Lasers will dominate Solos. If it is dogs off chains then 420's or Fireballs may dominate. If it is beat and running Merlins should beat 400's. It the wind dies in a pursuit race it will favour the slow boats and visa versa. You get the picture. So by all means go PY racing, have fun, but don't take the handicaps or the results too seriously, or you will get seriously screwed up. ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: chrisg
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 10:43pm
| Not a fan then? |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 29 Jan 16 at 11:56pm
| Same is of course true in development classes, at least if the class hasn't stagnated into a virtual one design. And crew weight is so much more of a factor. |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 8:03am
In contrast to that we feel that 995 for the Phantom is about right on our little inland puddle. I believe a higher proportion of returns come from inland clubs so the PY probably gets skewed a little. ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 8:58am
Won't say that I am a fan, but I have had a little success in the past including Grafham Grand Prix and Chichester Snowflakes, my point is that you shouldn't take handicap racing or PY numbers too seriously. PY does not effectively deal with the type of course, changing wind conditions or classes where there is a large proportion of good or bad sailors ... Let alone consider tidal gates, as at this year's Steamer. One other relatively new phenomenon to think about; the PY for an Aero or D-zero will be determined by club returns, where the PY will be established from data across a range of conditions, mixing the good and the bad. Yet at one off events someone can turn up with the complete set of rigs and pick their "club" to suit the prevailing conditions but benefit from a PY established from data that is sub optimal. ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: rich96
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 9:03am
Perhaps on a puddle ?. Definitely not on the sea |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 9:05am
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What happened to the experiments with splitting the results for sea and inland? ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 9:24am
It would be nice, but where do you draw the line? As I've said before, inside the breakwaters at Portland and Grafham Water are more like each other than they are like say outside the bar at Hayling or Frensham Pond. There are facilities working up on the website for clubs with similar water to compare local results, which is probably a better option. |
Posted By: The Moo
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 9:48am
The level of debate on here suggests people do, probably in the main because there is no viable alternative. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 12:13pm
Or that for most of us, there has never been any alternative, particularly if you want to sail something designed & built in this century. The fact that no one, not even the body running the system takes it seriously is very disquieting and not doing the sport any favours at all. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 12:18pm
The salinity of the water makes a difference as I've frequently waxed on about to deaf ears... I even noticed it, obviously on boards which are more sensitive to volume and flotation issues at tidal estuary locations, like Exmouth where depending how far up the reach the course was, at lower water the river water content over the salt made your board feel more sluggish. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 1:32pm
| Sure, everything makes a difference, but I'll require a lot of convincing that water density makes a more significant difference than the presence or absence of soddin' great waves and strong tidal streams. |
Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 2:30pm
I'd like to see it but it's a tricky one as Jim says. A tidal current of say 3 knots really clobbers the slower boats significantly in relation to the faster ones. This particularly effects the youngsters in slower boats. Not great encouragement to participate in club racing. |
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 3:08pm
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Especially if the marks are positioned so that there is a lee bow effect ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 3:18pm
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It may well be tricky, but it would be closer than not having it. I'm happy with having comparisons to similar waters, but anything a club does itself is open to club politics getting in the way, and also requires someone with the time, knowledge and interest to do it. A list for clubs with "inland" written at the top or "tidal" would surely make not only better numbers for clubs who don't adjust, but a better starting point for those who do, or want to. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 3:54pm
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What would be ideal would be if clubs grouped together with other clubs of similar water characteristics. Even inland there can be significant variation. For example my local club of Hunts is completely different to Grafham in most conditions and when the wind picks up at Grafham there are definite waves that you can use whereas at Hunts we never get anything like that. I know the 'great lakes' is there for the big inland waters but perhaps other club should look to make contact. They don;t even need to be that local in my view. Even the tidal clubs must know of other tidal clubs where the conditions are similar enough even if they are not identical. They can then look at their recommended number from the PYS site and possibly form a better opinion of what might be a suitable number of the 'published' PY is clearly not right. I know I live in a dream world, most clubs are far too protective and inward looking to think of this..... ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: Do Different
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 4:05pm
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I don't know if you live in a dream world or not but perhaps rather than being protective or inward looking most clubs simply don't have anybody prepared to crunch numbers to that extent. Why look for conspiracy & evil when apathy offers an obvious answer.
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Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 4:08pm
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I spent a bit of time mulling over doing some better categorisation of water types, but it was just getting so complicated. Water area is a really big deal too, whether its a roll tacking bonanza or whether there's room for fast boats to stretch their legs, and current is perhaps an even bigger problem for small boats on rivers as on the sea... Maybe in a few years it will be possible to type in a few parameters like water area, wave height, current strength and get a personalised set of numbers for your water.
But another issue is that although it would be possible to produce different water numbers for the likes of say Solos, Phantoms and Lasers, if you consider classes that are already pretty marginal on data then you wouldn't have numbers at all for various water types, and so you'd have to be mixing two types of numbers. Its something that's definitely on the agenda, but the amount of data coming back isn't that great at the moment, which is definitely a problem for puting more granularity in. |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 6:18pm
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Your point about amount of data is well put, Jim, and sadly does rather knock the idea on the head.
Maybe what we need is a list of clubs with sailing area and location with a link to what yardsticks are being spat out, so a sailing secretary can easily find out what clubs might be similar and compare returns easily. No idea how you would go about doing this! ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 30 Jan 16 at 6:46pm
Users of the PYS online site has the capability of comparing numbers from several clubs. Also looking at having a map of all club locations attached to it. It might be neat to have some categories so you can distinguish types of water. I'll have to suggest something. Have to work out suitable categories too. |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 31 Jan 16 at 8:56am
That is more what I was getting at so the number crunching is already done to a greater extent. ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: Vronny
Date Posted: 01 Feb 16 at 4:56pm
| Does anyone know when the new PY numbers will be issued? It's usually around the time of the Dinghy Show but I think they got them out just before that last year. |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 01 Feb 16 at 7:58pm
| The target is the show as usual. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 5:16pm
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C'mon Jimchap - spill the beans! You know you want to, how about a nice brown envelope filled with lettuce to do somethng about that bloody Icon misnomer.. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 9:06pm
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Mr
Fuller For example I think the GL number for the
Phantom is 1008 and ...Icon is 990 etc etc. Job already done really
? Judge for yourself - check them out. Bit like when
radials (the tires that is) came along and made cross-ply's yesterdays
technology. We all learn and adapt ....or die in the end. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 10:46pm
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Some clubs have never heard of GL and if you mentions lakes, great or otherwise, they'd laugh.
What's needed is an independent handicap dinghy racing body to oversee the whole process, one with enthusiasm. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 11:39pm
Normally I would have an idea by now, but the process is running late for one reason and another. Seeing as we are an enthusiastic and independent bunch, sometimes it takes longer than other times to reach a consensus. |
Posted By: chrisg
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 8:01am
Have you had much to do with calculating either set of numbers or are you just guessing again?
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Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 10:28am
ftfy ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:07am
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Have you had much to do with calculating either set of numbers or are you just guessing again?
I'm surprised that you think the PN ones still matter as much today when all the key handicap events are using the (modified) GL ones already... However to address your implication directly ...... No I have not had anything whatsoever to do with either set as I'm sure you must know, (we just race boats). There should be no bias towards or against any class just a consistent and appropriate method applied in any event. No - the elephants in the room concern the selection (or not) and processing of raw numbers with little question ... sampling theory stuff if you like and the GL approach applies just a bit more statistical common sense in this area frankly. Are you saying the Phantom is properly represented nationally by the current PN numbers for example ? Sure decent helms in that class can beat a class wide average handicap - and so what. Half of them roughly should be capable of doing so - same as any other class of course. Or if you must - Icon which is a bit closer to my own interests if you must imply I or others would fiddle them ditto. Are you therefore suggesting now that the Great Lakes calculators are guessing ? Why would you suggest that is a reasonable question in my book ? Do clubs that do use but modify PN numbers themselves, because they find them way off the mark, guess or are just subject to good old 'friendly lobbying' ? ... All cards on the table please. |
Posted By: Steve411
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:36am
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Isn't it the case that the PY and Great Lakes numbers are based on quite different assumptions and therefore you would expect the numbers to be different? As I recall the PY number is based on the average of the sailors for each class of boat, while the Great Lakes numbers are based on what a top helm/crew could hope to achieve. ------------- Steve B RS300 411 https://www.facebook.com/groups/55859303803" rel="nofollow - RS300 page |
Posted By: chrisg
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:47am
Without getting drawn in to a protracted debate, thank you. That answers my question. You are guessing again. Looking through last years PY returns it seems the majority of clubs are using the national numbers still for club racing so yes I would say the RYA numbers are still relevant. Do you have proof that there is bias toward classes? How do you arrive at the conclusion that the PYAG process raw numbers with little question? Have you sat in on our meetings? You seem to be just typing stuff with zero real knowledge of the thing you are writing about. And FYI, the Great Lakes group uses the RYA's PYS website for their initial calculations, then tweak as we see fit depending on last seasons event results. Not surprisingly the database throws out slightly different numbers for the Great Lakes group as there are only 6 or so clubs results grouped together. But to say GL approach applies more statistical common sense is a nonsense. They are both trying to achieve different things and come up with different numbers because of that. Is that so difficult to understand? I'm not implying you or anyone else fiddle with the numbers - how could you? The RYA put no pressure on the PYAG whatsoever to publish any particular number for any class, and being on that group as well yes I do know that for a fact. I know exactly how both sets of numbers are produced and I'm confident that they work well for their intended markets. RYA numbers for general club racing and the Great Lakes numbers for large championship handicap events on lakes. PYAG/RYA are hoping that other clubs group together and do similar to the Great Lakes for their water types, but its down to them how to use the system best. We are supplying them with the tools, just hope they decide they are useful. Far more clubs are adjusting now than a few years ago but its still in the minority. Last post from me on the subject (for this year anyway). Enjoy the new numbers when they arrive. edited to add : Steve posted while I was typing my response. Yes, that is the theory. Great Lakes tries to tweak the numbers to the fastest of each class.
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Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:50am
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The PY system is not an average of all sailors, but an average of something that probably works out to between top half and two thirds of the fleet, depending on how variable the crew skill in the fleet is.
I don't think, from what I can see in a quick glance at the returns, that Great Lakes numbers are very widely used. The vast majority of racing in the country looks to be based on RYA published numbers. Speaking strictly personally, I find the Great Lakes system distinctly odd. The base concept of using data from a group of clubs with similar water is very sound if you have enough data. However targeting numbers for the front of fleet working from observed performance seems to me a distinctly dubious exercise from a statistical point of view, and it also feels a little bit like people in smoke filled rooms deciding what handicaps *ought* to be, rather than what the numbers say, which is not an approach I would ever be comfortable with. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 12:25pm
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Well to me whichever system is used, both represent the biggest source of genuine angst amongst people I like and it genuinely does grieve me when they get upset, it also grieves me when I see folk penalised unfairly, whilst others 'use' the system to their own pathetic ends, I've said it before I'll say it again, your stupid system is f**ked and does nothing but harm to a sport I really enjoy.
The only fair method would be a permanent number issued to a boat and an earned variable number ascribed to the individual sailor according to ability, like golf and until that time arrives you'll have nothing but hatred from some, ambivalence from others and universal discord generally. Your enthusiasm I regret to say is misspent. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: Drylander
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:15pm
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Why is it every year this forum goes over exactly the same ground, we all know py racing is a joke! go and race against the same boats then you will know your true position. It seems the Solos and Merlins are getting a forum grilling again, the amount of sailing talent in these two classes is massive so its going to effect the py but that should not be at the expense of the club sailor. A Phantom won both races at the Stevie Nics last week but that does not mean everyone can sail to that py. Also how does a one design like a Laser suddenly get faster ? Lesson here go class racing !! |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:21pm
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I find the Great Lakes system distinctly
odd.... |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:36pm
Correction... Over the last few years the Laser PY has got progressively slower DESPITE the new controls making the boat easier to handle for mere mortals. The GL Laser PY is something like 1115 too so a fair bit slower than the standard PY of 1091. As has been pointed out, for those who do not have an option of class racing PY racing is the way forward, or should they be forced to sail a 'supported class'. If that was forced on me I would walk away from the sport tomorrow. ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:59pm
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It makes no logic to anyone however you try to explain it to them, that a boat can get 'slower' without any appreciable change.
I've said this before and I'll say it again, the original system upon which this is based, used one standard that didn't alter about which the rest pivot, that should be the case with a boat with the sheer volume and longevity of the Laser, it should be fixed and fixed at 1080 or whatever it was when the XD thing made a difference, all the time it gets slower everything else will be forced to come in line or in the cases where they don't, the anomalies begin. I don't trust the Great Lakes, their motivation is to get entrants, so making the laser appear to be slow then claiming they are aiming for 'better' helms is absurd. It also fails to encourage folk like me, who wether it be the EPS or the Solution, compete with Lasers and have a tough enough time at 1091 and 1080 before that so what would the point be in taking them on and allegedly good helms at 1115? Bollox and more bollox sorry they are no better than PYAG just a different kind of bollockery.. And why do we keep going round and round with it? precisely because it is so f**ked up and the people involved so... <insert appropriate derogatory comment> ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: Steve411
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 5:25pm
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I don't believe it is b**locks - only a couple of people on here seem to want to push that message. The rest accept it's not perfect but gives a reasonable basis for racing across classes. ------------- Steve B RS300 411 https://www.facebook.com/groups/55859303803" rel="nofollow - RS300 page |
Posted By: rich96
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 6:49pm
The Laser PY was 1078 not that long ago - its a massive change Its now approx. OK pace according to the PY - that cant be right |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 6:56pm
Maybe the average tiller waggler standard in the OK is significantly better than the average tiller waggler standard in the Laser fleet. We have some pretty slow Lasers at Hunts, regularly finishing with or behind the Solo fleet. ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 7:30pm
Bang on Steve. |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 8:10pm
Agree. The Laser handicap has been done to death on previous threads. 5 years ago or more, the Laser handicap was static because people simply returned the handicaps they were using, so, like other classes, it didn't move much. Once it became timings based, it became clear that the Laser, on average, wasn't winning much. That had been clear to club racers for a long time, anyway, just go back and look at the results of the big winter opens. So, do you more one class, or keep that one and move 50 or more in relation to it? Is it right now? I don't know,maybe it will drop back a little. The problem is, a class like the OK has far fewer returns. Chris or Jim may be able to say whether that means there is lower certainty to the numbers spat out, so it doesn't get moved as much. Or maybe OK helms are on average better, as as suggested. As for a mix of PY and personal, that would be like doing golf handicapping where some people had golf clubs and a golf ball while others were playing with a tennis racket and squeeky toy. Pretty hard to get a true feel of ability between the 2. Add in another 50 combinations of bat and ball on top, then. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: Jeepers
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:38pm
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TBH, the Laser PY has always been an issue. As it was years back, some of the top Laser sailors in the country could not compete on PY against other classes when almost everyone knew, the sailors were probably amongst the best in the country/Europe/world. The balance needed to be addressed. IMHO our top Laser sailors should be appearing near the top of these handicap events because, frankly, they are amongst the best sailors out there. Show me how many sailors sailing a Laser have won the BM! There is one (ex) leading the British Americas Cup Challenge now! I haven't raced Lasers since the early 90's, but I think all these Slowlo and Blouse sailors (and to be honest most other sailors) really rather need to know their place in the overall scheme of things.
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Posted By: realnutter
Date Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:57pm
Factor in weight and you've got a whole new ball game... At 65kg, there's no way I could have a single personal handicap to cover a Laser, where I'm far too light, and a Topper where I'm probably at the upper end of the weight range... My skills in both are equally shocking!  |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 4:01am
Not an issue, its a mystery. There is so much data for Laser and Solo handicaps that there is no chance of a problem with the statistics per se. Once the online system has settled down and the more major improvements on the jobs list have been made then for the first time it may be possible to do some detailed analysis of how performance varies across classes. I have done some sudying at my club, which may or may not be representative. I had enough data to get an idea of trends, but not enough to reach firm conclusions. Also the detailed numerical analysis is beyond my pay grade. It needs much more sophisticated analysis than I was getting from Excel. My club Laser and Solo fleets are reasonably equally strong, and when people swap between the two classes either way they seem to end up in much the same place in the pecking order. But the time difference between mid Laser fleet and top of Laser fleet is much less than top of Solo fleet and mid Solo fleet. Similarly the time difference between say middle third and bottom third Laser fleet is greater than matching Solo fleet. And note that I have pretty good confidence that crew skill is pretty even. To put it in statistical terms the Laser results have a much greater skew factor than the Solo results at my club, and the evidence suggests, not very conclusively due to not enough data, that this is not due to crew skill variations. The effect is pretty visible though. If I sit down with a spreadsheet and a bunch of my club series results, then if I pick a handicap that brings the top Laser sailors what I reckon would be their fair share of race wins then the top quarter of the results are simply stuffed with Lasers: the Laser fleet as a whole is quite comically advantaged. Its clearly and obviously wrong. But if I pick a handicap in which say the top halves of the two fleets are evenly mixed up together then the top Lasers don't win as many races as I think they ought. This is just my club though. It may not be reflected nationally. If it is though the implications are challenging. If a handicap can only be "right" for part of the fleet, where do you pitch it? At the average fleet, greatest good for the greatest number? At the top half of the fleet who perhaps care more? Do you try and pitch it at race winners which is firstly a statistical nonsense and secondly impossible for smaller classes? The "fair" solution, if "fair" meant that sailors of equal ability got equal results right through the fleets, would actually be to have variable handicaps through the fleets so that the top Solo sailors have a harsher number than the mid feet Solo sailors. Don't fancy trying to explain *why* that would be fair on this or any other forum... |
Posted By: rich96
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:40am
All valid points but also the 'all round ability' of the Laser must also be a factor - i.e its ok in the lights and ok in the breeze but not really brilliant in any one set of conditions. Hence it will lose out to another class in most conditions on any particular day |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 7:07am
| How about a probabilistic PY, ie not a single PY for a class but a range of PYs with probabilities e.g. 10% chance a Laser PY is 1070, 30% it is 1090 etc. then calculate the results to show there was, say, a 5% chance you won, 27% chance you were 2nd etc. then add up the cumulative scores to get an aggregate score for the race. ;-) |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 7:37am
I like that! There was a 90% chance I came 8th on Sunday, having spent some time standing on the bottom of the boat with the mast in the mud, but a 9% chance I should have been 9th and a 1% chance 7th.could make the results sheet complex, but would provide a more realistic picture of a race. Prize giving at the winter handicap events will be wonderful! ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 11:59am
|
edited to add : Steve posted while I was
typing my response. Yes, that is the theory. Great Lakes tries to tweak
the numbers to the fastest of each class. ... and that weights it towards the POTENTIAL of that class does it not ? What handicap systems are trying to do is remove the class effect on results leaving 'crew ability' to determine who prevails at major handicap events. Is this not the aim of both the PN system and the GL variant implied or explicit as well ? Bottom line is the SJ series and other similar large handicap events that use the GL numbers do attract many of the best across virtualy all classes. They also sail good examples of each class (and not some tired old clunkers) - their results at these events should get much closer to the true POTENTIAL of their class relative to that of other classes is the argument. Just because some see the GL system as challenging the status quo (the nerve !) that does not mean their sample selection or weighting is 'guesswork', biased or whatever anymore than the traditional approach for PN is .... It is simply naive to suggest both systems do not have the same objective - or either could not be improved for that matter. Many of us consider the GL numbers are currently getting much closer to achieving that common goal - reducing or eliminating the effect on handicap results of the 'hardware' employed. You are all trying to do the same thing - select the sample that 'best' achieves the same goal. PN and GL just have different views on what are the most efficient samples to use and how to weight them. Is this not true ? |
Posted By: pompeysailor
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 2:14pm
|
"Bottom line is the SJ series and other similar large handicap events that use the GL numbers do attract many of the best across virtually all classes. They also sail good examples of each class (and not some tired old clunkers) - their results at these events should get much closer to the true POTENTIAL of their class relative to that of other classes is the argument."
totally agree - the SJ series is the closest to a uniformed level of ability (and quality of boat/sails etc) we're likely to get across multiple classes ------------- Formerly - OK 2145 Phantom 1437, Blaze 819, Fireball 14668, Mirror 54145 |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 2:28pm
It is also a tiny sample compared to all the racing that goes on, week in, week out across the country. Luckily for the vast majority, yardsticks are taken and used week in, week out and provide a way of different classes to race against each other. Because of the way it works, numbers will change, and again, the vast majority of people using the system understand that, will laugh when it goes well for them, whinge a bit when it goes badly, and then just get on with things. In my totally view, based on my own experiences, the system is closer to being accurate now than it was 5 years ago. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: pompeysailor
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 4:15pm
|
I don't think there is anything wrong with a "small" sample as long as that sample is as close to a fair representation as possible.
The nice thing about the SJ series (Great Lakes Handicap) is
* its not tidal which can influence results at many clubs across the country
* 90%+ of the competitors are (hopefully) competent sailors, so a more accurate representation of boat speed, rather than sailor ability
* its raced on venues which offer a mix of smaller lakes, and also large ones which "nearly" represent a sea venue (maybe not the open sea, but a sheltered sea / harbour venue maybe..)
* I'm pretty sure there was most weather conditions covered at some point
------------- Formerly - OK 2145 Phantom 1437, Blaze 819, Fireball 14668, Mirror 54145 |
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 4:15pm
|
Maybe clubs could usefully take the mean of the PY and SJ numbers? Also, when PY used three digits there was less implied accuracy, therefore maybe the expectation was different. I notice further up the thread that the the Lasers are arguing about 3 minutes in 100. A tight reaching marginal planing course could easily put the a Laser in a useful position whether on PY or SJ. ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:11pm
There lies one of the major problems in my experience. Many clubs will not deviate from the officially published figures because they see it as opening a can of worms. I don't think it's reasonable to lay the blame for unsuitable numbers on the RYA entirely. The sailing community have some serious culpability for not wanting to adjust locally for fear of upsetting the PY grumblers. What sailing secretary (in their right mind) would dare gives the likes of GRF a number he didn't like. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:30pm
|
But if the RYA say they don't have the data or resource to estimate just three or four geographical variations (inland, sea etc), what chance have individual clubs or doing a fair local adjustment?
|
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 5:35pm
On that,Peaky, I agree wholeheartedly. It becomes very personal when a club only has one or two of anything but Lasers. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 6:29pm
|
Sample selection is everything in
statistical work and is as critical, if not more critical, as crunching the
data. Go for a inherently flawed sample (i.e. not fully representative for
whatever reason) and you can forget meaningful conclusions however large
the sample or refined your crunching ....
'Size of sample' can become a total delusion ... simply referring to or increasing the sample
size to 'improve' or underline your confidence in the results does not
necessarily 'improve' anything at all. It is totally
illogical to justify conclusions only by reference to larger and larger samples
being used - the real qualification has to be 'Is this data sample as
representative as it could be ?' Could it carry or contain anything that
might mislead ? This is exactly why structured sampling is frequently
employed in some areas of statistical study. Far better, efficient
and more economic to have a small sample that is truly representational of the
variable you are interested in ... |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 6:35pm
In reality? Every one I've ever met... (mainly because I was sailing new boats).. But your point is valid, no club wants the hassle, we don't, we run a personal handicap thing at the end of the season, but for the most part go with the flow. They tried varying it down the lake and the angst level down there is quite palpable and folk do get upset, then they vote with their feet if the 'wrong' folk are beating them. Ego's can be pretty fragile in what is a pecking order sort of sport, nothing I like more than seeing my bloody name in the paper at the bottom of a long list of dinghy muppets and do I take stick for it amongst my ex windsurfing peers!  The fact is though not everyone has skin thick enough to take it and eventually the numbers drop away, which is a shame.------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 6:52pm
How many clubs can meaningfully generate their own numbers? Ours is a small club with a range of classes and a range of abilities. The range of ability is clearly not constant across the classes in any one year. Any attempt to change the numbers would either imply that a fat middle aged bloke who is having a go at sailing late in life should have the same chance of winning as a recent national champion, or involve deciding the results and fudging the numbers to fit. Luckily most of us don't take it too seriously and people have other goals than beating the spreadsheet. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 8:36pm
Exactly, so you'd score 8.08 points in that example. We don't know the precise PY of a Laser, but we are pretty certain it is somewhere between 1060 and 1120. So fit a distribution and do it probabilistically. Whilst we're at it, how about some graphical presentation of results - histograms or bar charts rather than boring tabulated results in shades of mauve. |
Posted By: rb_stretch
Date Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 10:01pm
|
I was originally in favour of the RYA approach of comparing more of the average performance in PY, but over time I have now switched to prefering the GL approach biased towards the top performers, because it intuitively seems most fair to compare the potential. Now Jim's analysis of different fleets can be used to support either case. Firstly for the GL approach because the distribution of fleets is not at all similar, therefore only the potential matters. Secondly for the RYA approach because it is much easier to sail a Laser to it's full potential than other classes, which must be more relevant for your average club sailors. This ain't easy..... |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 05 Feb 16 at 10:25am
Whilst I agree in principle with this, the problem comes in that the GL by and large sail course that favour faster handicap boats, why else would the Laser be 'slower'. The Yardstick should be set at the boats potential on its particular optimum course imv and it should be a challenge to sail to it, now I dare say, it's not easy to sail a Laser to 1080 on a wide open Lake, but it can't be impossible and it certainly can't be difficult to sail to what is it 1115? It's another example of where 'banding' should work. Lasers sail against in my case the Solution at 1090-1091 and it's pretty even course and helm dependant, so I would guess would be the case of the D Zero and Aero at whatever they are if they were in that mix, but taking the laser out of that banding and doing something else with it purely to swell ranks is disingenuous. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 05 Feb 16 at 6:19pm
|
The Laser in the GL series is racing against everything, including two handers, boats with kites, trapeze boats, asy's. So you have huge course and wind dependent yardstick challenges. PY would work a lot better if people stop trying to make it work for utterly disparate boats. If you just banded comparable boats, say hiking singlehanders up to some sail area/weight limit, the numbers would have a lot more chance of settling to agreeable ratios. Trying to yardstick a Laser against an I14 is like handicapping a horse against a bicycle. Maybe there needs to be a huge weighting in the returns processing? A race (series) between a bunch of RS500s and a bunch of Buzzs tells you a lot more than Rs500 vs Laser or Enterprise. |
Posted By: rich96
Date Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 4:47pm
|
Noted that the OKs were sailing off the same handicap as the laser this weekend at the Tiger - 1115 ?.
Are there any points of sailing where an OK is as quick as a Laser (except perhaps upwind in breeze/chop) ? 1115 for a Laser makes it slower than a 2000 ? The Blaze at 1070 ? - that looks a bit generous too ? (same as a 420) |
Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 7:12pm
Yep, puts a big question mark over that set of numbers as well.
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 7:48pm
|
Makes you wonder why Mike Lyons is so keen to promote his 'friends' at the GL series, very cozy relationship eh? ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 11:39pm
|
Mr Fuller ... et al IF you check ALL the handicap numbers used at Rutland you will find the organisers apparently made an ERROR with Jon Saunders applied handicap number - not his fault btw either. When the cogs next revolve there we will find out whether they actually applied it to his time - or not ! Other Blazes listed on the published results had the very well tried and regular GL numbers for the Blaze. Hardly proof of a cozy relationship if 'we' were only able to afford to get a single Blaze a 'special' handicap ! .. But I suppose dull reality when hard working people simply screw up a single line of data entry is far less interesting... especially if a more lurid explanation is to hand. Jon may very well be the current Blaze National Champion and rather handy (well you would be at 26 years old and 6'8" in a proper breeze) but on this occasion he had a few technical problems including a smashed gooseneck so he did pretty well to get around at all on the water. So maybe he did just 'nudge nudge' negotiate something a bit helpful for himself.... but I don't think struggling thespains are paid enough for that ! Now tell us ... just what is the GL number for a minisail ? |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 7:45am
An excellent example... what handicap would I be given by GL, when there isn't a PY? I've been racing it off 1220, but that has been based around how it does against Lasers. If the Laser has changed, then the experimental yardstick for my boat will be up the spout. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 9:47am
Who even cares? You can bet whatever it is/was as soon as I get in it, it'll become faster..
But Rupert again makes my point, your 'friends' at GL don't do the rest of us any favours, which also blackens the name of anyone stupid enough to sponsor that charade. Who in his right mind would use an insurance company that supports a blatant organisation of gerrymanderers? I most certainly wouldn't. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: blaze720
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 10:35am
|
I most certainly wouldn't. Well of course that would mean the white fiver in your wallet would have to see daylight .... I think they might even be relieved in fact ;-) ... and anyway would they be able to give you sufficient change in 'old' money ? All right then what is the PN of a minisail if you must .. or do you have one of those 'cheating' devices that give you an unfair advantage and more leverage over others and still sail off the same PN ? 'Fixing' the foils ditto (we all know where this one is going !) |
Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 10:43am
|
IIRC in the dark ages there was a lower PY for a Minisail with a sliding seat?
I only got the seat to work once or twice and never raced with it. I conned my old metalwork teacher into making a couple of the brackets that clamped the wooden seat base onto the grp gunwhale. At the time I was racing on a narrow river. Tacking every 50ft sometimes! Not sliding seat country. |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 12:43pm
|
I've no idea, some folk are using the topper handicap, which I suggested might be suitable for an old boy struggling with a new toy, but everyone laughed I've no idea why, is the Topper handicap favorable then?
I want to race it against the Miracles on even terms, now even if I have to accept racing against their three sails to my one and we go off scratch, that would mean somewhere in the 1200 territory and given the one and only time to date I've entered combat, one of them disappeared into the distance even though I won the start by miles, so, I'm going to start whining if it's not 1225 in fairly short time I'm sure, but at the moment it's off the water getting it's foils sorted. As to the comment 'I wouldn't' it's the Insurance company GJW or whatever initials they are that are sullied in my mind by association so I wouldn't use them, nor will I enter the Bloody Mary or Tiger or any other of those previously prestigious events since they are also damned by association in my mind and I tell everyone I come into contact with or can influence not to bother, so none of us went to the summer event either which some might have and it could have been a great event, but sadly not all the time the current 'brand' is involved. I bought this little thing to try one of the CVDRA events, they might be dodgy old wood botherers, but Arrogant Gerrymandering Industry Insider traders, they aint. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 12:50pm
That mean you might grace Hunts with your presence again then? ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: Cirrus
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 1:05pm
|
GRF Like you I do waste a few of life's precious seconds sometimes - though maybe not as many ... I checked the MS handicap myself. Well it seems there are numerous variants BUT some numbers are there for anyone to find ....... The (cheating) sliding seat ones come out at 1191 and the 'hike until you die' ones 1248 which the writer says 'I have found is rather too easy in a non-seat boat' and then says 'I've sailed in a light wind race off 1230 and come last and off 1200 in a strong wind one and won..... I'm certain you should be able to beat these ones for sure ! - See you at one of the CVDRA meetings in my own 'wood bandit' ... |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 1:06pm
That will depend on when and wether they are dog & pikeyvan friendly.. I like Hunts, thought it was a great place when I picked up my Solution there. That Brianne of Tarr that wouldn't make me tea was a bit miz, but she eventually came round and we had a chat.. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 1:09pm
It was the equivalent of 1248 back in the 70s. |
Posted By: Cirrus
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 1:28pm
|
.. for the unassisted hiking boat |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 1:36pm
|
Well that's probably the early minisails, it sounds like this one I've got with it's slidey seat thing that I leave centred since it is far too much hassle to move, never mind not fall off backwards when I miss it. At the moment I have a thing going between myself and a well sailed Feva and of course the Miracles which is all 1210-1230 the last time I raced it was really fun nip and tuck, it would be really cool if it was just who wins over the water which 1225 puts it squarely between the two and unlikely that narrow a points division makes a difference as against sitting on the bank watching your watch to see how soon after the Solo or Splash or Miracles finish to get an idea how you got on. Another example where 'Banded' grouping would make for fun. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: Cirrus
Date Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 1:48pm
|
So it must be, I'm told, a 'Mini Sprint' ..... somewhat faster than the standard offering perhaps ? Presumably it adds absolutely nothing to speed ...is that what you are suggesting - is the name just another example of 'marketing' hype ? Not using it does not justify a favourable PN allowence anymore than not flying a spinnaker in my book ... There is not a lot the old boys n the 60's and 70's could learn from the hype and marketing snakes of today imo. And in those days we never ever had any bandits did we ? - BTW I bet my vintage 'wood bandit' (without hiking aids please note) proves no more one than your own 'Mini-SPRINT'. |