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    Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 8:36pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Originally posted by Peaky

How about a probabilistic PY, ie not a single PY for a class but a range of PYs with probabilities e.g. 10% chance a Laser PY is 1070, 30% it is 1090 etc. then calculate the results to show there was, say, a 5% chance you won, 27% chance you were 2nd etc. then add up the cumulative scores to get an aggregate score for the race. ;-)


I like that! There was a 90% chance I came 8th on Sunday, having spent some time standing on the bottom of the boat with the mast in the mud, but a 9% chance I should have been 9th and a 1% chance 7th.could make the results sheet complex, but would provide a more realistic picture of a race. Prize giving at the winter handicap events will be wonderful!

Exactly, so you'd score 8.08 points in that example.   We don't know the precise PY of a Laser, but we are pretty certain it is somewhere between 1060 and 1120. So fit a distribution and do it probabilistically.

Whilst we're at it, how about some graphical presentation of results - histograms or bar charts rather than boring tabulated results in shades of mauve.
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Posts: 742 		Post Options Post Options   Quote rb_stretch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 16 at 10:01pm
I was originally in favour of the RYA approach of comparing more of the average performance in PY, but over time I have now switched to prefering the GL approach biased towards the top performers, because it intuitively seems most fair to compare the potential.

Now Jim's analysis of different fleets can be used to support either case. Firstly for the GL approach because the distribution of fleets is not at all similar, therefore only the potential matters. Secondly for the RYA approach because it is much easier to sail a Laser to it's full potential than other classes, which must be more relevant for your average club sailors.

This ain't easy.....
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 16 at 10:25am
Originally posted by rb_stretch

I was originally in favour of the RYA approach of comparing more of the average performance in PY, but over time I have now switched to prefering the GL approach biased towards the top performers, because it intuitively seems most fair to compare the potential.Now Jim's analysis of different fleets can be used to support either case. Firstly for the GL approach because the distribution of fleets is not at all similar, therefore only the potential matters. Secondly for the RYA approach because it is much easier to sail a Laser to it's full potential than other classes, which must be more relevant for your average club sailors.This ain't easy.....


Whilst I agree in principle with this, the problem comes in that the GL by and large sail course that favour faster handicap boats, why else would the Laser be 'slower'.

The Yardstick should be set at the boats potential on its particular optimum course imv and it should be a challenge to sail to it, now I dare say, it's not easy to sail a Laser to 1080 on a wide open Lake, but it can't be impossible and it certainly can't be difficult to sail to what is it 1115?

It's another example of where 'banding' should work. Lasers sail against in my case the Solution at 1090-1091 and it's pretty even course and helm dependant, so I would guess would be the case of the D Zero and Aero at whatever they are if they were in that mix, but taking the laser out of that banding and doing something else with it purely to swell ranks is disingenuous.

Edited by iGRF - 05 Feb 16 at 10:27am
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 16 at 6:19pm
The Laser in the GL series is racing against everything, including two handers, boats with kites, trapeze boats, asy's. So you have huge course and wind dependent yardstick challenges.

PY would work a lot better if people stop trying to make it work for utterly disparate boats. If you just banded comparable boats, say hiking singlehanders up to some sail area/weight limit, the numbers would have a lot more chance of settling to agreeable ratios.
Trying to yardstick a Laser against an I14 is like handicapping a horse against a bicycle.

Maybe there needs to be a huge weighting in the returns processing?
A race (series) between a bunch of RS500s and a bunch of Buzzs tells you a lot more than Rs500 vs Laser or Enterprise.
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Posts: 596 		Post Options Post Options   Quote rich96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 4:47pm
Noted that the OKs were sailing off the same handicap as the laser this weekend at the Tiger - 1115 ?.

Are there any points of sailing where an OK is as quick as a Laser (except perhaps upwind in breeze/chop) ?

1115 for a Laser makes it slower than a 2000 ?

The Blaze at 1070 ? - that looks a bit generous too ? (same as a 420)

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Posts: 715 		Post Options Post Options   Quote transient Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 7:12pm

Originally posted by rich96


The Blaze at 1070 ? - that looks a bit generous too ? (same as a 420)


Yep, puts a big question mark over that set of numbers as well.


Edited by transient - 08 Feb 16 at 10:37pm
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 7:48pm
Makes you wonder why Mike Lyons is so keen to promote his 'friends' at the GL series, very cozy relationship eh?

Edited by iGRF - 08 Feb 16 at 7:49pm
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Posts: 1635 		Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 16 at 11:39pm
Mr Fuller ... et al

IF you check ALL the handicap numbers used at Rutland you will find the organisers apparently made an ERROR with Jon Saunders applied handicap number - not his fault btw either.  When the cogs next revolve there we will find out whether they actually applied it to his time - or not ! 

Other Blazes listed on the published results had the very well tried and regular GL numbers for the Blaze.  Hardly proof of a cozy relationship if 'we' were only able to afford to get a single Blaze a 'special' handicap !  .. But I suppose dull reality when hard working people simply screw up a single line of data entry is far less interesting... especially if a more lurid explanation is to hand.  

Jon may very well be the current Blaze National Champion and rather handy (well you would be at 26 years old and 6'8" in a proper breeze) but on this occasion he had a few technical problems including a smashed gooseneck so he did pretty well to get around at all on the water.  So maybe he did just 'nudge nudge' negotiate something a bit helpful for himself.... but I don't think struggling thespains are paid enough for that !

Now tell us ... just what is the GL number for a minisail ?  Wink


Edited by blaze720 - 08 Feb 16 at 11:41pm
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 7:45am
Originally posted by blaze720



Now tell us ... just what is the GL number for a minisail ?  Wink





An excellent example... what handicap would I be given by GL, when there isn't a PY? I've been racing it off 1220, but that has been based around how it does against Lasers. If the Laser has changed, then the experimental yardstick for my boat will be up the spout.
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Feb 16 at 9:47am
Originally posted by blaze720



Now tell us ... just what is the GL number for a minisail ?  Wink



Who even cares? You can bet whatever it is/was as soon as I get in it, it'll become faster..

But Rupert again makes my point, your 'friends' at GL don't do the rest of us any favours, which also blackens the name of anyone stupid enough to sponsor that charade.

Who in his right mind would use an insurance company that supports a blatant organisation of gerrymanderers?

I most certainly wouldn't.
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