What we really sail
Printed From: Yachts and Yachting Online
Category: Dinghy classes
Forum Name: Dinghy development
Forum Discription: The latest moves in the dinghy market
URL: http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=13754
Printed Date: 28 Jun 25 at 4:39am
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: What we really sail
Posted By: tink
Subject: What we really sail
Date Posted: 27 Feb 21 at 7:41pm
Probably not that accurate this year but the PY data by returns, the usual disclaimer there will be classes that mainly do open meetings.
------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Replies:
Posted By: ClubRacer
Date Posted: 27 Feb 21 at 8:00pm
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I think these figures are identical to last years!
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Posted By: Grumpycat
Date Posted: 28 Feb 21 at 1:41pm
| Funny that . It’s almost as if they are last year’s figures lol . |
Posted By: tink
Date Posted: 28 Feb 21 at 1:43pm
Yes sorry. Posted before I realised ------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 28 Feb 21 at 5:33pm
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Obviously not what I really sail. None of the boats I own are on that list... ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 28 Feb 21 at 5:51pm
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One that I do and four that I might on there... ------------- Spice 346 "Flat Broke" Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish" |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 9:07am
Me and half my club either. Solutions four of us, Contender four more, Vortex, my Farr, Alto, Vareo to name a few that spring to mind. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: seasailor
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 1:22pm
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I get that those figures are a year old, and I get that some boats have less handicap racing and more Opens/class racing than others but I've not seen them presented like that before and what strikes me is just how dominant the Laser/ILCA and Solo are, with 60,000 odd races between them and the next boat, the RS200, having <6,000.
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Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 1:49pm
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The numbers are on the yardstick lists, so no surprise exactly, but whilst Lasers and their sail alternatives dominate is expected, the high numbers for the Solo really show them to be punching above their weight compared to sail numbers. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 3:18pm
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Also shows that it is so much easier to get organised to go racing in a single hander compared with a two person boat ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: tink
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 3:33pm
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Very telling from the Dinghy show 7 decades talk yesterday no significant double handed boats have made an impact for twenty years ------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 3:53pm
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Given the popularity of the Laser and Solo compared to other classes it's not surprising that they have much bigger numbers racing but don't forget that those numbers only represent those racing in handicap fleets, I would not be surprised if there were as many again sailing in class fleets. ------------- Spice 346 "Flat Broke" Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish" |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 01 Mar 21 at 8:04pm
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These are from a couple of years back but I don’t think too much has changed.
First one shows the number people sailing different classes (on a log scale) - green are double handlers, blue single handlers. What surprised me was that although single handers are more popular, double handers get more people sailing (except for the Laser). Last pic shows that generally fast boats had (in 2018) a reduction in PY, slow boats an increase. Second one shows the exponential increase in popularity of classes.    
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 3:54pm
What we really sail, and the changing trends since 2012. A look at the number of race results used for PY returns, so I got only. What happened in 2015, was it windy?
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Posted By: tink
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 4:05pm
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That’s very odd, interesting to see / know if suddenly a number of clubs stopped doing returns reduced and a second axis with number of clubs returning. The supanova always intrigues me the association and Hartley’s are clearly working hard but the odd thing is all second hand mk II are always £4250 +/- a few hundred ------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 4:19pm
Don’t know how many clubs returned results but I find this plot interesting. Slow boats getting slower, fast ones getting faster. 
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 4:20pm
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 4:21pm
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Posted By: Grumpycat
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 5:01pm
Hartley’s business model seems to involve taking older boats in as px . So it means that have a big say in setting what the second hand price is . |
Posted By: tink
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 5:13pm
Except for the Streaker which explains why my 20year old wooden (over weight when some cowboy built it) was no match to the new much stiffer plastic fantastics, than and the nut on the tiller ------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Posted By: robin34024
Date Posted: 31 Mar 21 at 10:33pm
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I really suspect that the 'Fast boats getting faster' element is dramatically skewed by the I14 and the Moth which, well, really are getting faster. The slow boats getting slower, well - I suspect that is skewed by the junior classes. Case in point being the Topper which I believe was 1290 when I sailed one (V competitively) in roughly 2009-2013 and at that was already a benefit in strong airs, with multiple club race wins against exceptionally good sailors I really shouldnt have stood a chance against. It's now up to 1365. Is this because the boat has changed? Well, it's only sped up with the advent of decent 6:1 downhauls, a more powerful 6:1 kicker recently, and little reliability improvements (gooseneck, gudgeons, masthead) in that time, so that's a cold, hard, no. So, what's more likely being handicapped is the standard of sailors racing. There has been a genuinely massive speed increase in the Streaker and Solo at very least with the advent of decent FRP boats since ~2005 or so, probably 15-20 point based on personal experience with a pretty good (154*) wooden Streaker, followed by an FPR rocketship (183*). The difference was all downwind, with the woodie faring excellently upwind, but sticking like sh*t downwind. So in this case - has the standard of sailor changed? Well, probably not, it's still a similar demographic of mainly old blokes with mainly current boats. What's changed, is the current boats are faster than they were 15 years ago. IMO this demonstrates the crux of it is that what is being handicapped is a composite of: the boat speed itself, and the skill level of your average standard club racer.
This is all speculative, and I've barely fact checked the above, so feel free to throw some numbers/facts/abuse at me and tell me I'm wrong. Does anyone have a freely available archive of PY numbers from 2000 to 2020? Would be curious to see them and make some graphs myself if so, and I don't mind what format they're in!
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Posted By: tink
Date Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 6:05am
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Robin, glad someone agrees with me about the Streaker. I would occasionally get to the top mark first Streaker to be taken down wind by a boat going considerably faster than me ------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 11:40am
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All the more case for computerised formula driven input, lets take the Solo v Streaker
At the time I was messing about with Peakys "Fuller Number" formula I think it was around 2012 But the Solo was 1150 and the Streaker 1160. This was based on a crew weight of 85kgs for the Solo and 70kgs for the Streaker The Hull weights were 70 for the Solo and 48 for the Streaker If you applied a 10 % reduction in hull weight for example the formula kicked out 1142 for the Solo and the Streaker would become 1155. It would not be beyond the wit of man to do this and for the sake of me I can't understand the resistance. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 9:02pm
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Are you,saying the standard of topper sailing has plummeted in the last few years?
More likely, I think, that with ten returns based system we are now seeing some overdue corrections. Not sure why there was such a dip in turnout a few years back, was it especially windy? |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:03am
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Could it be that since the advent of the computer system, rather than somewhat static returns from clubs, we are seeing trends far more clearly than in the first 50 years of yardsticks? For the first few years we were seeing adjustments to reality, but that period should have passed by now.
Some boats, which have fallen from grace, can easily be explained. For most others, blaming the helms or the weather seems too simplistic. Will we see the Topper decrease again now the RYA have changed the squad systems, which might put more top Topper sailors into their club races again? Time will tell, but it would take an awful lot of legwork to track down causes. ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:47am
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Could also be to do with who is making the returns, open water favours the fast boats, restricted water the slow but nimble boats. I guess the point that Great Lakes tries to address. However in the old PY system these would only be one or two digit changes. I think some commentators believe that the PY system can forecast results to a far greater accuracy than can really be achieved. ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: Jon Meadowcroft
Date Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:55am
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If laser and solo results disproportionately affect the statistics eg they provide say 25% of the data points, and the system is set up to equalise and for every dog to have its day. And my class has only 0.5% of the data submitted.... Then should I not expect either a laser or solo to win 25% of all races then held as they are providing more competitors? Or having given the best data they can, should my 0.5% class win a disproportionate number of races? It is only a game anyway.
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Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 2:21pm
Meds I am sure that your success rate will be greater than 0.5% whatever ship you are in, unless your boys are out  ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:04am
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There are definitely windy years and quiet years, even, when I did some simple research, windy decades and quiet decades. I noted that in quiet decades you'd get classes voting for more rag. Reckon the last few years have been windy, but that's gut feeling, I haven't done the research, so very easily could be wrong.
I do think it possible that the new results driven PYonline system could be chasing the weather to an extent, but unless it can be demonstrated that there are frequent transitions between windy and quiet years, which would require *serious* research, on the whole its probably as much a good thing as a bad one. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:57am
The best I can find on wind speed trends are the following - if anything there has been a drop on average wind from 70’s till recently, but don’t have the last few years data.
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:59am
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Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 10:00am
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Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 10:50am
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Of course when it is very windy we don’t go racing ------------- Happily living in the past |
Posted By: patj
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 9:05am
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If you want the PY history going back many years, it's on each class in the CVRDA Dinghy Database thanks to Jim Champ supplying me with the RYA figures. Pick a class and then click its Handicap History link http://www.cvrda.org/dinghy-database-index/" rel="nofollow - http://www.cvrda.org/dinghy-database-index/ |
Posted By: robin34024
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 1:54pm
It it was possible for a mid fleet national sailor to consistently win competitive club races off 1290, then 1365 is no longer representative of the boat in especially capable hands. The boat hasn't changed, therefore the standard of the people who are club racing the boats must have. The handicap is altered based on clubs returns, which are after all dependant on sailors and boats, and in my opinion it's naive to think that the best club sailors in all classes are of the same skill level. I don't know if this is taken into account when PY negotiations or whatever take place. There could be a whole load of reasons for this, but I suspect the main ones are:
I think this is an extreme example of it, but its demonstrative of a bit of a broken handicap system. Not particularly surprisingly, the exact same trend can be seen with the Laser Radial (+40 odd points in 10 years), RS Feva (+44 points in 10 years), Laser Pico (+80 points in 10 years), and to a lesser extent with the 420 (+20 odd points in 10 years). It seems like too much of a coincidence that boats sailing with typically slow sailors, are getting slower, and if I was cynical I'd suggest something about all these being heavily RYA rupported classes. iGRF - I'd be incredibly curious what the 'fuller number' of a Topper should be.
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Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 3:24pm
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Fuller number for a Topper, with a 60kg sailor should be around 1260 (I can't be more exact as I don't know the displacement of a Topper only the hull only weight, I've guessed at 15kg for rig and foils but it's probably more which would increase the FN... ------------- Spice 346 "Flat Broke" Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish" |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 4:41pm
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Chatting today as we sometimes do when the b**tards are deciding what PY no they're are going to lumber me with this season, talk got round to the Laser which at our club, it's either a Laser or Contender that makes off with the chocolates and I mentioned the FN formula and how if you vary the helm weight it obviously varys the handicap.
The Laser number the formula produces based on what was the general helm weight for the Laser was 67-70 kgs and at 70kgs it was 1084 back then. (the year I first paid attention it was 1078 and one won the club championship) Interesting fact, move the helm weight up to 85 kgs which is probably more like the average for club sailors these days, and Presto, you get 1102. So there you have it, it's not because Laser sailors are getting to be worse at sailing, they're just getting fat and old. So all the constant returns are doing is building a database of the increasing trend to clinical obesity amongst Club Dinghy sailors and further vindicating the FN formula! Problem Solved, you can thank me later! 
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |
Posted By: epicfail
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 5:00pm
| The handicap history thing is interesting. My 1980 Europe races against a 1983 Lightning 368 - handicap in the 80's was 120 and 121 respectively. I'm now stuck with 1141 and he is on 1162. He is bang on competitive at that number, I have beaten him a few times, maybe I'm not as xxxx as I thought! |
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 5:41pm
So you were 1 point different, you are now 2 points. Not a huge change in 40 years when the Europe has sprouted carbon spars and olympic level sail development. Having said that, I struggled with the Europe against Solos inland, and bought a Lightning! ------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686 |
Posted By: tink
Date Posted: 04 Apr 21 at 6:00pm
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Everyone struggles against a Solo inland ------------- Tink https://tinkboats.com http://proasail.blogspot.com |
Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 06 Apr 21 at 10:25am
In our Easter Egg races over the weekend it was won by a Solo. he led 2 of the races on the water and didnt seem to drop back at all until the wind picked up in the final race when the quickers boats could get on the plane. This was against significantly faster boats as well (Laser, D-Zero, RS300). He is a very good sailors but is he that much better than the other sailors in the other boats? Just musings. ------------- Paul ---------------------- D-Zero GBR 74 |
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 06 Apr 21 at 7:53pm
We had a guy down the lake in a particularly fast woody, that in light conditions just ghosted by everyone even other later model plastic Solos, it had to be to do with the particular rocker of that build, the helm was a Silver Surfer Old School Bandit in a lake of Bandits, Miracles Streakers etc obviously knew what it was he was buying. When it's light different rules apply if you can't muscle your way about.. bloody annoying. ------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website |