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Is there a better way of setting an initial PY?

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Bellingforth View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Bellingforth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Is there a better way of setting an initial PY?
    Posted: 28 Jul 14 at 11:11pm
Now this is going to be a difficult ask - for the purposes of this thread, can we assume the RYA's PY system works for established classes?  Big smile

About a year ago I had a chat with a chap at the RYA about how the Icon could get an initial PY.  The answer was that it would only be via returns from RYA clubs, and this data would be fed into the RYA's system.  If they then deemed they had enough data then they would issue an experimental number.

The problem with this, is that the PY-o-matic takes no note of skill factor and the result is therefore assumed to represent the average sailor. Unless specifically aimed at being a 'beginner' boat, new classes are more likely to attract 'better' sailors.  This results in the EN being set low.  In due course, with enough boats being raced, the number would then rise, but until then it potentially could put off people taking up the class.  Especially as their only option will be handicap racing.  Icon currently has this problem - it now welcomes Aero & D-Zero to the club.

Hence the thread title.

A very initial starting point could be derived mathematically along the lines of Peaky's suggestion - http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=11438&KW=fuller+number&title=the-fuller-number
However, as that thread proved, people will always want some 'hard facts' to back up the theory.

The Top Gear Power Laps times produces a 'rough & ready' means of ranking sports cars.  It's always the same circuit and supposedly the same driver, so the main variable is the track condition.  Would it be possible to do something similar with boats?

Or is there a better way..........??

Mike B.
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jul 14 at 11:19pm
Agree there should be a better way. Trouble is, the wind changes, so a top gear lap would produce different results even with the same sailor. Racing the boat against similar boats, and swapping helms around, would give a better idea, I guess.
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Bootscooter View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Bootscooter Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jul 14 at 11:23pm
There is a way, as many will have already identified, of running a "trials" series, with a panel of known sailors with quantified skills/performance levels racing a new design against a set of PY-stable boats.
In theory this is great, but you'd still need a lot of races, held on inland ponds, inland large lakes, inland big reservoirs, coastal estuaries, coastal chop, coastal rollers, in every combination of wind speeds.
Time and costs are the problem.
The simple solution is to persuade people to buy the boat that they enjoy sailing, not necessarily the one that they'll think will have them winning races, and accept that the numbers will be right in about 2 years.
Sure, it's nice to win, but regardless of position gained I've come off the water with a grin on my face every time I sail the D-One.... therefore I have won

Edited by Bootscooter - 28 Jul 14 at 11:24pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iiitick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 8:12am
How true Bootscooter, it is the enjoyment that counts. Personally I cant think of an effective better way. However we have a lady at our club who went out and bought an RS Quba. This thing sails off 1220 which is ludicrous. Luckily she sails rarely and badly but in one race last week she beat me and a girl lightning sailor (who is much better than me) on PY. The Quba owner is probably going to give up sailing and sell her boat, fine, but to who! Any good sailor would thrash us all regularly on that PY.

I could say, well it will all sort it's self out in a couple of years but will it? Icon returns will come in thick and fast but how many Quba returns will make their way back from Greece or Sham el Shiek?

By the way, I met your father and his wife recently. We had a jolly weekend.

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kneewrecker View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote kneewrecker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 9:14am
I think the EN works fine... well done to the RYA for having the gumption to put something out there on such little data.  Poor sods, damned if the do anything, damned if they don't..... 

The question I would like to ask is when setting the EN, should the RYA be:

1) generous to the new design to help stimulate industry and innovation

2) stingy to help protect established classes

3) impartial and clinical in its assessments
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Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 9:24am
It is the 'initial phase' that is the core of the 'new class' problem.  Locally we were encouraged by the then Commodore of the local club to get 'other' crews into the Icons in order to get a better 'spread' of results. 

Quite a few capable but occasional crews did race the boats in the year that followed - so far so good you might think.  The next thing we heard informally was that these additonal results cound not really be regarded as truly 'representative' because these crews would 'obviously' need an extended period of time 'to get up to speed' .... or were 'the wrong' figures now the issue ? 

Sailjuice results imo are a better starting point - most classes are represented by decent top quartile crews in well sorted boats - especially if you give additonal weight to the top half of the results.  For new classes this must point to a better method of establishing a first practical EN if that is what you want to call it - better that is than crude club results that really needto be in sample sizes of  many thousands of individual results to get any real smoothing into play. 

I'm therfore proposing using Sailjuice results to provide an initial EN ... and not even initial EN numbers being factored by Sailjuice results to produce a GL number as now.  Both approaches can then compliment each other rather than appearing to be rival approaches.  No new class should object to being excluded from the chocolates in the first year if that is what it takes anyway while this process runs its course.   Lets have a more certain process please - and stop pretending that a number derived from say <30 races for one class at only a couple of clubs is in some way as 'good' as one involving many thousands of results from another class spread all over the country... 

Nobody should ever buy a new boat becauseof the possibility of a 'bandit' handicap ... equally nobody should be put off buying into a new class because the 'given' handicap (or the one you may surely end up with initially !) frightens off the 'middle' range of club sailors from looking any further.  Most do not necessarily expect to win, but they would like a sporting chance of finishing some way up from the back !

Not-expecting-change-any-time-soon in the real world however.

Mike L.  
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 9:42am
Can we cut this 'sail it because we love it crap' not many of us here do that if we're honest, we like to race, the boat is merely a tool to that end.

Ideally some of us would love the perfect world of everybody racing the same craft, however those of us challenged with 'not normal' physical characteristics can't do that, so we want to buy and race something that suits those characteristics.

Now as has been demonstrated here already, it is not beyond the wit of man to come up with a formula that at the very least takes the bungling and guesswork out of the equation for starters.

What local gerrymandering then goes on after can still continue, but at the very least, there needs to be something based in fact, not inland fiction.

Or 'they' can of course go on as per, looking either idiotic, corrupt, small minded, protectionist, insert your own opinion, either way, not much reward for folk who probably are well meaning hardworking and honest.

It's the system that's wrong, change it - simples.

Edit, I've no idea why Mike is so enamoured with the Sailjuice series, to my mind they are part of the problem, ok so they've been kind to the Blaze, not quite sure why, but either way if anything they are tainted even more by 'commercial' interest so should be ignored because of the inland water weighting. To get a true average, equal results need taking from an even number of water samples and the random nature of the data removed if the feeling is that a system based on data is the only way.

Edited by iGRF - 29 Jul 14 at 9:52am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iiitick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 10:09am
Why do you think that some set formula will do the trick? I wonder what figures the little Byte would come up with? Short, narrow and not much sail area, Lightning, short, wider, more sail. Let no one tell me that a Lightning is faster in anything above a light wind than a Byte. We have arguably...no not arguably....the two best Byte sailors in the country at our club and they regularly beat Supernova's on the water in a blow. No mathematical formula can compensate for this but the present PY system reflects it. Byte C2 1140, Lightning 368 1160......seems about right to me.

I have advised Mr Fuller to try a Byte as I believe he is of reduced stature. It could be the machine for him. Personally I am too old, slow and stupid for one. Mr Fuller on the other hand seems to be none of these things........
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 10:51am
One of those Byte C 2s was doing quite well over at Downs recently is that anyone you know?

As to this system, we're talking about new unknowns, rather than boats with plenty of data.

Having said that, I fail to understand why even with years of data, the boats are still moving around, simply because there is clearly an imbalance in data source.

One day I'll get a go in one tick but I'm not keen on boats that are shorter than the boards I used to sail, so 380-390 is the minimum length I like to suit my tacking angles. Inbuilt senses like these are difficult to shift once you're over a certain age.
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2547 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 2547 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 14 at 11:10am
Originally posted by Bellingforth

... new classes are more likely to attract 'better' sailors.  This results in the EN being set low.

That is a gross assumption ... why do you think this to be the case ...?

I think the type  / style of the boat may have an impact.

E.G. a D-One may attract better than average and perhaps the Aero less so ...

I'd say better sailors typically seek out tough competition in existing classes.


Edited by 2547 - 29 Jul 14 at 11:12am
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