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PY Inland vs Sea

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    Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 9:42am
Originally posted by Rupert


I agree that high profile events should use the same handicaps, by the way - most of the people who go are not hotshots - but do the GL clubs use GL handicaps all year round anyway?

I believe Grafham do.
Paul
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Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 10:40am

So the real issue is what part of the overall sample you consider and it was always so.  The problem is the level of consistency across a class  (homogeneity if you  like).  If the ‘spread’ is particularly wide you will never handicap the potential of a class, at the front , to dominate much of handicap racing.   The alternative is tough on the back of that fleet if you do over-weight the impact of the front on results. 

In fact many classes, internally, understand this and have ‘classic’ or ‘vintage’ groupings and offer suggested alternative (lesser) handicap numbers.  The problem there is this is not necessarily reflected in the ‘national’ pot when the results are ‘gathered in’ for PN purposes ...A boat of class ‘n’ is tied to a recorded time in the overall figures and not to any locally varied number or positon in any races.  I’m sure to be corrected if wrong on this supposition  .....  Classic groups, I’m pretty sure, are not recognised and their timings are simply lumped in.  Bottom line is the national average numbers produced can be a bit of a gift to the front of that fleet in handicap events.  Vice versa must obviously true as well and much of the bottom half of the fleet do not stand much of a hope !    

In an ideal imagined world all classes would be made up of boats with identical potential to get to the front of that fleet – with no theoretical ‘spread’.  The only factor determining who ‘won’ in that fleet would be the crew.  When they then raced in handicap crew factors, coupled to condition factors on that day (because different classes do have their ‘favourite’ conditions of course) would be the only determining factors.

I don’t think there can be any ultimate system devoid of some human judgement at some level – to suggest anything less is simply idealistic and more than likely to lead to less than ideal numbers. 

So if we have to accept some human judgement what should that be based on ?  Eliminate the top 25% and the bottom 25% ?  Just the bottom  33% ? or any other ‘cut’ of the data mountain ?  etc etc .... Consider separate ‘classic’ numbers for older boats – especially for the development classes might be attractive and encourage a lot more people to bother at all.  

New classes and small classes pose special and additional problems –  and a solid and certain treatment should be developed.  Maybe a probationary period of a season or two where they are recorded but are separated from the overall results at the major events would help and additionally they should be assessed on the water first and a ‘human’ produced notional number applied for the probationary period. (I’m sure both manufacturers and young CA’s are sick of subject and would even pay for it – yes yes  and very seriously!)  

I suppose I’m arguing for a more proactive manner where the approach is to lead  rather than to follow when the wheels start needing a bit of oil.  The advent of GL numbers is a very strong symptom that with  ‘core’ system  modifications  might be both possible and desirable.  Don’t get too excited about their numbers either way, these can change over time as well, but their numbers and approach do seem to work well – if you count popularity as any measure.    

Mike L.




Edited by blaze720 - 28 Oct 14 at 10:50am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 11:57am
I am pretty sure the PYAG collect the PY used as part of the data upload to the PYS system.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 2:52pm
Originally posted by blaze720

So if we have to accept some human judgement what should that be based on ?  Eliminate the top 25% and the bottom 25% ? 

Isn't that what standard deviation is about?

There are some pretty standard mathmatical methods to deal with quirky results I think, does not need seat of the pants adjustments, which will inevitably be open to criticism.  Though this is not my field.

Do Golfing websites have forums that chew over the whys and where fores of Golfing Handicaps, which I think are the rule rather than the exception?

I havn't embraced the sport yet, I shall leave it until I am too old for my Solo (yes a contradiction in terms)!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 3:30pm
I havn't embraced the sport yet, I shall leave it until I am too old for my Solo (yes a contradiction in terms)!

Yes - Wink understand the viewpoint though but this thread really IS supposed to be about handicaps both Inland and Sea.  It would be a bit of a non-runner if we did not throw up a few ideas / observations on the subject before we all climbed (in and then ) out of  'coffin dodgers' !    

Golfing though ?  A sport largely run with personal handicaps being the norm of course.   Seems to keep most of the golfers very happy though .. and interested enough to keep competing which is really the point I guess.  I don't think they are giving strokes for the type of equipment used just yet mind you.

Number crunching ?  Stats is a big field but you still have to make many judgements on sampling and sample treatment.  Would be a doddle if this was not the case, and leave no 'wriggle room' for debate. 

Think on balance I prefer the golf approach !  Might be the best way at club level even where fleets were the norm. ..... leaving 'open' competition to class racing (class opens and championships) and to a few large Open handicap events each year....with handicap numbers derived from previous years results from those events...... No please this is meant as a serious idea.  Our most supported club series by a country mile (at Burghfield) are our personal handicap pursuits.  It brings in a hell of a lot more into racing that any other initiative and really is good imo.  Fleet racing at the other extreme, today, seems to have stalled in this area and too many of them are actually shrinking.   If you don't bring in as many as eventually give up the sport will at the very least shrink.    

Mike L.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 3:34pm
It depends on the probability density function, or probability distribution, to know which data is ''best" to look at. It is unlikely that sailboat performance fits a normal distribution as boats can be almost infinitely slow but not infinitely fast. I have never looked at a set of PY data, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is actually two peaks in probability curve.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote maxibuddah Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 4:13pm
The problem with personal handicaps Mike is that someone has to work them out. I certainly know that no one in our club has the energy to sit down and work them out. I think they tried one bit soon have up. It's a shame cos it she's work, but it needs constant monitoring and tinkering
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 4:54pm
Personal handicaps would seem ideal within a fleet - say of Lasers - where the equipment, like in golf, is the same. Add it on top of already uncertain (as they are very weather related, if for no other reason) boat handicaps, and you end up with a system where no one has a clue how well they did. I can see that for the odd pursuit race it could work, as it makes the good guys work a lot harder to get through, and gives the ones who normally don't see the front a shot at holding them off, but in general, not my cup of tea.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 5:41pm
My barber plays golf, and amongst the three year old Y&Y's are his golfing magazines, to suggest that golfers use the same equipment does not appear to be the case, the mags are full of adverts for clubs and balls that will improve your performance, presumably if you buy these you will be a Golf Handicap Bandit...
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Oct 14 at 7:45pm
Originally posted by davidyacht

My barber plays golf, and amongst the three year old Y&Y's are his golfing magazines, to suggest that golfers use the same equipment does not appear to be the case, the mags are full of adverts for clubs and balls that will improve your performance, presumably if you buy these you will be a Golf Handicap Bandit...


More like an old fashioned multi builder pretty slack ruled one design than radically different classes, though - they have to conform - no foiling clubs allowed...
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