Second hand prices over the decades

Sure, I understand the point and the mechanics that you see applying. I think the way you are looking at it is perfectly logical and reasonable. In one class I sail, where old boats are extremely competitive, others have made the same case that you have made.

However, on the other hand there are other ways of looking at the same issue that are also perfectly logical and reasonable!  The info in the Y&Y article could perhaps be interpreted to back up each of the opposing views.  I just sketched a graph of the number of boats that did nationals on top of the graph showing the prices of second-hand dinghy sails and they seem to show no correlation to each other! 

My 2c worth is that like many things in dinghy sailing, there are so many factors involved that predictions become incredibly hard to make, and cause and effect become incredibly hard to discern a lot of the time. This discussion lead me to recall a long chat I had with Rod Johnstone of J Boats, where we talked about the varying success of his various classes, from the failure of the J/30 and J/36 to the success of the 35 and 105. Rod seemed to have a very pragmatic view of classes in some ways - they could become a success because of things like the views of north-eastern USA establishment sailors to a particular tax threshold and then suddenly take off, and equally the best laid plans could collapse. J Boats just seem to owe a lot of their success to the fact that they learn from the way the market reacts and then react to it, whereas many other builders seem to stick to their beliefs and just blame the market for getting it wrong. The way that they re-did the J/30 and J/36 moulds into the J/29 and J/35 seem to be classic examples of this tactic of listening to the market, admitting a mistake and them reacting quickly. 

Maybe this is one of those many areas where different approaches work at different times and places. I suppose in the end I just wish we had there were more people doing research in the sport instead of relying on hype as happens all too often, judging from remarks made by various people such as ISAF heads.

From a personal point of view, whilst I could afford to bridge new boat purchases from savings etc, I would find that concept very uncomfortable.  I would always sell first, buy later.  Just the way I do things... weird really, there's been a couple of times when I wish I could have reversed the clock!

I'm not convinced this creates much of a 'chain' though - unlike housing you can be without a boat for a few weeks and no harm will come to you.  Crewing for a mate or go for a bike ride instead is quite common.  And for those who can stomach the stigma, there always the club Lasers or some generic rotomoulded tub....  Again I've heard the term, 'between boats currently' before; it's where I'm at at the mo- a conscious decision around how much winter dinghy sailing I'd realistically want to do vs depreciation, insurance and boat park costs.  

I've never been desperate enough to buy one specific boat to worry about it being sold to someone else- another one from the same class will always come along - I guess if I were into more individual classes then this might be more of a concern.  I'm fairly fatalistic about boats though- one of things I miss with windsurfing is that boards lack the mystique and superstition of a boat.  Anyone who thinks a boat is just a lump of plastic/wood lacks imagination in my opinion.  They all have a personality, some even have a good sense of humour but there's definitely a relationship between a man (or woman) and her boat.... much to the concerns of the non-sailing, long suffering other halves out there.