Icon, Alto, XO, PYAG & sport decline linked?

He just enjoys rattling a few cages !  Its a sport in its own right for some on here..... and a few will always rise to take the bread off the surface

You/we  don't have to agree with him on everything but just occasionally a few pearls fall off the table.    The common mistake is thinking he totally believes everything he writes.  In the flesh he  is fine and has even been known to get the odd wrinkled and very grubby 'white fiver', that still lurks in his purse, out at the bar to buy his round.... well once he did anyway.    

Yeah, I'll admit to missing a smilie there, but you don't see many teenage Solo sailors or pensioner Topper jockeys....... 

Originally posted by Rupert True. But which number best represents the people actually racing week in, week out?

precisely! PY is an RYA product for clubs- not classes, not individuals and certainly not for winter event test grounds for pro and sponsored sailors

Edited by turnturtle - 22 Jul 17 at 10:15am

Perhaps new boats in any given class should have a reducing PY as they age, or don't count boats over a certain age.

So, the top ends of all classes are equal?

Well no - of course .. but better than mostly comparing the 'rump' of many of them where boat variability can be much wider still.  

Lets take the 'Old Codger' one design class - designed in the 50's in wood, 'well built' so it lasts and it has been updated over recent years through glass, then FRP and it is now made in epoxy and even with a 3DL sail for those with a few bob to spare.   More recent ones are tweaked and optimised by various builders to the limit of a fairly liberal rule base.  Easy enough for a wide range of ability as well is one of its attractive features.  There are literally thousands and thousands of all ages out there around the clubs and they make a very reasonable club racer etc etc.  You know the argument....

The PN returns show thousands of races and a lot of club participation..  So there is a lot of confidence in the handicap number.  There is a whole pile of returns involved to prove its fair.  That is right is it not ?

But most are old(er) now with mostly older sails .. and most of these never get out onto any circuit.  Only 3% are truly 'state of the art' ... so the 97%  out there effectively set the handicap numbers for all of them including those 'racy' ones - the 3%.  

So what is the PN really measuring ?  Some might say if you want a real handicap bandit just buy the most recent optimised boat of such a class as you can afford.  One that is a country mile faster than the old clonkers plodding around in many club races that each year 'reinforce' that blessed handicap number.

Now there is nothing wrong with this class make-up.  It is a great class, it is affordable for newcomers and provides great racing for nearly everyone.  The big 'but' is that a single handicap  for all is not really a fair measure of the boats potential.   This is just one of the reasons why there must be some 'structure' or selection in any statistical analysis.  Most development classes recognise that older boats are generally (but not always note !)  slower and they run 'classic' fleets and/or racing with different handicaps between boats on offer occasionally.  

But 'one designs' are typically 'improved' as well !  And there is another part of the problem.  A measurement based system is doomed to abject failure because of the same issue btw....   So I will argue only a results basis, and even then only is the sample is appropriately structured to reduce the impact of such obvious problems, can work.  This means rejecting many of the results available and incorporated now .... I'll repeat what I'd stated previously - 'more' on the data inputs side is not necessarily 'better' when it comes to reaching meaningful 'outputs'.