Print Page | Close Window

Embarrassed L2 Sailor

Printed From: Yachts and Yachting Online
Category: Dinghy classes
Forum Name: Dinghy development
Forum Discription: The latest moves in the dinghy market
URL: http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=11952
Printed Date: 08 Jul 25 at 7:38pm
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com


Topic: Embarrassed L2 Sailor
Posted By: transient
Subject: Embarrassed L2 Sailor
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 12:59pm
I'll apologise in advance, the subject is the PY list. I get bored reading about the subject..........but I have a specific issue.

We've had a gap year because I got fed up with the whole scene but anyway: Me and the wife have returned in our L2. Even before our first race I suspected that the current new PY of 1065 gave the boat a severe case of banditry, and I was right. We had our first race this weekend, we were rusty as hell. taking ages to settle into each new leg and after each tack/gybe........excluding a single handed Hobie 16 (Well Done that man) we won the chocolates. We did celebrate but I'm now left with that hollow victory feeling. We beat folk that we should never beat, they are much better sailors than us.......when I say "much" I mean "MUCH" 

I am normally an advocate of handicap racing and I have great respect for the PY system but in this specific case it is severely wrong. I now sail a bandit and I'm embarrassed.

So my question is:
With a boat that has been extremely popular and sailed by skilled sailors in the past.
with a PY that has been stable for years and years.
That has had NO alterations to it's class rules over those years.
That now has poorer returned results that are totally accounted for by diminishing skill factor. 

Why alter it's PY?



Replies:
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 1:11pm
I would say because that is how the system works. At what point would you decide to stop the changes for a particular class? My suggestion would be for you to approach your club and request they use the old handicap to score your results.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 1:25pm
Originally posted by Rupert

I would say because that is how the system works. At what point would you decide to stop the changes for a particular class? My suggestion would be for you to approach your club and request they use the old handicap to score your results.


I'm in the process of doing that. However I do appreciate the difficulties this may cause. The argument that clubs should be altering for local conditions is (IMO) a pointless argument. The fact is that many clubs are dead against this and always will be........it's no good saying it "should" happen, we all have to work within the parameters of what "is" happening.

At what point would you decide to stop the changes for a particular class?

at the point a boat fits the criteria I've outlined. The alterations over the last 2 years as far as I can see are completely and utterly down to falling skill factor within the class.


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 2:17pm
I agree about local conditions - for most clubs it would simply be either a guess or personal handicapping. However, your situation is a little different, so it should work.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: Noah
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 2:39pm
As far as I can tell, there's no allowance in the number-crunching for CSF. The system assumes that everyone is Joe Average, doesn't it? In theory this all evens itself out because the muppets balance the rock stars, but at a local level this won't happen, the sample just ain't big enough.


-------------
Nick
D-Zero 316



Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by Rupert

I agree about local conditions - for most clubs it would simply be either a guess or personal handicapping. However, your situation is a little different, so it should work.


Yep maybe. The difficulty the club has is that there are other L2 sailors at the club. Why should they run the risk of upsetting those fine folk just to satisfy one grumpy old git. Maybe a consensual compromise can be reached.

...as an aside: Thoroughly enjoyed the sailing again. It was a fantastic day :-)




Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 2:51pm
You do need to talk to them first! And compare results.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 2:57pm
Have you recalculated the results on the old handicap to see what would have happened? Handicaps rarely make a big difference, maybe you just threw a six on every shift (and used up all your luck for the entire season!)


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 3:18pm
Originally posted by JimC

Have you recalculated the results on the old handicap to see what would have happened? Handicaps rarely make a big difference, maybe you just threw a six on every shift (and used up all your luck for the entire season!)


LOL ....No I haven't recalculated but the RO did say that the results were very close. I'm confident enough in my racing abilities to know when luck may have played a part, well most of the time anyway. Just done a quick calc (so i may be wrong, happy to be corrected) but the extra 30 points that have been added to the L2  since I've been away make 49 seconds difference in a 30 min race, this is one hell of a lot.


Posted By: Woodburner
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 3:38pm
Originally posted by transient

 
Why alter it's PY?

The very basis of my long standing beef with them.

At least you have the good grace to feel uncomfortable.

'They' certainly haven't any sense of shame at the effect their (and I so hate to keep using the term but CAG! 'computer assisted gerrymandering') is having in our collective world.


-------------
https://www.ease-distribution.com/moses" rel="nofollow - Foil fun


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 5:34pm
Ignoring the usual bleats from WB, my rough calculation is 20 points per minute in a 50 minute race, so your 49 seconds would tie in with that, really. It is quite a lot - usually a couple of places on the spreadsheet, I'd say.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: solutiongirl
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 5:40pm
I think you're in the enviable position of being able to have your cake (chocolates) and eat it (them). You've recognised that the handicap is wrong, offered up to have it docked and been turned down on the basis that it's not fair to others. Now get out there and enjoy winning, safe in the knowledge that no one can call you a bandit because you offered to take a correction!

The problem with the PY system is its all relative. A class that hasn't changed gets relatively slower against classes that are evolving to go faster. You can drop the numbers on the changing boats and leave the others the same or you can move them both around an arbitrary centre point. Net effect is the same.

And you can take comfort in the fact that every race you win is doing its bit to fix the statistics for next year's PY number...


Posted By: 2547
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 5:52pm
Originally posted by Noah

As far as I can tell, there's no allowance in the number-crunching for CSF. 

Of course there is ... the PY is a function of the craft and the average level of skill in that class.

If you sail a very competitive class for example a 505 you'd expect the average CSF to be higher than perhaps the average crew in say a Wanderer ... 

So if you are a sad individual who wants to win on PY get a boat in which the average skill level is low ... I will let you make your own conclusions which classes to choose ...


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 6:01pm
Originally posted by 2547



So if you are a sad individual who wants to win on PY get a boat in which the average skill level is low ... I will let you make your own conclusions which classes to choose ...


And if one still don't win, accept that maybe one is of below average skill level... or that the sailors in the chosen class have more idea what they are doing than you gave them credit for.


-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 6:27pm
Originally posted by solutiongirl

Now get out there and enjoy winning, safe in the knowledge that no one can call you a bandit because you offered to take a correction!

.


I like your thinking LOL Sounds very reasonable to me.



@ Mr. 2547

I know there will always be skill disparity between different classes. I also know it will effect the PY numbers to a certain degree......but the L2 situation is extreme me thinks.

There are still some very good sailors in the L2 (thinking Lancing SC) but they are now very few and far between. The ones that have stuck with the class aren't getting any younger though.


Thanks for your responses, food for thought.






Posted By: NickA
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 6:32pm
What solution girl says!!!!

The reality is that most people racing a laser 2 don't do it very well and/or have a pretty beat up one.  And when I had such a beat up one and was a total beginner to boot; I could still do OK in a blow but found it terrible slow in light winds ... so things evened out a tad.

The 2000 has a bandit handicap for anyone really good .. as most "really good" people have moved on to faster harder boats (like RS400 for example). 

The Laser 3000 also has a "favourable" PY for the same reasons as the laser2, which if applied to the V3000 is a joke.  I've taken a personal handicap for my V3k and if anyone objects to me winning, I volunteer another cut.

The Catamarans have it right perhaps.  The SCHRS system (http://www.schrs.com/) is based on absolute boat design, not on past results ... but then can't compensate for aging classes!

Basically if you really want to fleet race, find a class that has a local fleet!  


-------------
Javelin 558
Contender 2574


Posted By: GarethT
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 7:59pm
What was the weather like?

When we sailed a laser 2 (in the olden days) we were, in handicap racing, relatively untouchable on a breezy day, but nowhere when it was light. Factor that in before being too harsh on yourself.


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 8:48pm
Do "really good" people move on to harder, faster boats? That hasn't been my experience at all - if anything, they move into the classes where they get the best racing. Just look at the Solo fleet. But there are enough "really good" people spread around an awful lot of classes to give good racing pretty much anywhere there is a popular open meeting circuit for anyone barring a sailing god.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: sargesail
Date Posted: 07 Apr 15 at 11:31pm
Originally posted by NickA


The 2000 has a bandit handicap for anyone really good .. as most "really good" people have moved on to faster harder boats (like RS400 for example). 


If it's breezy it can be a bandit.  If it's light forget it!  Re moving on - you'll note the 2000 reps position at the 2012 and 2013 Endeavour then?

And of course lots of them sail in fleets (as you recommend) so some of the 'better' sailors results stay off the PY return.


Posted By: MerlinMags
Date Posted: 08 Apr 15 at 8:29am
Keep racing and try to beat the other boats by 49 seconds in order to get your own personal victory.


Posted By: andy101
Date Posted: 08 Apr 15 at 1:56pm
Alternatively you are a better sailor than the old handicap was giving you credit for. That is how I feel now the laser has nudged up a little


Posted By: seasailor
Date Posted: 08 Apr 15 at 3:15pm
Same goes for sailing an RS Vision.

We bought one 5 years ago on the basis that we didn't want two more boats so we would get one that I would be able to race with my wife, or sail it with my kids, or both, and it would stand up to the rigours of a beach landing. And to be fair it's done everything we wanted of it.

It was rated more or less the same as a Laser and we had great fun racing them at our club boat for boat. Even then there were a few noises made about our handicap - all good natured of course.

Over the 5 years its rating has moved by around 50 points (i.e. the RYA thinks it's got slower) and we're now significantly slower on paper than a Laser and more like a Laser radial or Streaker. This is nonsense!

I have offered, but the club aren't interested in changing the handicap and tbh I can see why. I mean where would you stop? The Laser 2 hasn't changed but has got slower on paper too as already mentioned. And I think the topper has got significantly slower on paper this year too, but not on water!



 


Posted By: tickel
Date Posted: 08 Apr 15 at 3:46pm
Wish I never sold my L2 now...horrid thing. Is it like buying an old car and waiting for it to become a classic worth money? Get yourself an D Zero, wait 40 years until interest in it wains, then bingo! I could be winning when I'm 109.

-------------
tickel


Posted By: rogerd
Date Posted: 08 Apr 15 at 4:44pm
Originally posted by tickel

Wish I never sold my L2 now...horrid thing. Is it like buying an old car and waiting for it to become a classic worth money? Get yourself an D Zero, wait 40 years until interest in it wains, then bingo! I could be winning when I'm 109.
 
You will have a long wait for a classic dinghy to be worth money.


Posted By: tgruitt
Date Posted: 10 Apr 15 at 2:35pm
Keep racing and picking up the chocolates!! That handicap isn't going to last forever so make the most of it.

-------------
Needs to sail more...


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 10 Apr 15 at 3:04pm
Originally posted by tgruitt

Keep racing and picking up the chocolates!! That handicap isn't going to last forever so make the most of it.


Its true that most Phantom sailors simply thought of themselves as Sailing Gods as they cleared up on the club trophies around the country - maybe it simply is your turn!


-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 10 Apr 15 at 9:27pm
....I'll get fat though Wink


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 11 Apr 15 at 1:13pm
Just had a last chat on this subject with a few of the sailing com. Seems they don't want to stray from the officially published figures, "can of worms" and all that.....So that's it, 1065 it is.

I've done my bit, conscience clean......If I hear any grumbles about my PY in future I can do the righteously indignant thing.  AngryWinkLOL


Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 11 Apr 15 at 5:32pm
Just don't buy any new sails and then you can feel good about yourself...


Posted By: Woodburner
Date Posted: 11 Apr 15 at 6:36pm
Transient = Known Bandit, it's official and on the list. Wink 

-------------
https://www.ease-distribution.com/moses" rel="nofollow - Foil fun


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 11 Apr 15 at 8:51pm
I suppose the basic trouble is that there is far more scope for sailing a boat slower than its basic potential than there is being a sailing god and working that extra little bit of almost unattainable potential from a design, so once the bubble bursts on a class as a racing fleet, the drop off is pretty rapid.
I'd say your conscience is clear on this one, though. Butter write it down the side of the boat, though!

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 11 Apr 15 at 9:13pm
"Banditos El Dos" in bright red vinyl


Posted By: Medway Maniac
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 10:37am
Originally posted by Rupert

I suppose the basic trouble is that there is far more scope for sailing a boat slower than its basic potential than there is being a sailing god and working that extra little bit of almost unattainable potential from a design, so once the bubble bursts on a class as a racing fleet, the drop off is pretty rapid.
I'd say your conscience is clear on this one, though. Butter write it down the side of the boat, though!

That's a very good point, Rupert, and the L2 is an easy boat for novices to sail slowly, when in a Wayfarer the boat would look after their performance better.

I'm also thinking Transient will be happier with his new PY when the wind is light - racing in those conditions will no longer feel such a mission impossible. Under the old PY system when the L2 was 109, we would have needed 112 to take on the local Wayfarer ace in light airs on a lake, while on a windy day we could have won on 102!

-------------
http://www.wilsoniansc.org.uk" rel="nofollow - Wilsonian SC
http://www.3000class.org.uk" rel="nofollow - 3000 Class


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 4:08pm
Originally posted by Medway Maniac


That's a very good point, Rupert, and the L2 is an easy boat for novices to sail slowly, when in a Wayfarer the boat would look after their performance better.

I'm also thinking Transient will be happier with his new PY when the wind is light - racing in those conditions will no longer feel such a mission impossible. Under the old PY system when the L2 was 109, we would have needed 112 to take on the local Wayfarer ace in light airs on a lake, while on a windy day we could have won on 102!


Although light wind sailing has always been a bit arduous we are not that bad in the low end. We are at the light end of the preferred weight for the class. If we get the light wind tricks right and do them meticulously it's not always a complete disaster. 

....and as we all know the L2 is a heavy wind star.....but that really is not much of an advantage and it never has been in handicap races. Bombing around in 6s and 7s is absolutely no good when every one else in the race has retired.


We've been in the L2 for 10 years now so we are not dummies when it comes to sailing them. 1065 may be correct for the average L2 crews these days but I know it's not correct for the boat.

...such is life.


Posted By: Woodburner
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 7:15pm
So another vote for a boat driven handicap number system?

-------------
https://www.ease-distribution.com/moses" rel="nofollow - Foil fun


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 7:21pm
A boat driven (measurement?) System would have every boat wrong, not just ones in this situation.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: The Moo
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 7:40pm
I suspect if Transient and crew top the bill for more than one annual prize giving, pressure will be put on the committee from sailors of other fleets within the Club to make the local adjustments that the majority of Clubs seem so reluctant to do.


Posted By: piglet
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 9:08pm
Happy to lose to Transient any day, it's those L2K's that needle me!


Posted By: Woodburner
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 9:25pm
Originally posted by Rupert

A boat driven (measurement?) System would have every boat wrong, not just ones in this situation.

Maybe, but with a committee of enthusiasts bent on getting it right rather than blindly following crap data, wrongs could quickly be made right rather than waiting years..



-------------
https://www.ease-distribution.com/moses" rel="nofollow - Foil fun


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 9:35pm
How would we know what the wrongs were? How would we know whether the differences were due to the sailors or whether the measurement rule was wrong? Guesswork?

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: Medway Maniac
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 9:42pm
And how would you deal with the wind strength factor I illustrated above of the L2 vs Wayfarer?  That requires a 10%+ correction.  For a foiling Moth it would be 50%+

-------------
http://www.wilsoniansc.org.uk" rel="nofollow - Wilsonian SC
http://www.3000class.org.uk" rel="nofollow - 3000 Class


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 12 Apr 15 at 11:43pm
Originally posted by piglet

Happy to lose to Transient any day, it's those L2K's that needle me!


I suspect I'd be very unlikely to beat you with a accurate PY.

And WB: I thought you wanted to get away from partisan decisions made by cliques of so called experts in smoke filled rooms. I personally prefer a data driven system.....but......what to do with dying fleet data. Is it really valid if a handicap on boat performance is the objective?


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 7:43am
Transient, there are several factors that could affect a number.  It could be that laser 2 sailors are getting slower compared to everyone else due to either boat age diminishing the performance, or thee sailor age and their diminishing performance. It could also be boats have been moved on and the laser 2 is now in the hands of a majority of more novice sailors.  It's probably a combination of all of those but deciding how much each one affects the number is difficult.  

Are there less returns for the laser 2 now than in than in the past? When does the drop of in returns start? If there is a drop in returns numbers does this correlate to a drop in class event turnout?  Something perhaps pyg could look into and maybe already do is to see if and when returns numbers drop if there a certain ratio between that and the Nationals turnout for all classes when a py number moves?  If so they could cap it retaining the class best average handicap and not its just current performance. That leads on to other issues too though.


-------------
https://skiff-media.teemill.com/" rel="nofollow - T-SHIRTS
https://www.photo4me.com/profile/23908/" rel="nofollow - PRINTS


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 8:19am
Add to that the classes where the handicap has moved, but the class is still going strong (Topper, Miracle, Comet come to mind) and you get a very complex situation indeed. How would you tie the L2 handicap movement to those classes?

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: Woodburner
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 8:43am
Originally posted by Rupert

How would we know what the wrongs were? How would we know whether the differences were due to the sailors or whether the measurement rule was wrong? Guesswork?

We have the internet, we know pretty damn quick these days, the 'bush telegraph' works, and if we ran it ourselves rather than waiting for an anonymous body driven by an organisation of jobsworths who are purely doing it as a career choice rather than love of the sport, I'm sure corrections could be made a lot quicker than the way things happen now, coupled to an online protest system if folk aren't happy, like this case, and the Miracle and the Icon and the Wayfarer and the Alto and the Streaker and the Solo and the OK to name just a few, they could appeal.


-------------
https://www.ease-distribution.com/moses" rel="nofollow - Foil fun


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 8:52am
Originally posted by Oli

Transient, there are several factors that could affect a number.  It could be that laser 2 sailors are getting slower compared to everyone else due to either boat age diminishing the performance, or thee sailor age and their diminishing performance. It could also be boats have been moved on and the laser 2 is now in the hands of a majority of more novice sailors.  It's probably a combination of all of those but deciding how much each one affects the number is difficult.  


Yes indeed, I heard a similar argument recently....but why is that relevant? I'm not interested in a "Boat age" based handicap, neither am I interested in a "boat crew demography" or a "boat maintenance"/ "availability of spares" based handicap. All I'm interested in is a potential "boat performance" handicap.

Originally posted by Oli

Are there less returns for the laser 2 now than in than in the past? When does the drop of in returns start? If there is a drop in returns numbers does this correlate to a drop in class event turnout?  Something perhaps pyg could look into and maybe already do is to see if and when returns numbers drop if there a certain ratio between that and the Nationals turnout for all classes when a py number moves?  If so they could cap it retaining the class best average handicap and not its just current performance. That leads on to other issues too though.


Nailing the PY to a figure achieved at the boats peak sounds like a promising start. Surely, The PY should be based on the period of "best quality data" not on a subsequent period of "falling quality data".  If there have been no changes to the boat in 30 years then why alter the number?.

(sorry to go on about this)

If Physicists operated in this way where would science be? If they study the quality of a phenomena would they alter their view and say "but there are fewer scientists studying it now and they are poorer in quality so we've had to change the description in the text books"......not sensible.   

EDIT: Mr WB, I still support a data driven system.



Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 9:36am
As for spotting which boats fall into this category, as Mr WB says, it's not difficult.

If the returns on an established boat (in the case of the L2, international status or possibly choose some other criteria) start suggesting a slower PY: Flag it for further scrutiny.
Ask a question.

Has the class changed it's rules?

If NO then leave.

If the PYG have insufficient funds to apply this kind of scrutiny then the RYA need to spend a bit more on the system. Handicap racing is becoming increasingly important to the sport.


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 10:26am
But how do you know the data was right to start with? If a class has been sailed to above average standard in the past copared to other classes, then by leaving it at the level it was then, you are doing a huge disservice to those currently sailing the boat, racing against classes that have never had those heady heights of participation.

As for using the "everyone knows" technique of number adjustment, as WB suggests... well, I think you've proved over the years that "everybody" doesn't know. They have opinions, based on very narrow experience.

I never did get an answer to the question of whether Solos and Streakers raced against each other anywhere, with equally skilled sailors, and how the results turned out? And it sounds like the Solutions have been beating the Miracles at Redoubt, if that is the right club, so maybe 1210 not too much of a bandit number after all?


-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 10:47am
Originally posted by Rupert

But how do you know the data was right to start with? If a class has been sailed to above average standard in the past copared to other classes, then by leaving it at the level it was then, you are doing a huge disservice to those currently sailing the boat, racing against classes that have never had those heady heights of participation.


Ultimately no one can know if the data is right in the first place. All that can be done is to ask "when did we get the best data for any given boat"  

.........as you said in a previous post:

Originally posted by Rupert

I suppose the basic trouble is that there is far more scope for sailing a boat slower than its basic potential than there is being a sailing god and working that extra little bit of almost unattainable potential from a design, so once the bubble bursts on a class as a racing fleet, the drop off is pretty rapid. 


....so the period of decline is going to reveal poorer quality data as to the true potential boat speed.

Originally posted by Rupert

As for using the "everyone knows" technique of number adjustment, as WB suggests... well, I think you've proved over the years that "everybody" doesn't know. They have opinions, based on very narrow experience.


Please don't take offence folks but the sailing community, of which I am one, are notoriously partisan when it comes to judging other boats. Expecting an unbiased, objective opinion from a bunch of experts is a bit like expecting s**t from a rocking horse.....so I would agree with you on that score.


Posted By: Woodburner
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 11:39am
The Solution now has I would guess a slightly favorable handicap, or it could also be that the two helms using them would have been sailing Miracles in the past so they can't both be on the water together. I haven't been down there for a bit, but the Solo Streaker question is pretty obvious, One has an 8.5 mtr sail the other has a 6.5 mtr sail and given size wise there aint much in it, it's fair to say even an imbecile can spot which one is likely going to go faster, either way they are not nor ever were the same.

-------------
https://www.ease-distribution.com/moses" rel="nofollow - Foil fun


Posted By: Noah
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 12:18pm
But it's not ONLY about sail area, is it! Waterline length, hull form, beam (aka righting moment), 'sailing' weight, prevailing conditions... the list goes on.


-------------
Nick
D-Zero 316



Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 12:35pm
Transient, I'm in complete agreement that there is a problem. I'm just not convinced that historical data is the answer, at least at RYA level, where there are too many variables in the returns coming in to be able to say exactly what is causing a change.

-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 12:42pm
PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....


-------------
Paul
----------------------
D-Zero GBR 74


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 12:50pm
Yep. I've made my point so I'll let it drop. I'm sick of discussing the subject in all honesty.

Thanks for the input folks.


Posted By: Oli
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 1:47pm
Originally posted by transient

Originally posted by Oli

Transient, there are several factors that could affect a number.  It could be that laser 2 sailors are getting slower compared to everyone else due to either boat age diminishing the performance, or thee sailor age and their diminishing performance. It could also be boats have been moved on and the laser 2 is now in the hands of a majority of more novice sailors.  It's probably a combination of all of those but deciding how much each one affects the number is difficult.  


Yes indeed, I heard a similar argument recently....but why is that relevant? I'm not interested in a "Boat age" based handicap, neither am I interested in a "boat crew demography" or a "boat maintenance"/ "availability of spares" based handicap. All I'm interested in is a potential "boat performance" handicap.

Originally posted by Oli

Are there less returns for the laser 2 now than in than in the past? When does the drop of in returns start? If there is a drop in returns numbers does this correlate to a drop in class event turnout?  Something perhaps pyg could look into and maybe already do is to see if and when returns numbers drop if there a certain ratio between that and the Nationals turnout for all classes when a py number moves?  If so they could cap it retaining the class best average handicap and not its just current performance. That leads on to other issues too though.


Nailing the PY to a figure achieved at the boats peak sounds like a promising start. Surely, The PY should be based on the period of "best quality data" not on a subsequent period of "falling quality data".  If there have been no changes to the boat in 30 years then why alter the number?.

(sorry to go on about this)

If Physicists operated in this way where would science be? If they study the quality of a phenomena would they alter their view and say "but there are fewer scientists studying it now and they are poorer in quality so we've had to change the description in the text books"......not sensible.   

EDIT: Mr WB, I still support a data driven system.


Transient its relevant because the system we have is one that takes all those things into account, crew skill factor boat age and all the rest of the small factors that effect performance, it is after all a  performance based system so how can it not be relevant?  you seem to be asking for one thing and not accepting it requires the other, they go hand in hand.


-------------
https://skiff-media.teemill.com/" rel="nofollow - T-SHIRTS
https://www.photo4me.com/profile/23908/" rel="nofollow - PRINTS


Posted By: sargesail
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 7:53pm
Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!


Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 9:10pm
Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!


But, as Transient has found, winning because the handicap is a bit too kind is a little hollow. Just a fraction kind, and you can just about convince yourself that you and the boat are in perfect harmony, hence the better than normal results. I can, anyway!


-------------
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686


Posted By: sargesail
Date Posted: 13 Apr 15 at 11:22pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!


But, as Transient has found, winning because the handicap is a bit too kind is a little hollow. Just a fraction kind, and you can just about convince yourself that you and the boat are in perfect harmony, hence the better than normal results. I can, anyway!

But what about the other Topaz sailors?  Therein lies the rub of ignoring CSF in the statistical approach - or the sort of gerrymandering described here!


Posted By: MerlinMags
Date Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 8:18am
We're never going to find an accurate comparison system when all the sailors creating the data are of differing abilities, on different bits of water.

We simply have to get Nick Craig to sail every class of boat, on the sea/lake/river, in F1/2/3/4/5/6 wind. Then we'll have an accurate datum to compare to.

Actually, it doesn't have to be a good sailor like Nick. You could use a crap sailor like me. So long as my meagre abilities stay the same, I could be employed to sail all these boats in all these venues, and the results would be equally useful.

If you can just arrange for my salary to be paid for 300 days of sailing, I'd happily solve the problem for you all.


Posted By: jeffers
Date Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:15am
Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by jeffers

PY is, always has been and always will be an average.

If the class is sailed by those of below average ability (for example some rotomoulded classes) then a more able sailor jumps in to one then the PY will look ridiculous. We had 2 guys who sailed Topaz's a few years ago. Now bear in mind in their younger days they were top end 470 sailors I think you can guess what happened.......

Hence why local adjustment is recommended.....

Really - it was considered necessary to adjust the handicap because the CSF of two sailors who were dropping into a class matching their reduced athletic ability.  Should have let them have the chocolates!

That is a matter for you and other people at your club to bring up with your committee if you feel it to be grossly unfair.


-------------
Paul
----------------------
D-Zero GBR 74


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:25am


Originally posted by Oli

 Transient its relevant because the system we have is one that takes all those things into account, crew skill factor boat age and all the rest of the small factors that effect performance, it is after all a  performance based system so how can it not be relevant?  you seem to be asking for one thing and not accepting it requires the other, they go hand in hand.


Yes, you are right Oli. I didn't phrase my response very well. 

Obviously these things will always be relevant in the general scheme of the PY but in the case of the L2 the returned data over the last few years has clearly gone sour. The data that caused the 60 point shift is of poorer quality than data returned at the boat's peak........The sour data and the 60 30 points should be declared irrelevant IMO and be chucked in the bin. 

.......right, I'm definitely done on this subject now LOL

Edit for clarity: When I say poorer quality I mean poorer in relation to it's purpose i.e. establishing the true potential speed of the boat.

Edited to correct typo


Posted By: turnturtle
Date Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:25am
Originally posted by MerlinMags

We're never going to find an accurate comparison system when all the sailors creating the data are of differing abilities, on different bits of water.

We simply have to get Nick Craig to sail every class of boat, on the sea/lake/river, in F1/2/3/4/5/6 wind. Then we'll have an accurate datum to compare to.

Actually, it doesn't have to be a good sailor like Nick. You could use a crap sailor like me. So long as my meagre abilities stay the same, I could be employed to sail all these boats in all these venues, and the results would be equally useful.

If you can just arrange for my salary to be paid for 300 days of sailing, I'd happily solve the problem for you all.

I think the first thing we need to do is to send you off on a two year sabbatical learning dinghy skills from ever sector of the boat park.  After all, you're probably handier (or in my case not quite as crap) in one type of boat over another.  I know my own trapeze skills are woeful and my knowledge of what to do with fast pins precludes me from any stayed rig boats.  I'd hate to think what would happen if I applied my shabby boat handling skills to a foiling moth, or worse, my rig awareness to something like a Merlin or Hornet where you don't just shove it in '4th hole down'.  

Once you've completed your two year stint of sailing all manner of dinghies, ideally in stable wind locations with consistent mid-twenties temperatures,  then we can begin the process of assessing each boat using your homogeneous skill levels at the ponds and estuaries of GB.  

Allowing for decrepitude before you are put out to pasture, I reckon this is at least a 60 month contract with options to renew... best you now go set up some crowd funding page Mags.  

 I'll add a fiver.


Posted By: transient
Date Posted: 14 Apr 15 at 9:45am
Originally posted by MerlinMags

We're never going to find an accurate comparison system when all the sailors creating the data are of differing abilities, 

I can live with that but I also think that some ways of doing things will be better than others.

returns that suggest a slower handicap should definitely be flagged for further thought.


....OK, I'm off to apollo duck now, I want to see if L2 second hand prices  are on their way up yetWink



Print Page | Close Window

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz - http://www.webwizguide.com