Nationals Attendances

I've always had huge respect for the 505 class for always rejecting the Olympics.

On the other hand, when the topic came up here a while back I tried to find quantitative evidence of the "Olympic kiss of death", and IIRC it wasn't easy to find.

It does seem hard, though, to find evidence for the Olympic effect without cherry-picking, and I think Jim and Rupert found some flaws in my case when I claimed there was an Olympic curse on this forum. While there is (for example) the Soling v Etchell comparison that shows the chosen class suffering, there's other examples such as the Tornado v Quest B/B-Lion comparison that shows the chosen class doing much better than the ones that didn't go Olympic.

If we try to identify classes that we could use as a yardstick to look at the effects of Olympic selection on the popularity of a class, one good place would seem to be the boats that ran second in Olympic selections. That means we bring in the Etchells, 505 (arguably) and Fireball, which make the Olympic Soling, FD and 470 look bad in some ways. However, to be consistent we must then bring in the Vrijbuiter (second to the FD), Spicle (second to the Finn, IIRC), Quest B (second to the Tornado, IIRC), Laser 5000 or Boss (next behind the 49er) and Viper (second to the Nacra 17), and suddenly getting the nod to join the five-ring circus looks to be much better than missing out.

Getting rid of the compounding factors is a major issue when trying to find evidence for the curse. For example, the Etchells is a cheaper boat to build than the Soling (it was designed by a boatbuilder), has tighter class rules, and bans hiking. All that had an impact. And what of the Trias, the other main competitor for the Olympic slot?  Like the Etchells, it was not selected but unlike the Etchells it has not gone on to great popularity. Which one do you we use for comparison when we look at the Olympic effect?

The 470 issue seems to depend on what metrics you use; yes numbers in France and Germany may have dropped but without selection would the class ever have existed in many other countries?  While some classes have done well since losing their Olympic spots, others have suffered which may indicate that their Olympic status was a positive for them.  Surprisingly the US Star fleet seems to have suffered since the class lost its spot.

Maybe the nature of the Olympic curse has changed over time? Maybe now being an Olympic class actually guarantees a fairly strong future, for a while at least? I'm not claiming to have any answers, merely saying that there may not be any easy answer.

You're right about the medal race BTW. It's stupid that ISAF inferred that you need a cliff-hanging last race to attract spectators when "minor" events like the F1 world championship and Tour de France seem to attract plenty of spectators even when the last round is a dead rubber. And the claim that loading the last day and racing in front of a stadium was "modernising" the sport looks very hollow when one sees that the same principle was used in the sailing at the 1900 Games!