PY Numbers (again)

I havent set out to prove anything. I have taken on the mantle of sorting out the results for the handicap fleet at Draycote and was merely posting the return for the Phantom here as we have actual data from a few races over various different conditions involving various different classes over different courses and thought the results might be interesting to some on here as i'd view real world data as being more accurate than bar speak..... I have a return for lots of different classes and could post them here (as I have before if people are interested), and only singled out the phantom as I thought it was getting a bit of an unfair wrap, and thats coming from a 300 sailor!

I'm not trying to change the facts. I was pointing out that although the majority of people have said that the phantom is a bandit in light winds I would have expected our 1038 to be lower if they were total bandits as the phantoms only seem to sail at Draycote in light winds. I do believe the results, but many others at our club are unwilling to. I'd love to adjust the numbers we use in line with our returns but i think we are a little way off doing that just yet....

Viewed as a whole, the suggested handicaps for Draycote show that a classes PY will usually be higher than the published RYA figures, and it has been suggested that that could be because the system uses the 300 as a benchmark to rate everything else against and that the 300 fleet at Draycote is generally of a high standard. I only offered that as possible proof that perhaps the phantom current PY isnt as far wide of the mark as some are suggesting.

Edited by chrisg

Hmm, yes, well spotted Peaky. Ive just worked out the average shift is +16. So the phantom would be then 1019. More than i had anticipated I have to say, i'll hold my hands up to that one. There are a fair few classes which have big differences due to a low number of results, so not sure that it is a totally fair assumption that everything is shifting up by that much I guess. Perhaps more realistically I'd say the shift should be about +9, putting the 1030 others have suggested as being about right then.

There may be some statistical wizards on here so for all of you, here are all the suggested returns for Draycote as given by the RYA PY website so you can judge for yourselves whats going on:

DWSC SUGGESTED HANDICAPS FROM RYA WEBSITE
CLASS	RACES	ACTUAL PY	PROPOSED PY	DIFFERENCE
12FT SKIFF	1	879	895	16
18FT SKIFF	1	685	764	79
2.4	2	1260	1286	26
29ER	7	924	920	-4
420	4	1087	1079	-8
49ER	25	747	771	24
CADET	4	1432	1316	-116
COMET MINO	4	1193	1262	69
COMET	1	1173	1163	-10
CONTENDER	25	993	1037	44
DART 15 (1 SAIL)	32	916	934	18
DART 15 (2 SAILS)	37	883	905	22
DART 18	15	798	867	69
ENTERPRISE	1	1116	1178	62
FIREBALL	243	982	985	3
FLYING FIFTEEN	27	1025	1062	37
INTERNATIONAL 14	2	850	872	22
INT CANOE (O/D)	36	905	924	19
INT MOTH (FOILING)	10	798	820	22
LARK	7	1073	1098	25
LASER II	2	1035	1034	-1
LASER 2000	31	1089	1096	7
LASER 3000 (S/H)	1	1015	1017	2
LASER 4.7	12	1175	1169	-6
LASER 4000	3	908	909	1
LASER 5000	3	846	923	77
LASER PICO (S/H STD)	26	1260	1297	37
LASER RADIAL	36	1101	1105	4
LASER VAGO SD (D/H)	3	1085	1193	108
LASER	45	1078	1086	8
MIRACLE	88	1178	1213	35
MUSTO SKIFF	17	875	896	21
OPTIMIST	11	1646	1614	-32
PHANTOM	51	1043	1038	-5
ROOSTER 8.1	1	1051	1079	28
RS 200	54	1059	1059	0
RS 300	286	1000	999	-1
RS 500	5	965	963	-2
RS 600	13	920	925	5
RS 700	8	857	869	12
RS 800	3	822	822	0
RS FEVA XL (D/H ASYMM)	27	1189	1192	3
RS TERA (SPORT)	21	1450	1465	15
SOLO	191	1155	1140	-15
SOLUTION	14	1070	1119	49
SUPERNOVA	40	1062	1084	22
TOPAZ UNO (S/H 1 SAIL)	1	1212	1204	-8
TOPPER	14	1290	1277	-13
LASER VORTEX	34	960	973	13
LASER VORTEX (ASYMM)	41	937	961	24

Thats a total of 1565 race finishes.

Is anyone else using the PY returns website for their handicap results? Can you post them here in a similar format if you are?

Edited by chrisg

I havent suggested anything, merely posted the results in the format we get them back in from the RYA website. Craig, Ive been trying to contact Bas too and havent heard anything from him for ages now. Perhaps he's busy trying to figure out some PY's! I'll keep trying and if I do I'll mention you are waiting login details. What club are you from?

Over the last thirty odd years there are 4 "gold standard" classes, Wayfarer, Solo, Mirror and Enterprise, whose handicap has never changed.

When proposing adjustments you could either normalise them against these, or alternatively against all the primary yardstick classes. It doesn't really make sense to correct across all the classes.

Originally posted by chrisg Ive just worked out the average shift is +16. So the phantom would be then 1019. More than i had anticipated I have to say, i'll hold my hands up to that one. There are a fair few classes which have big differences due to a low number of results, so not sure that it is a totally fair assumption that everything is shifting up by that much I guess. Perhaps more realistically I'd say the shift should be about +9,

If you actually weight your shift against no of results for each class its 7.75. However as I say, best to do it against the Gold standard or the primary classes, and ignore the rest. Ignoring your one Enterprise, your numbers should either be +15 or +3 respectively, putting the Phantom at 1041 and 1053...

FWIW is this year's handicaps at Island Barn, a 400 acre elevated reservoir in Surrey.

Class     Class Handicap
420     1087
29er     921
Canoe International     921
Enterprise     1116
Graduate     1140
Laser     1088
Laser 4.7     1175
Laser EPS     1013
Laser Radial     1111
Mature Moth     1060
Merlin Rocket     1018
National 12     1078
RS 200     1059
RS 300     1000
RS 400     946
RS 600     921
RS Feva S     1260
RS Feva XL     1189
RS Vareo     1038
Scorpion     1056
Solo     1155
Tasar     1023
Topaz Magno     1175
Topaz Uno     1212
Topper     1290


Edited by JimC

Originally posted by Merlinboy Interesting that there ar eno Phanotms racing at Island Barn

And there won't be any F18's at Thornbury if we have to sail off that suggested handicap....40 points to an A Class