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| Rossiter Pintail Mortagne sur Gironde, near Bordeaux |
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| Laser 28 - Excellent example of this great design Hamble le rice |
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What we really sail |
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 Topic: What we really sailPosted: 03 Apr 21 at 10:00am |
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Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:59am |
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Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:57am |
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The best I can find on wind speed trends are the following - if anything there has been a drop on average wind from 70’s till recently, but don’t have the last few years data.
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JimC
Really should get out more 
Joined: 17 May 04 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 6662 |
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Posted: 03 Apr 21 at 9:04am |
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There are definitely windy years and quiet years, even, when I did some simple research, windy decades and quiet decades. I noted that in quiet decades you'd get classes voting for more rag. Reckon the last few years have been windy, but that's gut feeling, I haven't done the research, so very easily could be wrong.
I do think it possible that the new results driven PYonline system could be chasing the weather to an extent, but unless it can be demonstrated that there are frequent transitions between windy and quiet years, which would require *serious* research, on the whole its probably as much a good thing as a bad one. |
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davidyacht
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Joined: 29 Mar 05 Online Status: Offline Posts: 1345 |
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Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 2:21pm |
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Meds I am sure that your success rate will be greater than 0.5% whatever ship you are in, unless your boys are out
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Happily living in the past
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Jon Meadowcroft
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Joined: 26 Aug 08 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 64 |
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Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:55am |
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If laser and solo results disproportionately affect the statistics eg they provide say 25% of the data points, and the system is set up to equalise and for every dog to have its day. And my class has only 0.5% of the data submitted....
Then should I not expect either a laser or solo to win 25% of all races then held as they are providing more competitors? Or having given the best data they can, should my 0.5% class win a disproportionate number of races? It is only a game anyway.
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davidyacht
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Joined: 29 Mar 05 Online Status: Offline Posts: 1345 |
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Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:47am |
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Could also be to do with who is making the returns, open water favours the fast boats, restricted water the slow but nimble boats. I guess the point that Great Lakes tries to address. However in the old PY system these would only be one or two digit changes. I think some commentators believe that the PY system can forecast results to a far greater accuracy than can really be achieved.
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Happily living in the past
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Rupert
Really should get out more
Joined: 11 Aug 04 Location: Whitefriars sc Online Status: Offline Posts: 8956 |
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Posted: 02 Apr 21 at 7:03am |
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Could it be that since the advent of the computer system, rather than somewhat static returns from clubs, we are seeing trends far more clearly than in the first 50 years of yardsticks? For the first few years we were seeing adjustments to reality, but that period should have passed by now.
Some boats, which have fallen from grace, can easily be explained. For most others, blaming the helms or the weather seems too simplistic. Will we see the Topper decrease again now the RYA have changed the squad systems, which might put more top Topper sailors into their club races again? Time will tell, but it would take an awful lot of legwork to track down causes. Edited by Rupert - 02 Apr 21 at 8:11am |
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Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
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Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 9:02pm |
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Are you,saying the standard of topper sailing has plummeted in the last few years?
More likely, I think, that with ten returns based system we are now seeing some overdue corrections. Not sure why there was such a dip in turnout a few years back, was it especially windy? Edited by Peaky - 02 Apr 21 at 9:00am |
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iGRF
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Joined: 07 Mar 11 Location: Hythe Online Status: Offline Posts: 6499 |
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Posted: 01 Apr 21 at 11:40am |
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All the more case for computerised formula driven input, lets take the Solo v Streaker
At the time I was messing about with Peakys "Fuller Number" formula I think it was around 2012 But the Solo was 1150 and the Streaker 1160. This was based on a crew weight of 85kgs for the Solo and 70kgs for the Streaker The Hull weights were 70 for the Solo and 48 for the Streaker If you applied a 10 % reduction in hull weight for example the formula kicked out 1142 for the Solo and the Streaker would become 1155. It would not be beyond the wit of man to do this and for the sake of me I can't understand the resistance. |
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