New Posts New Posts RSS Feed: 2016 PY Predictor
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Register Register  Login Login

2016 PY Predictor
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 45678 13>
Author
  Share Topic Share Topic  Topic Search Topic Search  Topic Options Topic Options
Steve411 View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 09 Sep 08
Location: Cheddar, Somerset, England
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 705 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Steve411 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 2016 PY Predictor
    Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:36am
Isn't it the case that the PY and Great Lakes numbers are based on quite different assumptions and therefore you would expect the numbers to be different? As I recall the PY number is based on the average of the sailors for each class of boat, while the Great Lakes numbers are based on what a top helm/crew could hope to achieve.
Steve B
RS300 411

RS300 page
Back to Top
chrisg View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 23 Mar 07
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 893 		Post Options Post Options   Quote chrisg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:47am
Originally posted by blaze720

Have you had much to do with calculating either set of numbers or are you just guessing again?

I'm surprised that you think the PN ones still matter as much today when all the key handicap events are using the (modified) GL ones already... 

However to address your implication directly ...... No I have not had anything whatsoever to do with either set as I'm sure you must know, (we just race boats).  There should be no bias towards or against any class just a consistent and appropriate method applied in any event. 

No - the elephants in the room concern the selection (or not) and processing of raw numbers with little question ... sampling theory stuff if you like and the GL approach applies just a bit more statistical common sense in this area frankly. 

Are you saying the Phantom is properly represented nationally by the current PN numbers for example ?  Sure decent helms in that class can beat a class wide average handicap - and so what. Half of them roughly should be capable of doing so - same as any other class of course.  Or if you must -  Icon which is a bit closer to my own interests if you must imply I or others would  fiddle them ditto. 

Are you therefore suggesting now that the Great Lakes calculators are guessing ? Why would you suggest that is a reasonable question in my book  ?  Do clubs that do use but modify PN numbers themselves, because they find them way off the mark, guess or are just subject to good old 'friendly lobbying' ? ...  All cards on the table please.
   

Without getting drawn in to a protracted debate, thank you. That answers my question. You are guessing again.

Looking through last years PY returns it seems the majority of clubs are using the national numbers still for club racing so yes I would say the RYA numbers are still relevant.

Do you have proof that there is bias toward classes? How do you arrive at the conclusion that the PYAG process raw numbers with little question? Have you sat in on our meetings? You seem to be just typing stuff with zero real knowledge of the thing you are writing about.

And FYI, the Great Lakes group uses the RYA's PYS website for their initial calculations, then tweak as we see fit depending on last seasons event results. Not surprisingly the database throws out slightly different numbers for the Great Lakes group as there are only 6 or so clubs results grouped together. But to say GL approach applies more statistical common sense is a nonsense. They are both trying to achieve different things and come up with different numbers because of that. Is that so difficult to understand?

I'm not implying you or anyone else fiddle with the numbers - how could you? The RYA put no pressure on the PYAG whatsoever to publish any particular number for any class, and being on that group as well yes I do know that for a fact. I know exactly how both sets of numbers are produced and I'm confident that they work well for their intended markets. RYA numbers for general club racing and the Great Lakes numbers for large championship handicap events on lakes.

PYAG/RYA are hoping that other clubs group together and do similar to the Great Lakes for their water types, but its down to them how to use the system best. We are supplying them with the tools, just hope they decide they are useful. Far more clubs are adjusting now than a few years ago but its still in the minority.

Last post from me on the subject (for this year anyway). Enjoy the new numbers when they arrive.

edited to add : Steve posted while I was typing my response. Yes, that is the theory. Great Lakes tries to tweak the numbers to the fastest of each class.


Edited by chrisg - 03 Feb 16 at 11:50am
Back to Top
JimC View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 17 May 04
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:50am
The PY system is not an average of all sailors, but an average of something that probably works out to between top half and two thirds of the fleet, depending on how variable the crew skill in the fleet is.

I don't think, from what I can see in a quick glance at the returns, that Great Lakes numbers are very widely used. The vast majority of racing in the country looks to be based on RYA published numbers.

Speaking strictly personally, I find the Great Lakes system distinctly odd. The base concept of using data from a group of clubs with similar water is very sound if you have enough data. However targeting numbers for the front of fleet working from observed performance seems to me a distinctly dubious exercise from a statistical point of view, and it also feels a little bit like people in smoke filled rooms deciding what handicaps *ought* to be, rather than what the numbers say, which is not an approach I would ever be comfortable with.

Edited by JimC - 03 Feb 16 at 11:54am
Back to Top
iGRF View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 11
Location: Hythe
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 12:25pm
Well to me whichever system is used, both represent the biggest source of genuine angst amongst people I like and it genuinely does grieve me when they get upset, it also grieves me when I see folk penalised unfairly, whilst others 'use' the system to their own pathetic ends, I've said it before I'll say it again, your stupid system is f**ked and does nothing but harm to a sport I really enjoy.

The only fair method would be a permanent number issued to a boat and an earned variable number ascribed to the individual sailor according to ability, like golf and until that time arrives you'll have nothing but hatred from some, ambivalence from others and universal discord generally.

Your enthusiasm I regret to say is misspent.
Snow Equipment Deals    New Core Kite website
Back to Top
Drylander View Drop Down
Newbie
Newbie


Joined: 04 Feb 13
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 11 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Drylander Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:15pm
Why is it every year this forum goes over exactly the same ground, we all know py racing is a joke!  go and race against the same boats then you will know your true position. It seems the Solos and Merlins are getting a forum grilling again, the amount of sailing talent in these two classes is massive so its going to effect the py but that should not be at the expense of the club sailor. A Phantom won both races at the Stevie Nics last week but that does not mean everyone can sail to that py. Also how does a one design like a Laser suddenly get faster ?

Lesson here go class racing !!
Back to Top
blaze720 View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 05
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1635 		Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:21pm

 I find the Great Lakes system distinctly odd....

That is what is assumed - but have you raced under the system yourself or spoken to the people behind it or who race at the growing number of major events who use it ?

The treatment of PN returns is really not that clever at all.  The standard methodology used uses far too many highly questionable assumptions.  It even ignores major key factors because it cannot quite get a real numerical 'handle' on some of them at the moment.  Thats right they are ignored.  It then institutionalises the historic method with some assumptions in tablets of stone (the 'easy' ones) - while completely ignoring other key factors. 

Those behind it then get peeved at the very temerity of those who dare query or question it.   The people behind the GL numbers and their approach, it seems, are ignored and those who support this much needed initiative ditto or worse.

Smell the coffee guys this one will not go away any time soon.  Organisations that ignore new ideas and developments or 'user feedback' don't survive for ever.  Most of us are taught to not reject new (competitive) ideas even if we don't much like them - don't keep telling the 'punters' they have never had it so good, your product or service cannot be improved or it is impossible to improve things in an efficient manner.   It can.  

The 'odd' thing here are some of the numbers generated by the current PN approach.  That is THE problem here. 

Institutions tend towards formality, bureaucracy, rejection of 'other' approaches, and become resistant to change, question or challenge over time - however presented or intentioned.   Not all adapt quick enough either note !      Until then it is quite reasonable to expect more events to use alternative or improved systems - if it does not work for them they will of course return to 'traditional' PN in time.......  Just don't expect a rush.      

Lies, damned lies and statistics ....  Wink
Back to Top
jeffers View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 29 Mar 04
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3048 		Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:36pm
Originally posted by Drylander

Also how does a one design like a Laser suddenly get faster 


Correction... Over the last few years the Laser PY has got progressively slower DESPITE the new controls making the boat easier to handle for mere mortals.

The GL Laser PY is something like 1115 too so a fair bit slower than the standard PY of 1091.

As has been pointed out, for those who do not have an option of class racing PY racing is the way forward, or should they be forced to sail a 'supported class'. If that was forced on me I would walk away from the sport tomorrow.
Paul
----------------------
D-Zero GBR 74
Back to Top
iGRF View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 11
Location: Hythe
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 4:59pm
It makes no logic to anyone however you try to explain it to them, that a boat can get 'slower' without any appreciable change.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, the original system upon which this is based, used one standard that didn't alter about which the rest pivot, that should be the case with a boat with the sheer volume and longevity of the Laser, it should be fixed and fixed at 1080 or whatever it was when the XD thing made a difference, all the time it gets slower everything else will be forced to come in line or in the cases where they don't, the anomalies begin.

I don't trust the Great Lakes, their motivation is to get entrants, so making the laser appear to be slow then claiming they are aiming for 'better' helms is absurd. It also fails to encourage folk like me, who wether it be the EPS or the Solution, compete with Lasers and have a tough enough time at 1091 and 1080 before that so what would the point be in taking them on and allegedly good helms at 1115?

Bollox and more bollox sorry they are no better than PYAG just a different kind of bollockery..

And why do we keep going round and round with it? precisely because it is so f**ked up and the people involved so... <insert appropriate derogatory comment>

Edited by iGRF - 03 Feb 16 at 5:02pm
Snow Equipment Deals    New Core Kite website
Back to Top
Steve411 View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 09 Sep 08
Location: Cheddar, Somerset, England
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 705 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Steve411 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 5:25pm
I don't believe it is b**locks - only a couple of people on here seem to want to push that message. The rest accept it's not perfect but gives a reasonable basis for racing across classes.
Steve B
RS300 411

RS300 page
Back to Top
rich96 View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 20 Jan 05
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 596 		Post Options Post Options   Quote rich96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 6:49pm
Originally posted by jeffers


Originally posted by Drylander

Also how does a one design like a Laser suddenly get faster 

Correction... Over the last few years the Laser PY has got progressively slower DESPITE the new controls making the boat easier to handle for mere mortals.
The GL Laser PY is something like 1115 too so a fair bit slower than the standard PY of 1091.
As has been pointed out, for those who do not have an option of class racing PY racing is the way forward, or should they be forced to sail a 'supported class'. If that was forced on me I would walk away from the sport tomorrow.


The Laser PY was 1078 not that long ago - its a massive change

Its now approx. OK pace according to the PY - that cant be right

Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 45678 13>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.665y
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz
Change your personal settings, or read our privacy policy