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2016 PY Predictor

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Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 2016 PY Predictor
    Posted: 31 Jan 16 at 8:56am
Originally posted by JimC

Originally posted by Rupert

Maybe what we need is a list of clubs with sailing area and location

Users of the PYS online site has the capability of comparing numbers from several clubs. Also looking at having a map of all club locations attached to it.

It might be neat to have some categories so you can distinguish types of water. I'll have to suggest something. Have to work out suitable categories too.

That is more what I was getting at so the number crunching is already done to a greater extent.
Paul
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Vronny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 16 at 4:56pm
Does anyone know when the new PY numbers will be issued? It's usually around the time of the Dinghy Show but I think they got them out just before that last year. 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 16 at 7:58pm
The target is the show as usual.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 5:16pm
C'mon Jimchap - spill the beans! You know you want to, how about a nice brown envelope filled with lettuce to do somethng about that bloody Icon misnomer..

Edited by iGRF - 02 Feb 16 at 5:18pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 9:06pm

Mr Fuller

We cannot possibly afford what it would take ... or be bothered.  And that is even before we get all moralistic about the lettuce donations you propose.  Besides most worthwhile 'handicap' events and an increasing number of summer sailing weeks don't use PN anymore.  The alternative GL modifications work well and are just as applicable on non 'Lakes' as 'Portsmouth' (a sea location surely) might, on non sea locations.   It just looks at the numbers in a different way rather than accept all the assumptions that go with 'weighing' club PN returns blindly while managing to not even acknowledge the numerous over bloated elephants that stumble around that particular room. 

For example I think the GL number for the Phantom is 1008 and ...Icon is 990 etc etc.  Job already done really ?  Judge for yourself - check them out.  Bit like when radials (the tires that is) came along and made cross-ply's yesterdays technology.   We all learn and adapt ....or die in the end. 

And I'd rather keep the lettuce thank-you...
Wink    

 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 10:46pm
Some clubs have never heard of GL and if you mentions lakes, great or otherwise, they'd laugh.

What's needed is an independent handicap dinghy racing body to oversee the whole process, one with enthusiasm.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Feb 16 at 11:39pm
Originally posted by iGRF

C'mon Jimchap - spill the beans! You know you want to

Normally I would have an idea by now, but the process is running late for one reason and another. Seeing as we are an enthusiastic and independent bunch, sometimes it takes longer than other times to reach a consensus.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote chrisg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 8:01am
Originally posted by blaze720

Mr Fuller

We cannot possibly afford what it would take ... or be bothered.  And that is even before we get all moralistic about the lettuce donations you propose.  Besides most worthwhile 'handicap' events and an increasing number of summer sailing weeks don't use PN anymore.  The alternative GL modifications work well and are just as applicable on non 'Lakes' as 'Portsmouth' (a sea location surely) might, on non sea locations.   It just looks at the numbers in a different way rather than accept all the assumptions that go with 'weighing' club PN returns blindly while managing to not even acknowledge the numerous over bloated elephants that stumble around that particular room. 

For example I think the GL number for the Phantom is 1008 and ...Icon is 990 etc etc.  Job already done really ?  Judge for yourself - check them out.  Bit like when radials (the tires that is) came along and made cross-ply's yesterdays technology.   We all learn and adapt ....or die in the end. 

And I'd rather keep the lettuce thank-you...
Wink    

 

Have you had much to do with calculating either set of numbers or are you just guessing again?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 10:28am
Originally posted by JimC

Originally posted by iGRF

C'mon Jimchap - spill the beans! You know you want to

Normally I would have an idea by now, but the process is running late for one reason and another. Seeing as we are an enthusiastic and independent bunch, sometimes it takes longer than other times to reach a complete cock up.


ftfy

Edited by iGRF - 03 Feb 16 at 10:29am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 16 at 11:07am
Have you had much to do with calculating either set of numbers or are you just guessing again?

I'm surprised that you think the PN ones still matter as much today when all the key handicap events are using the (modified) GL ones already... 

However to address your implication directly ...... No I have not had anything whatsoever to do with either set as I'm sure you must know, (we just race boats).  There should be no bias towards or against any class just a consistent and appropriate method applied in any event. 

No - the elephants in the room concern the selection (or not) and processing of raw numbers with little question ... sampling theory stuff if you like and the GL approach applies just a bit more statistical common sense in this area frankly. 

Are you saying the Phantom is properly represented nationally by the current PN numbers for example ?  Sure decent helms in that class can beat a class wide average handicap - and so what. Half of them roughly should be capable of doing so - same as any other class of course.  Or if you must -  Icon which is a bit closer to my own interests if you must imply I or others would  fiddle them ditto. 

Are you therefore suggesting now that the Great Lakes calculators are guessing ? Why would you suggest that is a reasonable question in my book  ?  Do clubs that do use but modify PN numbers themselves, because they find them way off the mark, guess or are just subject to good old 'friendly lobbying' ? ...  All cards on the table please.
   
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