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Sussex Lad
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Topic: Clubs still allowing sailing Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:17pm |
Originally posted by Paramedic
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it |
I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.
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Please explain, I may have missed your point.
Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.
Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.
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Paramedic
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:33pm |
Originally posted by A2Z
I’m not sure this is quite right. For starters everyone dies eventually, so the claim “they were going to die anyway” is perhaps better phrased as “they probably only had a few years life expectancy”. But even that isn’t true. What we know for sure is that somewhere between 50% and 80% more people are dieing than would normally be expected. It is reasonable to assume this is either directly or indirectly because of Coronavirus. |
A doctor (possibly virologist) was on R4 one morning a couple of weeks ago and said words to the effect of 90% of those who were dying had at 6-12 months to live at best. He said that what the NHS did not have the capacity for was for all these people to become morbidly ill and die at the same time.
Not wishing to sound unfeeling, morbid or whatever but it will be quite interesting to see if the overall death rate drops after all this is over.
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Paramedic
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:37pm |
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Please explain, I may have missed your point.
Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.
Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.
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COVID-19 is a notifiable disease.
So when someone dies while ill with COVID-19 it is extremely likely be recorded as COVID-19 on their death certificate whether they died of COVID-19, were also seriously ill with something else, or even fell down the stairs.
I agree that over counting is more likely to happen now they are including all settings.
We wont ever know the full figures, because we will never truly know exactly how many people have had it.
Edited by Paramedic - 27 Apr 20 at 3:39pm
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fab100
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:45pm |
Originally posted by iGRF
Originally posted by fab100
who do I wave my credit card at?]
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Buy a GP14, they're the next best thing to being invisible..  |
I am not that desperate
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423zero
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:09pm |
They said the Spanish flu had died out after its first wave was interrupted by the summer, then came back in the autumn, far worse.
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Robert
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NicolaJayne
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:15pm |
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Originally posted by Paramedic
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it |
I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.
|
Please explain, I may have missed your point.
Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.
Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.
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you have missed the point 1. the weekly ONS figures do include community deaths (including in care homes) where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate 2. there is a difference between dying OF something and dying with Something to die OF Covid-19 you;d be looking at the people who have the Covid related can't ventilate syndrome and the associated viral sepsis to split the Of / with thing consider type I diabetes you can die 'of' it - you get DKA and you die because of the acidotic state you can die with it - say you are driving along in your car have a hypo and crash into a bridge parapet ... if you weren't diabetic you probably wouldn't have had the crash - so being diabetic contributed to it but you died of the massive internal injuries from piling into the concrete parapet at 70 mph so how does this translate to Covid-19 consider that to get a care home bed you have to be pretty frail , especially a nursing home bed - generally these individuals especially in 'general' beds rather than Mental health / dementia beds have a life expectency on admission of months to a few years... their physiological reserve is much diminished i.e it doesn't take much to tip them from their usual day to day level to being profoundly and life threateningly ill
Edited by NicolaJayne - 27 Apr 20 at 6:32pm
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:27pm |
Nonetheless if 10k a week usually die and now 18k are, it is reasonable to assume the majority of the extra 8k are dieing of Covid19. That’s about 15 Grenfell Towers worth of Covid victims every day, whilst in lockdown.
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Paramedic
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:45pm |
Originally posted by 423zero
They said the Spanish flu had died out after its first wave was interrupted by the summer, then came back in the autumn, far worse. |
You'd like to think we've come on a bit in 100 years, but I dont disagree that come this winter we will find ourselves subject to similar restrictions. If its the right thing to do, you wont find me complaining :)
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Sussex Lad
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 5:07pm |
Originally posted by NicolaJayne
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Originally posted by Paramedic
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it |
I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.
|
Please explain, I may have missed your point.
Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.
Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.
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you have missed the point
1. the weekly ONS figures do include community deaths ( in care homes) where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate
2. there is a difference between dying OF something and dying with Something
to die OF Covid-19 you;d be looking at the people who have the Covid related can't ventilate syndrome and the associated viral sepsis
to split the Of / with thing
consider type I diabetes
you can die 'of' it - you get DKA and you die because of the acidotic state
you can die with it - say you are driving along in your car have a hypo and crash into a bridge parapet ... if you weren't diabeitic you probably wouldn;t have had the crash - so being diabetic contributed to it but you died of the massive internal injuries from piling into concrete parapet at 70 mph
so how does this translate to Covid-19
consider that to get a care home bed you have to be pretty frail , especially a nursing home bed - generally these individuals especially in 'general' beds rather than Mental health / dementia beds have a life expectency on admission of months to a few years...
their physiological reserve is much diminished i.e it doesn't take much to tip them from their usual day to day level to being profoundly and life threateningly ill
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Thanks for that Nicola. Professional I take it?
Edited by Sussex Lad - 27 Apr 20 at 5:11pm
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zeon
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Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 6:30pm |
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Originally posted by NicolaJayne
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Originally posted by Paramedic
Originally posted by Sussex Lad
Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it |
I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.
|
Please explain, I may have missed your point.
Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.
Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.
|
you have missed the point
1. the weekly ONS figures do include community deaths ( in care homes) where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate
2. there is a difference between dying OF something and dying with Something
to die OF Covid-19 you;d be looking at the people who have the Covid related can't ventilate syndrome and the associated viral sepsis
to split the Of / with thing
consider type I diabetes
you can die 'of' it - you get DKA and you die because of the acidotic state
you can die with it - say you are driving along in your car have a hypo and crash into a bridge parapet ... if you weren't diabeitic you probably wouldn;t have had the crash - so being diabetic contributed to it but you died of the massive internal injuries from piling into concrete parapet at 70 mph
so how does this translate to Covid-19
consider that to get a care home bed you have to be pretty frail , especially a nursing home bed - generally these individuals especially in 'general' beds rather than Mental health / dementia beds have a life expectency on admission of months to a few years...
their physiological reserve is much diminished i.e it doesn't take much to tip them from their usual day to day level to being profoundly and life threateningly ill
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Thanks for that Nicola. Professional I take it?
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+1 with the thanks , Nicola
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