Pointless PY Pondering

Formula to apply for these two boats over first three courses, plus, the tidal estuaries, add in very light wind and a howler. You would be very popular.

Originally posted by Sussex Lad Originally posted by 423zero There's no problem with thoughtful discussions regarding anything, problem is when posters not only infer fiddling but actually state it's happening. I guess you're refering to IGRF's post of earlier in the thread. If you are then it might be more constructive to call that post and IGRF (or anyone else) out specifically as and when you think he's being unhelpful. Don't use inference  and innuendo to point it out. .....and Grumpy cat don't use your disapproval of one post to try and control and shut down a discussion that scares you by using ridicule and scorn.......if you think the discussion is pointless then don't participate. By the way I'm guessing you sail on a pond or lake? The world is now changing at an alarming rate and the conservatism in the sport is holding it back. The fear of new ideas, new ways of doing things and an aversion to people saying "what if? is not doing the sport any favours right now. "The status quo"  "it's how it's been done for 70 yrs"........  surely this forum deserves better than that"

Originally posted by Noah Tidal is not quite that black and white. Estuary and harbour tides (Chichester harbour - HISC, Itchenor, Salcombe, Exe) are very different from the open channel venues (Shoreham, Lancing, Mounts Bay. It’s a minefield.

So what would be be better?


3 or 4 sets of numbers that span most venue types.

or

1 set of numbers that sit up one end of the spectrum.

Originally posted by Peaky Originally posted by Sussex Lad So what would be be better?3 or 4 sets of numbers that span most venue types.or1 set of numbers that sit up one end of the spectrum. Probabilistic PYs.

I do remember this, but need reminding of the premise, as in my head it has turned into something Douglas Adams would have been proud of!

Haha!

1. Accept that no class PY will ever be perfectly known. Small sample, tidal effects, etc etc.
2. Therefore accept that there is uncertainty in what PY should be used.
3. Therefore accept that the Laser PY (for example) is not precisely (or consistently) 1100.
4. We can be reasonably (95%) confident that it is somewhere between 1080 and 1110.
5. An OK (PY1104) will have a bigger 95% confidence spread due to fewer boats and more uncertainty e.g. 1070 to 1130
6. Currently if a Laser and OK finish at exactly the same time the OK wins and scores 1 point and the Laser 2.
7. But the OK may actually be quicker (if a fairer PY is actually 1095) and so there is a chance it shouldn’t have won.
8. Instead, calculate the corrected time for the range of PYs and weight the result.
9. e.g. if there is a 90% chance of being 1st and 10% chance of 2nd, score 1.1 points. If there is a 50/50 chance of first or second score 1.5 points.
10. The further ahead you finish the more likely that you actually deserved the win (rather than being gifted it due to dodgy PY) and so the lower you will score.