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polc1410 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 26 Apr 20 at 10:15pm
IGRF

Here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/879710/National_influenze_report_16_April_2020_week_16.pdf

Figure 3. No cases of normal flu detected in week 15 through the GP sampling program. Between vaccination, improved hygeine and social distancing you can safely conclude normal flu is not an issue right now.


You need to stop reading Facebook and the daily Express and you'll stop seeing so much contradiction.

I'm sure I've linked to it before, but the FT data team have been doing some impressive work and todayha e published all cause mortality for 12coubtries. It's laggy because it doesn't get daily data like covid does. But it's stark. ~ 50% increase. That means if the same effect was world wide for say 6 weeks,you'd be looking at 3million EXCESS deaths. Half the population of Scotland. Two the population of Wales. Feel free to show some counter stars to that and I will explain why they differ

Recovery... Takes time. People are publishing data. You clearly aren't in the right places.

Suicide: you may be right. I think that's in the ONS data, but likely even more laggy as will need a coroner inquest. Doubt it's 10,000 a week though.

You e had the logic of preventing you going on the water explained. What you arent willing to do is actually listen because it doesn't fit your agenda. The risk to YOU on the water. Tiny. The risk to others.probanly also Tiny. The risk of influencing others to break the social distancing and start doing things that they perceive as low risk... Bigger. Everyone needs to just STFU and get on with it. It won't be forever.
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Paramedic View Drop Down
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Posts: 929 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 7:04am
Originally posted by iGRF

[QUOTE=A2Z] deaths to support the figures.

Here's a question I posed elsewhere, what's happened to the normal garden variety flu figures?


Its on Wikipedia. 2019-2020 seasonal flu - 800 million infected. 0.45 - 1.2 million deaths. 

Typical flu year - 240 million - 1.6 billion infections. 240,000 - 650,000 deaths.

These are worldwide figures.

I would question how many of 2019-2020 infections and deaths are COVID-19 before its detection. But it looks like a rough year for flu .


Edited by Paramedic - 27 Apr 20 at 7:07am
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Mozzy View Drop Down
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Posts: 209 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Mozzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 8:44am
I think the big worry was the virus overloading NHS and care services. That there would be a knock on impact for people with other health conditions getting access to medical help. And we would see many covid, and other health conditions die because of lack of access to health care.  

This, thankfully, to a large extent we have avoided. Looking at Italy and Spain it was clear that this could become a problem. 

But, my other half works in social care (occupational therapist) where all none critical services were cut to make staff available for secondment to covid wards and to stop spread in the community via staff. In the end, they've not really been needed. There's been plenty of extra capacity, mostly through premature discharge and cancelling of non-critical hospital visits. 

What's alarming in the excess deaths data is how many of the extra deaths aren't recorded as covid. Possibly under reporting of covid, but surely by April it was forefront of coroners minds? I wounder how many of these extra deaths are those who would normally be getting 'non-critical care' in the community, or having minor operations and where more serious ills are picked up and treated early. How many are people not going to hospitals with strokes and heart attacks. The 'excess deaths' number tells us how many are dying as a result of both the virus, and the measures to combat the virus. 

I also think about the many who have missed cancer screening and the ticking clock there. 

Then there are people who have had non-critical, but still life changing procedures cancelled.

And the longer restrictions go on, the more these 'non-critical' situation fester. 

So, I fully agree with the lock down. But the longer it goes on, the more important it becomes to open up the non-critical, especially as it becomes clear we're not seeing a disastrous overloading of the NHS, which of course was the aim of lockdown.  

We need to ask ourselves what measures we can take, what changes we can issue, for these non-critical, but still terribly important activities to take place. The lock-down has worked. We need to think about the collateral damage. 

Sailing is a microcosm of the above. Just like the the patients discharged early, with no community care, who don't just disappear, the sailors who aren't on the water don't just disappear. There are some great minds working on solutions to the main problem, with vaccine and testing. But for the rest we should be asking how we can limit the collateral in other aspects of life by altering our behaviours but still realising benefits.


Edited by Mozzy - 27 Apr 20 at 9:28am
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423zero View Drop Down
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Posts: 3420 		Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 9:00am
Nice Post mozzy   
Robert
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Posts: 1345 		Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 9:28am
This makes interesting reading https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/coronavirus-the-man-who-convinced-sweden-not-to-go-into-lockdown/news-story/9a0519b6e2e8cb47b1e2cae2228c3b3d (this is a Times subscriber article but the link gives free access to the whole thing)

Hindsight is a great thing, but I cant help wonder if this approach together with targeting some of the huge amounts of money at elderly care homes might have caused less economic/well being impact?
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Posts: 109 		Post Options Post Options   Quote NicolaJayne Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 11:44am
Originally posted by Mozzy

I think the big worry was the virus overloading NHS and care services. That there would be a knock on impact for people with other health conditions getting access to medical help. And we would see many covid, and other health conditions die because of lack of access to health care.  

This, thankfully, to a large extent we have avoided. Looking at Italy and Spain it was clear that this could become a problem. 

But, my other half works in social care (occupational therapist) where all none critical services were cut to make staff available for secondment to covid wards and to stop spread in the community via staff. In the end, they've not really been needed. There's been plenty of extra capacity, mostly through premature discharge and cancelling of non-critical hospital visits. 

What's alarming in the excess deaths data is how many of the extra deaths aren't recorded as covid. Possibly under reporting of covid, but surely by April it was forefront of coroners minds? I wounder how many of these extra deaths are those who would normally be getting 'non-critical care' in the community, or having minor operations and where more serious ills are picked up and treated early. How many are people not going to hospitals with strokes and heart attacks. The 'excess deaths' number tells us how many are dying as a result of both the virus, and the measures to combat the virus. 

I also think about the many who have missed cancer screening and the ticking clock there. 

Then there are people who have had non-critical, but still life changing procedures cancelled.

And the longer restrictions go on, the more these 'non-critical' situation fester. 

So, I fully agree with the lock down. But the longer it goes on, the more important it becomes to open up the non-critical, especially as it becomes clear we're not seeing a disastrous overloading of the NHS, which of course was the aim of lockdown.  

We need to ask ourselves what measures we can take, what changes we can issue, for these non-critical, but still terribly important activities to take place. The lock-down has worked. We need to think about the collateral damage. 

Sailing is a microcosm of the above. Just like the the patients discharged early, with no community care, who don't just disappear, the sailors who aren't on the water don't just disappear. There are some great minds working on solutions to the main problem, with vaccine and testing. But for the rest we should be asking how we can limit the collateral in other aspects of life by altering our behaviours but still realising benefits.


speaking to my  contacts  ( and friends ) on the front lines the excess deaths  is in part people who fail to seek help when they should - so instead of seeking help of r that chest pain or the  really bad  gut ache  they don;t  and then a day or two wake up dead one morning  as they reinfarcted or their appendix burst  etc etc .... 
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iGRF View Drop Down
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 11:59am
Originally posted by polc1410

IGRF

Here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/879710/National_influenze_report_16_April_2020_week_16.pdf

Figure 3. No cases of normal flu detected in week 15 through the GP sampling program. Between vaccination, improved hygeine and social distancing you can safely conclude normal flu is not an issue right now.

Thanks for that, why am I not surprised that normal flu isn't an issue right now.
Originally posted by polc1410

IGRF
You need to stop reading Facebook and the daily Express and you'll stop seeing so much contradiction.

Now now, don't be a dick
Originally posted by polc1410


I'm sure I've linked to it before, but the FT data team have been doing some impressive work and todayha e published all cause mortality for 12coubtries. It's laggy because it doesn't get daily data like covid does. But it's stark. ~ 50% increase. That means if the same effect was world wide for say 6 weeks,you'd be looking at 3million EXCESS deaths. Half the population of Scotland. Two the population of Wales. Feel free to show some counter stars to that and I will explain why they differ
Can't provide stats, but did read from an Israeli source that the virus is expected to die out withing 70-90 days naturally from some professor or other who is also questioning lockdown in that country.

Originally posted by polc1410


Recovery... Takes time. People are publishing data. You clearly aren't in the right places.

Suicide: you may be right. I think that's in the ONS data, but likely even more laggy as will need a coroner inquest. Doubt it's 10,000 a week though.
I don't think there's any doubt and we'll hear more in the coming days.

Originally posted by polc1410


You e had the logic of preventing you going on the water explained. What you arent willing to do is actually listen because it doesn't fit your agenda. The risk to YOU on the water. Tiny. The risk to others.probanly also Tiny. The risk of influencing others to break the social distancing and start doing things that they perceive as low risk... Bigger.

Well here's a thing, we have difficulty persuading folk to join us at the best of times, I don't see why now should be any different.

   
Originally posted by polc1410

Everyone needs to just STFU and get on with it. It won't be forever.


Er no we don't.

Other than that thanks I'll forgive all the literals will just put it down to big sweaty fingers in those disposable surgical gloves on a phone keyboard.
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Sussex Lad View Drop Down
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Posts: 360 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 12:17pm
Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

Flu figures for who's had or got it are also wildly inaccurate over the years.

Even after the event the current government will bullsh*t about the figures. Excess winter deaths for 2017/18 were in the region of 50,000. The government wanted folk to believe this was because of ineffective flu vaccine. Health experts said it was because of cuts to the NHS reducing their ability to respond, austerity. The BMJ in this article are concerned with the "exaggerated" death figures being attributed to flu.

With the current issue it's in the governments interest to under exaggerate the numbers.

After the government have played politics with the issue we'll likely never know what the true facts and figures are.


https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6
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Posts: 3420 		Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 12:30pm
Al Jazera, published figures for Italy about a month ago, they claimed that the mortality rate for first 3 weeks of March 2019, first 3 weeks of March 2020 were four times greater.

Edited by 423zero - 27 Apr 20 at 12:31pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 1:10pm
Originally posted by NicolaJayne

Originally posted by Mozzy

I think the big worry was the virus overloading NHS and care services. That there would be a knock on impact for people with other health conditions getting access to medical help. And we would see many covid, and other health conditions die because of lack of access to health care.  

This, thankfully, to a large extent we have avoided. Looking at Italy and Spain it was clear that this could become a problem. 

But, my other half works in social care (occupational therapist) where all none critical services were cut to make staff available for secondment to covid wards and to stop spread in the community via staff. In the end, they've not really been needed. There's been plenty of extra capacity, mostly through premature discharge and cancelling of non-critical hospital visits. 

What's alarming in the excess deaths data is how many of the extra deaths aren't recorded as covid. Possibly under reporting of covid, but surely by April it was forefront of coroners minds? I wounder how many of these extra deaths are those who would normally be getting 'non-critical care' in the community, or having minor operations and where more serious ills are picked up and treated early. How many are people not going to hospitals with strokes and heart attacks. The 'excess deaths' number tells us how many are dying as a result of both the virus, and the measures to combat the virus. 

I also think about the many who have missed cancer screening and the ticking clock there. 

Then there are people who have had non-critical, but still life changing procedures cancelled.

And the longer restrictions go on, the more these 'non-critical' situation fester. 

So, I fully agree with the lock down. But the longer it goes on, the more important it becomes to open up the non-critical, especially as it becomes clear we're not seeing a disastrous overloading of the NHS, which of course was the aim of lockdown.  

We need to ask ourselves what measures we can take, what changes we can issue, for these non-critical, but still terribly important activities to take place. The lock-down has worked. We need to think about the collateral damage. 

Sailing is a microcosm of the above. Just like the the patients discharged early, with no community care, who don't just disappear, the sailors who aren't on the water don't just disappear. There are some great minds working on solutions to the main problem, with vaccine and testing. But for the rest we should be asking how we can limit the collateral in other aspects of life by altering our behaviours but still realising benefits.


speaking to my  contacts  ( and friends ) on the front lines the excess deaths  is in part people who fail to seek help when they should - so instead of seeking help of r that chest pain or the  really bad  gut ache  they don;t  and then a day or two wake up dead one morning  as they reinfarcted or their appendix burst  etc etc .... 
Yes, but not 8000 a week.  
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