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rb_stretch View Drop Down
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Posts: 742 		Post Options Post Options   Quote rb_stretch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: PY Lag Time
    Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 5:21pm
From other threads I've learnt that the equipment changes that have resulted in the modern Phantom started at least 12 years ago. The hulls went Epoxy in 2002, plastic sails and carbon masts a few years before that.

Now all the Phantom PY changes have happened in the last 4 years, so that is quite some lag time. Some of it can be explained by the time it takes equipment to filter down, but even so that is an awfully long time and I suspect other factors must also be at play.

More importantly it does make you wonder when any new class changes something or in the development classes when a new design comes out, whether there is an unfair advantage there?

By the way this is not a complaint about current PYs from a Phantom sailor cause I'm sure I'll still be able to win the odd club handicap race off 1002. As someone who is in the position of having to think about club handicaps and what to do locally, I'm curious about ways that clubs can react to changes more quickly than the PY system...cause that is what is expected of us.
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Posts: 2143 		Post Options Post Options   Quote getafix Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 5:28pm
For sure, dev classes can be in a position where new designs or technology affords a year or two of favourable PY conditions, certainly been the case in my experiences of MRs, N12s, i14s and Moths over the past 30-something years.  One class that has, for my money, handled this really well is the N12s, with split fleets and different PY's managed without so much as a single post on a thread here, and providing inclusive racing for owners whatever ever vintage of design/technology they happen to have.
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Posts: 1312 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Do Different Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 5:43pm
Surely that is the answer to any gripes about the PY system. Do as the N12s have done. 
It is not claimed to be a gospel chiseled out of stone.
If Clubs or Classes use the annual figures as the guides they are intended to be and take some ownership themselves a few of the injustices could be resolved. 
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Posts: 742 		Post Options Post Options   Quote rb_stretch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 6:01pm
I have yet to hear of a class that offers a quicker PY than the RYA number. Is that what the N12s do?

For example the Merlin's publish how much to add to the PY number for progressively older boats, but that ignores the fact that the RYA PY is an average, not the top end. We do have older Merlin's at our club but are struggling to figure what PY we should give them because of crew skill factors and the fact that the class numbers are suspect. Not picking on Merlin's as they are giving it a go unlike many other classes.
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Posts: 997 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Daniel Holman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 6:15pm
Interesting one, the lag. I have just been doing a piece of work, with some great data from Jim C, that would indicate that it has taken about a decade for the PY of the i14 to catch up with the performance gain arising from the introduction of the tfoil.
Maybe 5y of that was taken in fully realising the potential of the tech, leaving 5y of slowly diminishing banditry.
It's not a very prevalent class though, I suspect if it were as widely sailed as the laser, the PY would have caught up a little quicker.
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 6:23pm
PY Lag time still doesn't explain why two classes like the Streaker & the Solo which have had an historic differential for many many years and are now sailing off the same number, both have had similar epoxification of the hull, not so sure about the rig, but the fact they are now the same is more to do with gerrymandering than anything based in fact, just one more annoyance and easy means of competency questioning of the PYAG I'm afraid.
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Posts: 643 		Post Options Post Options   Quote patj Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 7:08pm
Surely the fact that PYs have changed most in the last four years is more to do with the introduction of the electronic returns system than any other factor??
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Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 7:16pm
Originally posted by patj

Surely the fact that PYs have changed most in the last four years is more to do with the introduction of the electronic returns system than any other factor??


That's the conventional wisdom, but its always worth validating conventional wisdom. As you are doubtless all bored with hearing, I've been doing historical research on PY numbers in the last few weeks, and it suddenly struck me that the three big tech changes that have come in in recent years - foam sandwich hulls, carbon masts and laminate sails - are the biggest widespread changes affecting many, if not most classes since the move from cotton sails to terylene back in 59-62.
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Posts: 1810 		Post Options Post Options   Quote craiggo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 8:17pm
Oh bloody hell, he's said gerrymandering again!!!!
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Posts: 893 		Post Options Post Options   Quote chrisg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 14 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by patj

Surely the fact that PYs have changed most in the last four years is more to do with the introduction of the electronic returns system than any other factor??

Pat, I'd agree. I'm not about to be drawn into a protracted argument about a specific classes number but I found the following in a post I made in Jan 2011 which I thought might be useful in this context:

Originally posted by chrisg back in Jan 11

Last year was my first year on the (PY) committee, but I understand it was a pretty revolutionary year as many numbers were changed by a significant amount, we even changed some primary numbers, which was almost unheard of previously. These larger changes came about primarily from the implementation of the new online web returns scheme, allowing clubs to return race by race. For the first time this also gave the PY group real race data, since the paper returns relied on one club member deciding what the PY number should be for any given class. The RYA had no say in the way this was calculated, so it could have been a completely wild guess, but most of the time "No Change" was returned. Hence the mainly static numbers. I believe the guidance for the group used to be that that numbers shouldn't change by more than 1 for Primary Numbers, 2 for Secondary Numbers and 3 for Recorded Numbers, although obviously this is now different. This should in turn lead to the system being more reactive, as seems to be the want of the dinghy world. We all want something that is realistic, but it might take a year or two catch up.

So basically, a couple of factors at play. The PYAG took the brakes off the numbers 4 or 5 years ago, and now we have real race data from clubs being imported in to the system so we aren't inundated with static returns stating that clubs think the numbers are working as they are. 

It is undeniable that a few classes have taken big hits over the last four or so years, and others have moved slightly after years of being constant, which I understand can seem odd but if you actually take the time to understand why, does makes sense. I think we are now reaching the point where the classes that everyone thought needed adjusting a few years ago and labelled bandits are reaching the numbers they should be, so changes will hopefully become smaller in the future.

If any class makes changes that affect performance in the future, I would expect the PN's to be a lot more reactive due to the changes the RYA/PYAG have made to the system in recent years. The lag time will be a lot shorter.

While some of the more outspoken keyboard warriors on here seem intent on belittling "spreadsheet sailing" in every post they make, or others still believe the people on the PYAG have axes to grind against certain classes I would once again say we don't and I personally believe that the PY system is in a stronger position because of the wholesale changes we have implemented over the last four years. 

All I can do is urge any clubs that aren't returning though the PYS website to start to do so. the more data we have the better the numbers become for everyone. Have a look at the bottom of this years PN list to see if your club returned last year, and if they didn't, please ask your sailing committee why not. We are more than happy to help get you started.

Chris
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