Laser 28 - Excellent example of this great design Hamble le rice |
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Twenty years from now |
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winging it ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 22 Mar 07 Online Status: Offline Posts: 3958 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Posted: 25 Jan 15 at 7:28pm |
what will be be sailing? Or in my case, what will I be watching sail? Will some classes have perished, or will the Solo still reign supreme? Will there be any double handers left?
I reckon we will have moved hard towards lightweight single handers like the *eroes but not fully into everyone foiling. I hope that some double handers survive,nut I think they will look a lot like the icon and the X11 - lightweight, comfortBle, stable with symmetric spininies. What also would you like to see, has it even been designed yet?
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the same, but different...
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JimC ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 17 May 04 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 6662 |
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Interesting topic. What a shame no-one posted it on rec boats racing back in the day, it would have been amusing to look it up in Google groups and see how comprehensively wrong I was!
Twenty years isn't that big a time frame. Twenty years ago I already had an epoxy foam sandwich boat with laminate sails and was thinking about carbon spars. We probably ought to be seeing what will become mainstream in the development classes now. Personally I doubt there will be many really healthy mainstream pole kite classes left. Legacy classes sailed for historical interest I should think. I should have thought that mainstream boats will be either sprit kite or no kite plus downwind capable jib - dangly pole or something better. I don't think foilers will be much more widespread, although Moths may prove more popular. At the moment the materials we have and the laws of physics seem to suggest that if you are going to have a foiling boat it may as well be a Moth. This is probably the most risky statement in this one. It will be interesting to see if spinnakers for singlehanders survive long term, or whether they prove to be a temporary fad. Anyone remember weight equalisation? If there's a big change in materials technology it will render this prediction obsolete. I don't know that anyone has really designed a really good adults single string One design yet, and that used to be such an important part of the scene. Bearing in mind the "what we see in the development classes" principle I suggest it might well have a rudder foil. It might be interesting to look back twenty years and see what has changed and see how that informs our predictions. Certainly twenty years ago I'd never have predicted the downturn in high performance dinghy sailing. Edited by JimC - 25 Jan 15 at 8:24pm |
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Twenty yea ago the ISO was just taking the sailing scene by storm. Look at that now!
I think the two man scene will continue to dwindle and wooden boats will become increasingly niche. There will be far fewer adult classes raced in 50+ numbers, but the Merlin will still be going strong. The Zero will be made rotomoulded plastic. Sails will become colourful again. |
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Rupert ![]() Really should get out more ![]() Joined: 11 Aug 04 Location: Whitefriars sc Online Status: Offline Posts: 8956 |
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I'll still have a Firefly, I hope. I was working for a Topper dealer 20 years ago when the ISO came out,and I saw the rise, and then how the Fireball regrouped, tweaked the boat and won people back. I think/ they will still be around, as will the Laser. 20 years isn't really that long in dinghy terms. The HP boats will be long gone,as speed is the aim, and there will be faster boats for people to sail. The rest, down to what people like sailing. Some will vanish, new classes will pop up, but very slow change.
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Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
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Woodbotherer ![]() Posting king ![]() ![]() Joined: 11 Dec 14 Online Status: Offline Posts: 192 |
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There'll still be GP14's, Furballs, bloody Merlins and all that old crap, not a lot of that will have changed, I like to think there might be one or two more foilers, but doubt it, unlikely there will be any EPS's left and the Blaze Inferno will no doubt be banditing an 1100 handicap with a 12 mtr rig.
But what will I care? At 87 if I can still get the bath chair attached to a couple of floats I'll be happy..
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Vronny ![]() Posting king ![]() Joined: 31 Mar 08 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 121 |
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When I was a child just starting out in sailing (a lot longer than 20 years ago!) I was certain that the traditional, local keelboat classes would become obsolete very soon. But they are still the main classes sailed in my area, the Norfolk Broads. Once production of GRP boats was allowed in these classes, especially the Broads One Designs, the Yare & Bure ODs and to a lesser extent the Waveneys, they have really taken off.
They offer what most dinghy classes can't - competition without being overly technical, able to take whole families out when not racing, racing in tough conditions because they can be reefed and have storm jibs, you don't need wetsuits, you don't get wet launching because the boats are kept afloat or are craned in. The competition is seriously hot in these classes and so they attract a lot of very good helmsmen. But you don't need really expert crews. In fact a lot of the boats are crewed by family members who don't aspire to helming, they just love sailing in boats that are a lot more comfortable than your average dinghy. And the social side of the sailing is pleasant and relaxed too. At my club we are considering our development plan again. We would like to ensure that good quality dinghy sailing is sustainable. But the key thing is that our keelboat sailing is what keeps families fully engaged in the club. Novices can sail keelboats without getting wet and miserable. Friends can be invited to share the fun. So in 20 years time I would hope to see strong keelboat fleets so that my club continues to thrive and that way all the crazy dinghy sailors will always have a club too.
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sawman ![]() Far too distracted from work ![]() Joined: 04 May 11 Online Status: Offline Posts: 205 |
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Wouldn't mind retiring back to norfolk when the time comes, I'll look forward to hurtling up the river in a rebel, or more sedately in a white boat in 20 years. might keep the miracle for grandkids though! |
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Do Different ![]() Really should get out more ![]() Joined: 26 Jan 12 Location: North Online Status: Offline Posts: 1312 |
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Unless there is major leap in manufacturing technology which drastically reduces the cost of new boats I only see evolution and not revolution.
I agree Icon style boats may well become more popular. I also agree with Woodbotherer that some of our current older classes will still be going strong in some form. Not for reasons of apathy or an establishment conspiracy but because they can offer a "nice" all round sailing experience over a wide range of conditions and venues. I am not convinced over the extinction of the symmetric kite. Sprits are so one trick pony and although they make perfect sense on faster boats, on slower boats they can result in pointless reaching and frustration. Lighter boats can be good but as in all aspects of design going to the ultimate does not always produce the best all round package.
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Simon Lovesey ![]() Far too distracted from work ![]() ![]() Joined: 30 Nov 04 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 349 |
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The data we are seeing in the !m+ SailRacer results database, shows a decline in the numbers of high performance boats and double handers, with a shift to single handers and the strong established classes holding up.
IMHO I think this is a reflection of more pressure on people's leisure time. I hope the sport can find solutions to reverting the decline of the double handers, this is one of the best ways of getting newcomers started as long term participants.
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Woodbotherer ![]() Posting king ![]() ![]() Joined: 11 Dec 14 Online Status: Offline Posts: 192 |
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Well the answers is pretty simple stupid isn't it?
Stop penalising new double handers with stupid handicaps nobody can sail them to.
Edited by Woodbotherer - 26 Jan 15 at 9:14am |
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