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ttc546 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 6:34pm
I suspect that most, if not all, one design dinghies have a shelf life. By their very nature, what was once the thing to have, becomes outdated - either by technology or new designs. The Laser came about at a time of big dinghy sailing growth and filled a big gaping hole as well. Sailing has declined since then, so nothing is going to equal its success - now or in the future. However, it is seriously ageing, and boats like the Aero have filled the modern need. The Aero, and others, wont overtake the huge Laser footprint, but it will cater for today and tomorrows sailor. Though, like the Laser, its star will fizzle (many years from now I suggest). Nature will take its course - Lasers will lie rotting in boat parks and sailed by those with little money to get them on the water. Not now. But one day.
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Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 6:44pm
I don’t think the laser is ageing too badly quite honestly... it’s the ubiquitous choice for fleet racing around the globe and little nods towards modernisation - the Mk2 sail, XD kits and carbon top sections seem to set the pace perfectly for a general global clientele that would favour equal racing, longevity of product and ease of access over the latest fad or pimped up pretender.

I think Aero is carving its own niche btw - very successfully and admirably given my initial reticence towards it.
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Posts: 3420 		Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 6:53pm
Youths transferring from Toppers and other training boats to Laser don't know or care how old the design is, they just know it's a fast boat.
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 7:01pm
Originally posted by Dougaldog


[Do you want a mention in the book then Graeme?
D


No, but I'd give my eye teeth for one if they halved it's weight and shortened the leech.

And it was bleck.

With red foils.

And you could adjust the forestay on the fly.
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 7:29pm
Originally posted by turnturtle

I don’t think the laser is ageing too badly quite honestly... it’s the ubiquitous choice for fleet racing around the globe and little nods towards modernisation - the Mk2 sail, XD kits and carbon top sections seem to set the pace perfectly for a general global clientele that would favour equal racing, longevity of product and ease of access over the latest fad or pimped up pretender.

I think Aero is carving its own niche btw - very successfully and admirably given my initial reticence towards it.

A fair summary I think.
I think it will be quite a while before the before ceases to be an obvious choice for a huge number of people who want boat-on-boat racing on a very affordable budget.
I don't actually like the Laser, but for me nothing come close in terms of level racing or value for money. £2k for a Laser package that wins club races,  £5k for an early Aero.
Even if it lost its Olympic status after 2020, and went out of production a couple of years after that, I'd say there is a significant chance the Aero will get eclipsed in a similar time frame.
If you think some dinghy classes have had short production lives, take a look at keelboats and sportsboats.

If someone could create a volume market to match Laser's, they could get the price down a long way for a boat of similar weight/performance/quality to the Aero, but it's catch 22.
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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 2041 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 9:57pm
Originally posted by ttc546

I suspect that most, if not all, one design dinghies have a shelf life.

EDIT - Whoops - I should have read ttc's post more carefully and noted that they said "most" ODs have a shelf life. In my defence, many other people have said that ALL OD classes die but I should have been more careful. My apologies. 
 
 

It's very commonly held belief but utterly untrue, at least depending on your measure of "shelf life". Just about all of the original one designs in each form of sailing has survived for a century or more. Their story, and that of many later classes, indicates that one designs can thrive for many decades and have no shelf life as far as we can see.

The first one design dinghy was either the original Water Wag or the North Haven Dinghy. The Water Wag class swapped to a "new" hull around 1899 and they still race it today. The North Haven is still racing to the original design of the early 1880s. That's a shelf life, albeit localised, of 130 years.

The first International one design dinghy was the pre WW1 International 12. It is growing once again, with big fleets in the Netherlands and Italy and pockets as far afield as Turkey and Japan. The centenary event a few years ago attracted a huge fleet of 171 boats. What's its shelf life?

The early localised one design keelboats have died out, but the first real international OD keelboat, the Seabird Half Rater, still survives as a class after 120 years. The first officially International OD keelboat, the Star, is about a century old and still strong.

I don't know what you'd count as the first one design trailerable yacht, sportsboat or offshore one design, but some of the contenders are still around after long lives.

The first three "beach cat" one designs, the Pata Vela, Yvonne and Shearwater, are all still going with the former, oldest of them all, spreading further afield and getting good fleets. The first "surfcat", the Hobie 14, is reviving.

Even the first Windsurfer has just been re-launched, using a new hull that makes it a bit of a Ship of Theseus, but faithful to the original style, and it's now trying to re-establish its International class status at 50 years of age.

So the facts indicate that one design classes, particularly those that spread wide, don't actually have a 'shelf life'. Ironically and despite popular belief, the oldest ODs may outlive development classes.




Edited by Chris 249 - 29 Aug 18 at 7:20am
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Posts: 590 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 10:11pm
If I had a ubiquitous product from the early 70s, tooling and production facilities fully amortised and still outselling my nearest competitor by a factor of 10:1, with 3,000 boats shipped globally every year, in addition to double Olympic status, why on earth would I change anything?

Well of course you'd only change if you thought it essential... ..  But have you also considered that it might be exactly the sort of attitude by which  a thousand and one other products, corporations and business models condemn themselves every year.   Just takes time and that unvarying 'approach'.   The naive under estimation of what competitive pressure really is bubbling up out there and what constitutes 'threat' is the real problem.  In a loosely declining market those who are already the largest supplier (or believe they are ...) and that cannot or will not change often face the biggest fall.

Sure the L@ser will be around for years... but don't bet the farm on it to making anyones fortune for ever.  

 
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Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 10:25pm
But do bet that the family fortune can be held behind it and it’s multi-layer holding structures for some considerable time to come... with Christ knows what tax reduction incentives that might exist

Edited by turnturtle - 29 Aug 18 at 7:45am
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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 2041 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 18 at 11:05pm
Originally posted by Cirrus

If I had a ubiquitous product from the early 70s, tooling and production facilities fully amortised and still outselling my nearest competitor by a factor of 10:1, with 3,000 boats shipped globally every year, in addition to double Olympic status, why on earth would I change anything?

Well of course you'd only change if you thought it essential... ..  But have you also considered that it might be exactly the sort of attitude by which  a thousand and one other products, corporations and business models condemn themselves every year.   Just takes time and that unvarying 'approach'.   The naive under estimation of what competitive pressure really is bubbling up out there and what constitutes 'threat' is the real problem.  In a loosely declining market those who are already the largest supplier (or believe they are ...) and that cannot or will not change often face the biggest fall.

Sure the L@ser will be around for years... but don't bet the farm on it to making anyones fortune for ever.  

 

If you're looking at this from a marketing viewpoint, wouldn't it be worthwhile to consider the old adage that denigrating your competitors is bad marketing? To use the "L@ser" term, with its "Loser" connotation, doesn't come across very well to many of us. 
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Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 18 at 6:31am
Originally posted by Chris 249


Originally posted by ttc546

I suspect that most, if not all, one design dinghies have a shelf life.

It's very commonly held belief but utterly untrue,

Now steady on there Chris.

There are an exceptional few classes that seem to last indefinitely, but they are precious few. There are 127 classes in my 1958 PY list, and 97 in my current one.

There are 19 classes that appear in both lists. Of those 4 could be characterised as development classes, 3 as basically one design hulls with a lot of freedom esp in internal layout, 11 as one designs, and one as bordering on SMOD.

There are 3 OD classes on that list I would not be surprised to see fall off the list in the next few years, but the development classes look fairly safe, but it could be argued that's because its so very hard to found one. You could also argue that one of the development classes died out a number of years ago, and was replaced by its Australian equivalent.

Most classes do have a shelf life, sometimes short, sometimes very long, and really, would you expect it to be any different?

Edited by JimC - 29 Aug 18 at 6:44am
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