What we really sail

I really suspect that the 'Fast boats getting faster' element is dramatically skewed by the I14 and the Moth which, well, really are getting faster.

The slow boats getting slower, well - I suspect that is skewed by the junior classes. Case in point being the Topper which I believe was 1290 when I sailed one (V competitively) in roughly 2009-2013 and at that was already a benefit in strong airs, with multiple club race wins against exceptionally good sailors I really shouldnt have stood a chance against. It's now up to 1365. Is this because the boat has changed? Well, it's only sped up with the advent of decent 6:1 downhauls, a more powerful 6:1 kicker recently, and little reliability improvements (gooseneck, gudgeons, masthead) in that time, so that's a cold, hard, no. So, what's more likely being handicapped is the standard of sailors racing.

There has been a genuinely massive speed increase in the Streaker and Solo at very least with the advent of decent FRP boats since ~2005 or so, probably 15-20 point based on personal experience with a pretty good (154*) wooden Streaker, followed by an FPR rocketship (183*). The difference was all downwind, with the woodie faring excellently upwind, but sticking like sh*t downwind. So in this case - has the standard of sailor changed? Well, probably not, it's still a similar demographic of mainly old blokes with mainly current boats. What's changed, is the current boats are faster than they were 15 years ago.

IMO this demonstrates the crux of it is that what is being handicapped is a composite of: the boat speed itself, and the skill level of your average standard club racer. 

In some classes, the standard of club racer will be high as people will religiously race at their own club as training and the boat is a real all rounder (Think RS300, Enterprise, GP14, Albacore, RS200). This potentially makes the handicap go down in number, as they are some of the 'best' sailors consistently club racing and as such the handicap can only be met by the best in class.

Other classes will attract only elderly, non-open meeting sailors who potter round at the back of the fleet (Think - at risk of offending people - Comet, Wanderer, RS Vision, RS Quest), and as such the best in class is sort of adequate at best, in overall terms. In these classes, a 'good' sailor may be able to overachieve in handicap racing, as the handicap of the class has been dragged down over the years by substandard sailing.

Other classes - the good sailors will not consider club racing worth their time as it's better spent 2 boat tuning or with a coach (Think top level Laser Radial/Nacra 17/29er/49er sailor), which means that the PY may go up, or at least not be reflective of the best in class, as the standard of club racer is not representative of the actual top sailors in the fleet

Other classes will suit only class racing for the top sailors, and PY becomes pretty irrelevant as the top boats will be racing in fleets of their own (Think Merlin Rockets at Salcombe, or I14's at Itchenor or wherever their current hotspot in the Solent is)

Some development classes will have PY returns for boats of varying degrees of competitiveness (Think Merlin Rocket where everything from NSM's to Winder's is beign club raced, or National 12's where the DCB's and Crusaders alike are being club raced) which could lead to a handicap that favours newer boats but punishes older ones.

Or finally club racing doesnt suit the boats needs/strengths (Think I14/Moth/49er/Cherub, where a long ww/lw course is desirable to stretch the boats legs, and this is not always available), which will mean limited returns are available, and the Handicap is very much speculative/non existent/inaccurate and in these cases, either a win or loss is often attained by a significant margain.

This is all speculative, and I've barely fact checked the above, so feel free to throw some numbers/facts/abuse at me and tell me I'm wrong. Does anyone have a freely available archive of PY numbers from 2000 to 2020? Would be curious to see them and make some graphs myself if so, and I don't mind what format they're in!

Edited by robin34024 - 31 Mar 21 at 10:38pm

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robin34024 Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Posting king Joined: 03 Jan 12 Location: Lincoln Online Status: Offline Posts: 116	Post Options Post Reply Quote robin34024 Report Post Quote Reply Topic: What we really sail Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 10:33pm
	I really suspect that the 'Fast boats getting faster' element is dramatically skewed by the I14 and the Moth which, well, really are getting faster. The slow boats getting slower, well - I suspect that is skewed by the junior classes. Case in point being the Topper which I believe was 1290 when I sailed one (V competitively) in roughly 2009-2013 and at that was already a benefit in strong airs, with multiple club race wins against exceptionally good sailors I really shouldnt have stood a chance against. It's now up to 1365. Is this because the boat has changed? Well, it's only sped up with the advent of decent 6:1 downhauls, a more powerful 6:1 kicker recently, and little reliability improvements (gooseneck, gudgeons, masthead) in that time, so that's a cold, hard, no. So, what's more likely being handicapped is the standard of sailors racing. There has been a genuinely massive speed increase in the Streaker and Solo at very least with the advent of decent FRP boats since ~2005 or so, probably 15-20 point based on personal experience with a pretty good (154) wooden Streaker, followed by an FPR rocketship (183). The difference was all downwind, with the woodie faring excellently upwind, but sticking like sht downwind. So in this case - has the standard of sailor changed? Well, probably not, it's still a similar demographic of mainly old blokes with mainly current boats. What's changed, is the current boats are faster than they were 15 years ago. IMO this demonstrates the crux of it is that what is being handicapped is a composite of: the boat speed itself, and the skill level of your average standard club racer*. In some classes, the standard of club racer will be high as people will religiously race at their own club as training and the boat is a real all rounder (Think RS300, Enterprise, GP14, Albacore, RS200). This potentially makes the handicap go down in number, as they are some of the 'best' sailors consistently club racing and as such the handicap can only be met by the best in class. Other classes will attract only elderly, non-open meeting sailors who potter round at the back of the fleet (Think - at risk of offending people - Comet, Wanderer, RS Vision, RS Quest), and as such the best in class is sort of adequate at best, in overall terms. In these classes, a 'good' sailor may be able to overachieve in handicap racing, as the handicap of the class has been dragged down over the years by substandard sailing. Other classes - the good sailors will not consider club racing worth their time as it's better spent 2 boat tuning or with a coach (Think top level Laser Radial/Nacra 17/29er/49er sailor), which means that the PY may go up, or at least not be reflective of the best in class, as the standard of club racer is not representative of the actual top sailors in the fleet Other classes will suit only class racing for the top sailors, and PY becomes pretty irrelevant as the top boats will be racing in fleets of their own (Think Merlin Rockets at Salcombe, or I14's at Itchenor or wherever their current hotspot in the Solent is) Some development classes will have PY returns for boats of varying degrees of competitiveness (Think Merlin Rocket where everything from NSM's to Winder's is beign club raced, or National 12's where the DCB's and Crusaders alike are being club raced) which could lead to a handicap that favours newer boats but punishes older ones. Or finally club racing doesnt suit the boats needs/strengths (Think I14/Moth/49er/Cherub, where a long ww/lw course is desirable to stretch the boats legs, and this is not always available), which will mean limited returns are available, and the Handicap is very much speculative/non existent/inaccurate and in these cases, either a win or loss is often attained by a significant margain. This is all speculative, and I've barely fact checked the above, so feel free to throw some numbers/facts/abuse at me and tell me I'm wrong. Does anyone have a freely available archive of PY numbers from 2000 to 2020? Would be curious to see them and make some graphs myself if so, and I don't mind what format they're in! Edited by robin34024 - 31 Mar 21 at 10:38pm

tink Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Visit Member's Homepage Really should get out more Joined: 23 Jan 16 Location: North Hants Online Status: Offline Posts: 789	Post Options Post Reply Quote tink Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 6:05am
	Robin, glad someone agrees with me about the Streaker. I would occasionally get to the top mark first Streaker to be taken down wind by a boat going considerably faster than me
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iGRF Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Visit Member's Homepage Really should get out more Joined: 07 Mar 11 Location: Hythe Online Status: Offline Posts: 6499	Post Options Post Reply Quote iGRF Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 11:40am
	All the more case for computerised formula driven input, lets take the Solo v Streaker At the time I was messing about with Peakys "Fuller Number" formula I think it was around 2012 But the Solo was 1150 and the Streaker 1160. This was based on a crew weight of 85kgs for the Solo and 70kgs for the Streaker The Hull weights were 70 for the Solo and 48 for the Streaker If you applied a 10 % reduction in hull weight for example the formula kicked out 1142 for the Solo and the Streaker would become 1155. It would not be beyond the wit of man to do this and for the sake of me I can't understand the resistance.
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Guests Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Quote Reply Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 9:02pm
	Are you,saying the standard of topper sailing has plummeted in the last few years? More likely, I think, that with ten returns based system we are now seeing some overdue corrections. Not sure why there was such a dip in turnout a few years back, was it especially windy? Edited by Peaky - 02 Apr 21 at 9:00am

Rupert Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Really should get out more Joined: 11 Aug 04 Location: Whitefriars sc Online Status: Offline Posts: 8956	Post Options Post Reply Quote Rupert Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:03am
	Could it be that since the advent of the computer system, rather than somewhat static returns from clubs, we are seeing trends far more clearly than in the first 50 years of yardsticks? For the first few years we were seeing adjustments to reality, but that period should have passed by now. Some boats, which have fallen from grace, can easily be explained. For most others, blaming the helms or the weather seems too simplistic. Will we see the Topper decrease again now the RYA have changed the squad systems, which might put more top Topper sailors into their club races again? Time will tell, but it would take an awful lot of legwork to track down causes. Edited by Rupert - 02 Apr 21 at 8:11am
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davidyacht Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Really should get out more Joined: 29 Mar 05 Online Status: Offline Posts: 1345	Post Options Post Reply Quote davidyacht Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:47am
	Could also be to do with who is making the returns, open water favours the fast boats, restricted water the slow but nimble boats. I guess the point that Great Lakes tries to address. However in the old PY system these would only be one or two digit changes. I think some commentators believe that the PY system can forecast results to a far greater accuracy than can really be achieved.
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Jon Meadowcroft Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Groupie Joined: 26 Aug 08 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 64	Post Options Post Reply Quote Jon Meadowcroft Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:55am
	If laser and solo results disproportionately affect the statistics eg they provide say 25% of the data points, and the system is set up to equalise and for every dog to have its day. And my class has only 0.5% of the data submitted.... Then should I not expect either a laser or solo to win 25% of all races then held as they are providing more competitors? Or having given the best data they can, should my 0.5% class win a disproportionate number of races? It is only a game anyway.

davidyacht Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Really should get out more Joined: 29 Mar 05 Online Status: Offline Posts: 1345	Post Options Post Reply Quote davidyacht Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 2:21pm
	Meds I am sure that your success rate will be greater than 0.5% whatever ship you are in, unless your boys are out
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JimC Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Visit Member's Homepage Really should get out more Joined: 17 May 04 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Online Posts: 6662	Post Options Post Reply Quote JimC Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:04am
	There are definitely windy years and quiet years, even, when I did some simple research, windy decades and quiet decades. I noted that in quiet decades you'd get classes voting for more rag. Reckon the last few years have been windy, but that's gut feeling, I haven't done the research, so very easily could be wrong. I do think it possible that the new results driven PYonline system could be chasing the weather to an extent, but unless it can be demonstrated that there are frequent transitions between windy and quiet years, which would require serious research, on the whole its probably as much a good thing as a bad one.

Guests Send Private Message Find Member's Posts Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Quote Reply Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:57am
	The best I can find on wind speed trends are the following - if anything there has been a drop on average wind from 70’s till recently, but don’t have the last few years data.