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Dynamic ratings from Sailracer.
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Do Different View Drop Down
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Posts: 1312 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Do Different Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Dynamic ratings from Sailracer.
    Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 11:39am
http://sailracer.org/ResultsEntry/Article/Dynamic%20GPS%20Handicapping

Something to chew on for the New Year.

I have to take my hat off to the effort this lot are putting in. I guess so long you know what you are signing into it is hard to fault the notion of nobody copping a stinker day.

For my part at home I quite like the lottery variable conditions impart to Club handicap racing; "every dog has his day".  I did the first Sailracer Weymouth and would be ok to give this a go if I was doing another one. Truth is I have simply enjoyed getting involved in a few bigger events and will always judge myself against the same or similar boats, final numbers are not without value but I'll not shed too many tears or delude myself.
  
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Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
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Posts: 3401 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 12:00pm
Interesting point about the old/new boat conundrum, that an old DIY Solo could be expected to be 6% slower than a new FRP one. But they don't take into account that the new boat is inevitably sailed by someone much more motivated/ambitious than the old which probably makes more than 6% difference....... The only way to truly calculate the difference age makes is to have both boats sailed by top sailors........
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
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Dougaldog View Drop Down
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Posts: 356 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Dougaldog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 1:22pm
Sam - this is pretty much the territory covered recently in "I am not a number". Much of the leg work has been done already and the 4-6% difference took CSF into account - so in reality, the margin could actually be larger.

In the end, it almost comes down to a philosophical debate: what do you want the PY system to do? Do you strive for the basic, non-interventionist way of thinking - as Do Different said, this allows every dog to have his day. Or,   do you use a clever systems approach, so that whatever the conditions, there is as level a playing field as can be practically made possible.

I'm now in the camp of thinking that it is no longer science fiction to create a better, more intelligent way of doing things, but at the same time, I accept that the views expressed in the debate that followed the publication of "I am not a Number" indicate that this remains currently a minority view.

D
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423zero View Drop Down
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Posts: 3420 		Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 6:50pm
To make Handicap racing about the Helm or Helm/crew, regardless of what they are sailing or weather conditions.
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Guests View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 6:54pm
The irony is the author only knows Dobson should be doing better because of results from class racing. 

Making the handicaps 'dynamic' I think is missing two points. 
1) The numbers are still generated from performances which are the product of boat and crew. No amount of statistics up-speak will gloss over the fact that they are inseparable and without a clear methodology the talk of 'vast amounts of data' , 'standard deviation and confidence interval' is just massaging numbers until the names the author thinks should be winning, are winning. 
2) I don't like the result not being obvious on the water. Corrected time handicapping is bad enough in this regard, but at least the maths are simple enough that you can estimate in your head and understand the calculation to check it ashore. No point being more accurate if people can't understand and believe it.  
  
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ian.r.mcdonald View Drop Down
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Posts: 440 		Post Options Post Options   Quote ian.r.mcdonald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 8:43pm
Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

Interesting point about the old/new boat conundrum, that an old DIY Solo could be expected to be 6% slower than a new FRP one. But they don't take into account that the new boat is inevitably sailed by someone much more motivated/ambitious than the old which probably makes more than 6% difference....... The only way to truly calculate the difference age makes is to have both boats sailed by top sailors........


I think you are right, the 6% difference may well apply when comparing an original Solo sailed against a brand new boat with the pro sailor in one and the 60 year old ( thats me!) in the other. But the concept that on flat water a double floored and modern rigged wooden Solo is significantly slower is incorrect. Is the next plan to split each class into 3 or 4 speed groups?
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423zero View Drop Down
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Posts: 3420 		Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 9:05pm
I think Merlin class and Finn class do this already, new handicap and classic handicap.
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ian.r.mcdonald View Drop Down
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Posts: 440 		Post Options Post Options   Quote ian.r.mcdonald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 9:11pm
having rubbished the concept, I have to own up that my club has a different handicap for old and new Solo!
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 9:15pm
Hmmm, I think that firstly they are overly congratulatory to themselves when discussing the GL handicaps. Secondly, I feel they miss the point of why people handicap race at clubs. It is a competitive passtime. The idea of not knowing what handicap you'll be given until a computer decides, after the event, will turn people off in droves. Pursuit races will have to have start times decided by divination.

At one point, it is mentioned that boats plane at different wind strengths. Presumably, we will all need to be weighed, too? Pretty sure I'd start planing in a Phantom well before the average Phantom sailor, and in a Topper well after the average Topper sailor.
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
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Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
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Posts: 3401 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 17 at 9:24pm
And I think that is fair enough but the point should be that the handicap reflects the boat not the sailor and the GL system does at least address this to a point by culling the back half of the results from the stats. Beyond that I think the 'every dog has it's day' approach has merits. It's good to see different handicaps for the different versions of classes that have seen major changes in performance and a small, simple 'age allowance' for those which have remained substantially 'one design' (Enterprise say) with only small incremental improvements would be nice too.

The ultimate and to the GPS based handicap system would be to allocate different handicaps on a leg by leg basis according to wind strength, sea state and direction  Confused which would make the results incomprehensible to all. I agree with mozzy, I like that I can make an educated guess where I stand during the race.......
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
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