What classes will survive ?

Originally posted by NickA It's not just speed, is it.  It's the fact that the 29er has a modern gust responsive rig, is properly designed for trapezing and performing quick maneouvres, that it's a good training boat for "proper" skiffs.  Also it will plane up wind if you get it right, which means there is a tactical choice between footing off and planing vs heading up at hull speed, which I don't think exists on the 420 tugboat. If speed's your thing it beats a 420 hands down of course, but for tactical racing I'd think it was more interesting too. If you plan to grow into a 470 (why would you) or a 5o5 (and why wouldn't you) then I guess the 420 has its place.  But better still to get your dad to buy a 5o5 or a Javelin (that's a european javelin, not one our your antipodean ones!). And as for oppies & toppers .... don't get me started

LONG POST 'CAUSE IT'S A COMPLICATED SUBJECT

I suppose this gets down a personal thing - do you just assume that fast
boats are the future despite the fact that not that many people choose to
sail them, or do you assume that the best path for sailing is illustrated by
looking at the classes that people actually choose to sail?

Personally, I think the latter is best and it also respects more people.
Sailors are not stupid. Unless we think the vast (and growing) majority
who choose to sail slow boats are ignorant, fools, or corwards, we have to
accept that they choose to sail RS200s etc in big numbers because those
boats suit what they want from their sport.

A few comments

1- The 29er has a 'modern gust responsive rig' because it suits its style -
Julian B actually says that a more stable boat like a 420/470 is actually
better off with the rig it's got.

2- As has been pointed out, the 420 has an upwind planing groove as
well.

3- Off topic a bit, but I dunno about the tactics; my singlehanders range
from F16 type cat to a Radial, and I find the tactics involved in DDW to be
about as important as in tacking downwind, with the added spice of
surfing.

Sure, people find apparent-wind tactics are fascinating (and they are) but
IMHO part of the fascination comes from the novelty we get when we
move from the normal DDW classes into apparent-wind boats. It's just
something new, rather than a case where apparent-wind tactics are
inherently more interesting. I've been in classes where rule and wind
changes have switched the craft from DDW specialists to apparent-wind
machines and vice-versa, and from my angle I can't see why either one is
superior.

4- The 29er isn't really an argument for more radical boats, because it's
not quick, light, modern, radical, or high tech for a 14 foot long skiff
type. Julian and his partners de-tuned it to make it suitable for more
sailors, and it's a great boat. It's just at a different point on the spectrum
to the 420, but neither of them are close to the extremes, because the
extremes do not attract many sailors. Even in the Aussie Skiff classes and
the development cat classes, the least extreme boats are the most
popular.

5- BTW, the 505 and UK Jav seem to be actually slower, compared to the
Bethwaite equivalent, than the 420 'tugboat' is compared to its Bethwaite
equivalent. What's slower than a tugboat? A barge?

Yet 505s and UK Javs are GREAT boats, so it can't all be about pace.

One thing that's interesting about 505s is that back in the mid '70s, they
ranked in the top 10 of the Y&Y Nationals Attendance Table. The 'Ball was
about 3rd. The average speed of the boats in the top 10 of the Table was
at its peak and (IIRC from the time I was researching it) they were quicker
than the top 10 in earlier times or today. And yet just at the time that the
average speed of the top 10 classes reached its peak (at a time when
boards and cats were still very much in the minority), dinghy sailing
started its long slump in popularity. So having lots and lots of faster boats
certainly didn't help dinghy sailing back then.

6- I'd rather my nephews were sailing Toppers, than selling their high-
tech, fiddly expensive 'little skiffs' as they are doing. Our eldest started
off in Tornadoes, did a couple of nationals in an F16 type cat (fastest 16
footer in the world at the time) and at 18 he hasn't stepped on a boat for
years. These are only personal tales, yet they repeat the message that the
facts - the sheer hard numbers of the classes that people sail - tell us
time and time again. People do not prefer faster classes. IMHO those who
abuse slower boats are hurting the sport they love.

This argument is really only about two sorts of boat, displacement hulls
v's planing hulls.

For a class to survive long term imo it requires a hull shape that works
across the full gamut of conditions. Drifter thru gliding into planing and
to be able to continue that planing momentum even when it has to be up
short steep hills.

Now some displacement hulls do plane as well, but there are very few if
any flat skiffy hulls that work in displacement conditions and
unfortunately most clubs and club sailing is time driven rather than
condition.

So having lashed out on the latest and greatest only to have some grey
haired fox in an old displacement tub, totally destroy that fragile young
ego is my guess as to what happens all to often at Club Level, it certainly
occurs at ours.

My guess is it also happens with older egos, sailing may be more about
the participation than the end result, but unless a sense of personal
achievement by progress to the occasional top end position occurs, then
apathy soon turns to absense, which is always the limiting factor of OD
racing eventually.

Chasing planing only performance is what killed competitive windsurfing
and there was a time when our numbers far exceeded dinghy turnouts,
and if you remember it wasn't so long ago I pointed out the relative joy of
gybing a 49er, was going in exactly the same direction, face it, however
much they might have howled at that thread, the simple fact was, very
very good sailors with a lot more experience than the average desk
jockey and weekend warrior couldn't handle them so where is their
aftermarket?

If there is no aftermarket once the high end guys finish, then there is no
class future. I do remember wondering in the days I struggled with that
other "performance stallion" the MPS, if they had fitted it with floats on
the racks or the racks could have been wider, or both, maybe my 65 kgs
could have eventually mastered it, but whatever, it's academic now and
both my and the classes loss. The fact I couldn't and since I've mastered
just about everything else I've attempted in life doesn't bode well for large
numbers in the future.

So my point?

The future will be the province of boats that can take all conditions by as
wide a range of sailor skills as possible and I hope in two days time the
first of that new generation will deliver exactly that to an excited new
owner.

I can't wait and am counting the hours...

Edited by G.R.F

just thought we needed some visual light relief...

The answer to this thread is a social economic and physiological one, mixed with a governing body class support.

The classes that will survive are the classes that reflect to mood of the relevant cultures that they exist in, and the amount of support they get from governing bodies / external sources.

Fast skiff types do an important job for the sport in terms of aspiration.

The slower displacement types provide real world use for most at a level of commitment / fitness that is achievable.

The other consideration is suitability to the prevailing sailing conditions.

But within these considerations there will be winners and losers.

And that is down to the ability to response to conditions presented to each class at any given time.

( I'll get back to this latter got to do something now.... )

I also think, given the economic climate, that at the moment, few boat builders are going to feel inclined to branch into new markets.  I would have thought this was a time for consolidation rather than experiment, which is a shame but the safer option.