New Posts New Posts RSS Feed: Embarrassed L2 Sailor
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Register Register  Login Login

Embarrassed L2 Sailor

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  123 7>
Author
transient View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 21 Aug 12
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 715
Post Options Post Options   Quote transient Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Embarrassed L2 Sailor
    Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:45am
Originally posted by MerlinMags

We're never going to find an accurate comparison system when all the sailors creating the data are of differing abilities, 

I can live with that but I also think that some ways of doing things will be better than others.

returns that suggest a slower handicap should definitely be flagged for further thought.


....OK, I'm off to apollo duck now, I want to see if L2 second hand prices  are on their way up yet Wink


Edited by transient - 14 Apr 15 at 12:03pm
Back to Top
turnturtle View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 05 Dec 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2538
Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:25am
Originally posted by MerlinMags

We're never going to find an accurate comparison system when all the sailors creating the data are of differing abilities, on different bits of water.

We simply have to get Nick Craig to sail every class of boat, on the sea/lake/river, in F1/2/3/4/5/6 wind. Then we'll have an accurate datum to compare to.

Actually, it doesn't have to be a good sailor like Nick. You could use a crap sailor like me. So long as my meagre abilities stay the same, I could be employed to sail all these boats in all these venues, and the results would be equally useful.

If you can just arrange for my salary to be paid for 300 days of sailing, I'd happily solve the problem for you all.

I think the first thing we need to do is to send you off on a two year sabbatical learning dinghy skills from ever sector of the boat park.  After all, you're probably handier (or in my case not quite as crap) in one type of boat over another.  I know my own trapeze skills are woeful and my knowledge of what to do with fast pins precludes me from any stayed rig boats.  I'd hate to think what would happen if I applied my shabby boat handling skills to a foiling moth, or worse, my rig awareness to something like a Merlin or Hornet where you don't just shove it in '4th hole down'.  

Once you've completed your two year stint of sailing all manner of dinghies, ideally in stable wind locations with consistent mid-twenties temperatures,  then we can begin the process of assessing each boat using your homogeneous skill levels at the ponds and estuaries of GB.  

Allowing for decrepitude before you are put out to pasture, I reckon this is at least a 60 month contract with options to renew... best you now go set up some crowd funding page Mags.  

 I'll add a fiver.


Edited by turnturtle - 14 Apr 15 at 9:30am
Back to Top
transient View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 21 Aug 12
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 715
Post Options Post Options   Quote transient Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:25am


Originally posted by Oli

 Transient its relevant because the system we have is one that takes all those things into account, crew skill factor boat age and all the rest of the small factors that effect performance, it is after all a  performance based system so how can it not be relevant?  you seem to be asking for one thing and not accepting it requires the other, they go hand in hand.


Yes, you are right Oli. I didn't phrase my response very well. 

Obviously these things will always be relevant in the general scheme of the PY but in the case of the L2 the returned data over the last few years has clearly gone sour. The data that caused the 60 point shift is of poorer quality than data returned at the boat's peak........The sour data and the 60 30 points should be declared irrelevant IMO and be chucked in the bin. 

.......right, I'm definitely done on this subject now  LOL

Edit for clarity: When I say poorer quality I mean poorer in relation to it's purpose i.e. establishing the true potential speed of the boat.

Edited to correct typo

Edited by transient - 15 Apr 15 at 4:05pm
Back to Top
jeffers View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 29 Mar 04
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3048
Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:15am
Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!

That is a matter for you and other people at your club to bring up with your committee if you feel it to be grossly unfair.
Paul
----------------------
D-Zero GBR 74
Back to Top
MerlinMags View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 19 Mar 04
Location: UK, Guildford
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 588
Post Options Post Options   Quote MerlinMags Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 8:18am
We're never going to find an accurate comparison system when all the sailors creating the data are of differing abilities, on different bits of water.

We simply have to get Nick Craig to sail every class of boat, on the sea/lake/river, in F1/2/3/4/5/6 wind. Then we'll have an accurate datum to compare to.

Actually, it doesn't have to be a good sailor like Nick. You could use a crap sailor like me. So long as my meagre abilities stay the same, I could be employed to sail all these boats in all these venues, and the results would be equally useful.

If you can just arrange for my salary to be paid for 300 days of sailing, I'd happily solve the problem for you all.
Back to Top
sargesail View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 14 Jan 06
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1459
Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 11:22pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!


But, as Transient has found, winning because the handicap is a bit too kind is a little hollow. Just a fraction kind, and you can just about convince yourself that you and the boat are in perfect harmony, hence the better than normal results. I can, anyway!

But what about the other Topaz sailors?  Therein lies the rub of ignoring CSF in the statistical approach - or the sort of gerrymandering described here!
Back to Top
Rupert View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 11 Aug 04
Location: Whitefriars sc
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 8956
Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 9:10pm
Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!


But, as Transient has found, winning because the handicap is a bit too kind is a little hollow. Just a fraction kind, and you can just about convince yourself that you and the boat are in perfect harmony, hence the better than normal results. I can, anyway!
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
Back to Top
sargesail View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 14 Jan 06
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1459
Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 7:53pm
Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!
Back to Top
Oli View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 23 Mar 05
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1020
Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 1:47pm
Originally posted by transient

Originally posted by Oli

Transient, there are several factors that could affect a number.  It could be that laser 2 sailors are getting slower compared to everyone else due to either boat age diminishing the performance, or thee sailor age and their diminishing performance. It could also be boats have been moved on and the laser 2 is now in the hands of a majority of more novice sailors.  It's probably a combination of all of those but deciding how much each one affects the number is difficult.  


Yes indeed, I heard a similar argument recently....but why is that relevant? I'm not interested in a "Boat age" based handicap, neither am I interested in a "boat crew demography" or a "boat maintenance"/ "availability of spares" based handicap. All I'm interested in is a potential "boat performance" handicap.

Originally posted by Oli

Are there less returns for the laser 2 now than in than in the past? When does the drop of in returns start? If there is a drop in returns numbers does this correlate to a drop in class event turnout?  Something perhaps pyg could look into and maybe already do is to see if and when returns numbers drop if there a certain ratio between that and the Nationals turnout for all classes when a py number moves?  If so they could cap it retaining the class best average handicap and not its just current performance. That leads on to other issues too though.


Nailing the PY to a figure achieved at the boats peak sounds like a promising start. Surely, The PY should be based on the period of "best quality data" not on a subsequent period of "falling quality data".  If there have been no changes to the boat in 30 years then why alter the number?.

(sorry to go on about this)

If Physicists operated in this way where would science be? If they study the quality of a phenomena would they alter their view and say "but there are fewer scientists studying it now and they are poorer in quality so we've had to change the description in the text books"......not sensible.   

EDIT: Mr WB, I still support a data driven system.


Transient its relevant because the system we have is one that takes all those things into account, crew skill factor boat age and all the rest of the small factors that effect performance, it is after all a  performance based system so how can it not be relevant?  you seem to be asking for one thing and not accepting it requires the other, they go hand in hand.
Back to Top
transient View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 21 Aug 12
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 715
Post Options Post Options   Quote transient Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 12:50pm
Yep. I've made my point so I'll let it drop. I'm sick of discussing the subject in all honesty.

Thanks for the input folks.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  123 7>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.665y
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz
Change your personal settings, or read our privacy policy