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Cirrus View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Pointless PY Pondering
    Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 12:38pm

So why, if all is so near enough 'perfect' in the minds of some,  has application of  the Great Lakes numbers  prospered ?  And before it is suggested that they might only prove useful on 'great lakes'  as they are used well beyond that already.(... a bit like suggesting 'Portsmouth' numbers are only applied on the sea or even just near the town of Portsmouth).   It is obvious  that  a different group of handicappers are involved and their model is naturally different and very possibly better  .... so just maybe the sample 'engineering' applied or lack of it in the PY method is at best  just flawed (or could do with a real improvements / refinements if you want a more diplomatic interpretation)

Have these different groups ever formally met and discussed the subject ?   Naive it may be but Joe Public may at least hope for some cross flow of ideas ... Or is it the case of ‘not invented here’ and inevitably interpreting all possible changes or alternatives as challenges or threats rather than as opportunities to learn / improve ?

Handicap racing is significantly more important today than 40 or 50 years ago.   IMO these groups should formally meet and discuss.   It does and should matter.



Edited by Cirrus - 22 Nov 20 at 12:40pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 1:09pm
Never said it was perfect, far from it in fact, that’s why I pushers for adjustment.

Yes more groups need to band together and discuss and adopt mechanisms to process adjustments, I pushed for similar, the feedback I got from tin hats was either that of don’t mess with my number as it’s unfair (despite being shown methodology) or stats “gurus” banging on about not enough data but still ef and jeff anyway that they have a bad number.

I think people just want to moan and have excuses ready at hand rather than do the work.

It’s an imperfect world, people will race what ever the system, have a moan and continue anyway,.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 1:12pm
However you look at it handicapping is, and always was, about number crunching. If there was the will it would be easy enough (if hugely time consuming, any statistics undergrads out there looking for a project?) to take historic GL results and apply PY numbers to the elapsed times and vice versa and analyse the differences. I suspect it would reflect the choices made by the handicappers, the GL system trying to handicap the boats potential by prioritising the best sailors results and PY committee the performance of average sailor.

WRT adjustments, maybe it would be more acceptable to the 'guy on the pond' if the RYA published three different sets of numbers, say "Small Lake", "Great Lake" and "Tidal". The break points would have to be arbitrary to a degree but the decision as to which set were most appropriate could be left to the clubs (have a vote at an AGM if it is not obvious). That would help average out the CSF as some classes at my club have surprising adjustments (Solo +10, Laser and Radial -11, the Laser sailors are pretty good and sail in the handicap fleet on Wednesdays and Saturdays).


Edited by Sam.Spoons - 22 Nov 20 at 1:23pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 2:07pm
Not perfect, but not deserving of the bile thrown at it, either.

The GL handicaps have been discussed on here before, and even the creators have said they are not out to replace the yardstick system (they use it, after all) but to do exactly what is suggested by the PYAG. Adjust to suit.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 3:28pm
Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

However you look at it handicapping is, and always was, about number crunching. If there was the will it would be easy enough (if hugely time consuming, any statistics undergrads out there looking for a project?) to take historic GL results and apply PY numbers to the elapsed times and vice versa and analyse the differences. I suspect it would reflect the choices made by the handicappers, the GL system trying to handicap the boats potential by prioritising the best sailors results and PY committee the performance of average sailor.

WRT adjustments, maybe it would be more acceptable to the 'guy on the pond' if the RYA published three different sets of numbers, say "Small Lake", "Great Lake" and "Tidal". The break points would have to be arbitrary to a degree but the decision as to which set were most appropriate could be left to the clubs (have a vote at an AGM if it is not obvious). That would help average out the CSF as some classes at my club have surprising adjustments (Solo +10, Laser and Radial -11, the Laser sailors are pretty good and sail in the handicap fleet on Wednesdays and Saturdays).


"Small Lake", "Great Lake" and "Tidal".....this would be an improvement on the existing system IMO. When suggested before some folk asked what about estuary/river clubs that sail on the tide? I guess it would be difficult to satisfy everyone.

It's tempting, when thinking of new ways to to do things to try and make the perfect  system that takes all things into consideration and then, when realising it can't be done, to give up. It would seem to me that dealing with one aspect at a time would be more realistic.

When 3-4 seperate lists were suggested before the conclusion seemed to be that the PY Com did not have enough data to produce sensible figures for different types of venue.

Which brings me back to my earlier point. Whatever system is in place (including the existing one) it will require sufficient data from a broad range of venues......It's not happening now and as it stands it won't happen in the future either. The part of the system that all else relies on is broken for many venues.  The PY Com have made great moves to make it as easy as possible with electronic returns, it couldn't be simpler and yet there is still insufficient data..........

Could this problem be solved using punitive measures? Financial Measures? Supportive measures? Contractual Measures?

Edited by Sussex Lad - 22 Nov 20 at 3:29pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 3:37pm
Only about a quarter of clubs send in returns, this could do with improving.
Robert
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 3:49pm
It is simple, but as shown on here, that isn't the perception - parts of the system are quite opaque, mainly because the RYA website isn't the easiest to navigate.

So, would better communication between the rya and clubs about the system help? I know the rya have everything there for the asking. How do you get clubs to ask? Must be pushed by members who are using the system, surely?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 4:14pm
Hopefully all the big clubs are inputting data, I don't think my club submits data.
Robert
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 5:56pm
Originally posted by Sussex Lad

"Small Lake", "Great Lake" and "Tidal".....this would be an improvement on the existing system IMO. When suggested before some folk asked what about estuary/river clubs that sail on the tide? I guess it would be difficult to satisfy everyone.

The PY committee already recommend adjustments on an individual club basis so they obviously think the data is sufficient, what I'm suggesting is averaging that data over all the clubs sailing on broadly similar waters and applying it to the base PNs. The distinctions between the types of water should be obvious in most cases though would not cover all situations, however most tidal waters would favour fast boats which in turn tend to perform better when given room to stretch their legs and rivers and small lakes would favour slower, quick tacking boats. Call them "Restricted Water", "Open Water" and "Tidal" if you prefer, all sailing areas could be fitted into those three categories*. The purpose would be to reduce the skewing caused when a club has a number of fast sailors in a particular class and to remove the need the decisions on how much adjustment to make (based on the 'confidence' factor) or, even whether to adjust at all being made by 'Joe Solo' the handicap sec** and hopefully result in more clubs using the adjusted numbers.

* Clubs would confirm their water type in the returns and where a water may be between two categories, say a medium sized lake either an independent adjudication would be offered (a map and photographs of the venue would probably be sufficient evidence) to avoid Joe getting it in the neck again or the club could ask members to vote on it.

** Poor Joe gets all the flak from all the members and quits the job after a year or decides it's all too much trouble and sticks to the published PNs the following year.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 20 at 6:17pm
On a 20 acre lake would a 'Enterprise' be faster in real time, than, say a '505'?
Same boats, 'Rutland water'?
Same boats, big range, Sea course?
This is the problem with using PY without local adjustment.
Ent' would win first race, both have top crews.
Robert
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