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Dinghies in 2035
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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    Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 1:23pm
I don't think it's at the bottom yet.... sorry but there just aren't enough active lifelong sailors at parental age standing up to the inevitable push back from their kids who decide it's just not for them. I don't suggest today's kids are 'soft', they just want broader life experiences and have more engaging virtual distractions than we did- even by 8 years old.

That's why so many folks have a break during key parenting years - dinghy sailing just doesn't fit with family life unless you've got the buy-in from the family.

Most of us got into sailing through our parents - something we are now no longer repeating the cycle. (I'd guess less than 25% of my 'sailing mates' have converted their own kids... a good chunk of us don't even sail ourselves right now either.)  Unless there's a seismic change in focus from the RYA from performance spiralling to grass roots participation, the piecemeal amateur marketing by volunteer club publicity officers is just pissing in the wind. 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 1:00pm
I think we've hit the bottom of the decline. I do expect some consolidation over the next 10 years of clubs, but not really classes. 

Format of racing
I think there might be growth in adventure races. Like a rally type thing. Thinking of the archipelago race. I think as handheld nav gets better as well as personal safety equipment plus sailing apparel it's more attainable. 

I think TV shortened people attention span. But video games actually expands it. But the back to nature escapism is something people look for. Like the point to point cycling races. 

Boats
Much the same. I think a few classes may go through minor changes in usability. But otherwise I don't see much difference. I do wonder how long the move toward single handers will continue for. To me, it seems under 25s are still more attracted to double handers. 

Kit
Some fancy stuff around. Like aero gels which have insane insulating properties. Already being used in some ski jacket pockets to stop your mobile draining. But they can also be made to be hugely water repellent... just give these videos a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeJ9q45PfD0

Tech
I hope to see tech like the TruSail stuff making itself more affordable. I don't want to see it used in races but for training and just messing about I would love it and looking at how Strava and power meters gave a huge boost to cycling, i think the same could be said for TruSail and the tracking app Simon Hiscocks was promoting at the boat show. 
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 11:32am
Originally posted by fab100

TT

You've been paying to much attention to manipulated 15 year old Swedish girls

that sounds genuinely worrying.... 

and of course there was a heavy dose of sarcasm and in-joking in my post. 

Where do I think dinghy sailing the in the UK will be in 2035?

Pretty much the same as it currently is.... a niche activity that will consolidate a bit. 

Whether this is through natural wastage (clubs going bust) or managed attrition (club mergers) could influence the outcome, but I don't think there will be as many sailing clubs active as there currently are today.

I think the boats will largely be a mix of popular singlehanders with a few randoms and legacy class examples that don't really fit for the club, but no one really takes too seriously.
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Posts: 1005 		Post Options Post Options   Quote fab100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 11:20am
TT

You've been paying to much attention to manipulated 15 year old Swedish girls
Great book for Club Sailors here
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CT249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 399 		Post Options Post Options   Quote CT249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 10:40am
Sailing will look at SUPping, cycling and other sports that are doing well and finally remember that it's not about high-tech extreme speed, but about accessibility and fun. The major "classic" classes, along with some RSs and J yachts, will still do well. The Holt style boats will have failed to update properly and will mostly be fading or gone, sadly. The 420, one of the world's biggest and top-selling classes, may also be fading if it doesn't adapt properly (which IMHO means keeping the same performance but reducing cost and hassle).  Sailing will have replaced them with simpler new "family" boats and that will be helping the whole sport. Foiling and skiffs will still be great niche products, just as really fast cats and skiffs have never become anything more than niche products.

Looking back at that old thread shows that many of the contributors were pretty well on the money - dramatically more accurate in their prognostications than the self-styled gurus who were screeching "foiler foiler foiler" at the date of that thread. When people said there would be little change, they were correct.  But none of us foresaw that in 2019, the top selling sailing classes would be a pair of cheap plastic pop-out RC yachts and an update of the original Windsurfer. Those facts alone - which have been ignored by a sailing industry that is so obsessed with extreme speed that it cannot actually see what is happening in the real world - seem to be very significant.

If tough times are looming, by the way, things like modern consumerism and overseas holidays may collapse. People will look to sports they can do at home, with gear that lasts for eons. Considering how well modern sailing craft last, and how well a '70s boat can be updated, a new austerity could be great for sailing and especially dinghy and board sailing.

I'm in two of the world's three fastest-growing classes and at a tiny club that is growing. It's really not that hard to make the sport grow, a lot of the time. 


Edited by CT249 - 02 Oct 19 at 10:55am
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Posts: 98 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Mark Aged 42 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 9:36am
By 2035 the very high (by todays values) oil price means that transporting plastic products and raw materials will be prohibitively expensive.
So those die hards who have the time and inclination to sail will be choosing their boats from the diminishing pool of available kit. Nothing new, just second hand.
This end of era down spiral will affect the availability of clothing, boots, gloves, hats, rope, shackles, masts, sails, trolleys, tyres, repair kits.....
Coracles anybody?
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Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 9:35am
Sea levels will continue rise, ice will fall off the mountains, rains will come and floods commonplace as the water table is full.

The 'renewable energies' facade will be replaced by total green power - pedals & wind, 'sold' back to us as something we used to do for pleasure.

Those of us who still have jobs, employment that can't be automated, could well be sailing to work on a network of control-flooded plains, canals, inland rivers, inlets and lakes etc.  Just like Greta the other week, commuting to the UN by sail boat.  I'm not sure all of us will have those Royal connections that boast Grace Kelly as their grandmother, so I'm guessing the solar-powered €4m superyacht won't be the standard issue we can come to expect.

It'll probably be nothing short of some stubby-pedalo creation resembling a Laser Vortex for those of us with a genuine maritime history.  You won't own it, you'll rent it by the hour and hope to hell you're not liable for any osmosis.  At least Daniel Holman might get a half decent royalty deposit from this one...... if he gets in quicksmart now with the patents.

I saw an RS Cat converted into a motor boat the other day- very disruption technology for the pleasure craft industry - if a little Fred's Shed in execution.  It was ferrying tourists around a marina as they took selfies and pretended to eat ice cream for their Instagram following- it at least looked far more functional than its original intended design and would probably give Riki less headaches.

Uber are already investing in pump-up SUPs for Amsterdam - multi-mode transport for the non-binary gender generation. I'm going to draw the line at an eScooter myself.

Hobie have some kind of hybrid boat/bike thing already.... ridiculous craft, choice of blue or yellow. You've heard of the Boris Bike, check out Corbyn Creeper or the Farage Floater.... who knows whicht**t will get in first, we're f**ked either way anyway.



Bottom line, the last thing we will want to do at weekends is to get on a sodding boat or go out on the water.  So Royston Vesey SC and its dwindling fleet of Miracles and Solos will have met their end on a random 5th of November long before 2035.  Probably just after eviction for defaulting their lease as some sorry sod 'Acting Commodore' has a total breakdown. Volunteering is not good for your mental health in 2035, but then we know that already and have done f**k all about it to prepare  the sailing clubs.   As for the members, those left still on the WhatsApp group, guess they should have bought Aeros and encouraged some kids to get involved when they had the chance; but hey, at least they'll have 3D porn in their nursing homes and a steady supply of domestically produced post-Brexit meds to make it viable.

On a positive note, iGRF will still be posting about a new handicap system on the Y&Y forum....  at least until one of the Daughters of Darkness clears out the attic and burns that f**king portrait.  

She'll get her grubby mitts on that inheritance one day....
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423zero View Drop Down
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Posts: 3420 		Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 9:02am
Will probably mirror last 15 years, hardly any change, PY will still be worth 20 pages.
Robert
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fab100 View Drop Down
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Posts: 1005 		Post Options Post Options   Quote fab100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 19 at 7:59am
here’s a thought to raise grf’s spirits...

the campaign for recyclable plastic (and against oil based materials generallyj will mean new boats will have to be made from good old tree-wood.

and sails will be need to be cotton again.
Great book for Club Sailors here
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Posts: 305 		Post Options Post Options   Quote DiscoBall Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Oct 19 at 11:17pm
Originally posted by mozzy

  What will dinghy racing be like?  Will we have lost the close combat of slowish one designs (like the Laser) and all be racing skiffs and foilers where one gust takes you half a mile in front of your competitors?


I think when it comes to foilers there are probably more people with misguided business plans for 'people's foilers' than there are potential buyers.  Wink 

The moths will probably carry on at their present level but the market will be littered with yet more stillborn (ridiculously expensive) foiler 'classes'.  Ermm

The sticking point for high performance classes is that a non-sailor today is starting from exactly the same point on the learning curve as in 1960, or 1900, or.... The idea that they'll somehow leapfrog traditional sailing and go straight to a skiff - when no real training pathway exists - doesn't add up.

If anything the sport will have contracted further and participation consolidated on the low performance classes. Whilst that could leave room for a re-imagining and growth in another direction, I suspect that it and many other expensive 'kit' sports will be fading and seen as something of a historical anomaly.
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