New Posts New Posts RSS Feed: PY Numbers for 2017
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Register Register  Login Login

PY Numbers for 2017

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 1920212223 25>
Author
Paramedic View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 27 Jan 06
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 929
Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: PY Numbers for 2017
    Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 11:13am
Originally posted by giraffe






[DIV
Where did you make that up from. This link explains what the great lakes handicaps are.

http://greatlakes.org.uk/The-Method.php

Nothing about fleet size that I can find
[/QUOTE]

If you read the article it tells you that the numbers are based on data from the winter events = big fleet.
Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3401
Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 11:48am
And they discount the results of slower sailors in each class so the GLN reflects the performance of the boat when well sailed (i.e. it's potential rather than it's 'average' performance). 
Back to Top
Cirrus View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 29 Oct 15
Location: UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 590
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 11:50am
If you read the article it tells you that the numbers are based on data from the winter events = big fleet.

Anyone that has raced in the SJ series knows that many races ARE Pursuit and many others are events where fast/medium/slow start divisions are used.  The point is that vast majority of say Solo or Ents will not be racing off the same line at exactly the same time as 505s or similar for virtually all of the time.   In pursuits everyone should also get a relatively clear air start as well .  However the events do attract a high(er) proportion of good examples of many classes - and they do race on the same water on the same day .... and that is the key point.  The large fleet 'explanation' still holds overall as the sub-divisions themselves are large with 50+ on each sub start being common.  And the hypothetical Ents and Solo's etc mentioned above get to race against boats of broadly similar speed capability.   

These events often / usually max out in terms of entries.  They do enjoy good event organisation and the GL system does result in close competitive racing so they are doing something right for sure.    The PN and for that matter other handicap systems could be better still  - but the PN system in particular seems far less able to adapt given its basic methodology.   It is seemingly incapable of evolution .... and some numbers are really way off - hence GL in part.   We can discuss the underlying causes and the impact of their method and sampling strategy (the"all you can get" approach ?) but without any sampling change it really will remain a 'blunt knife'.   
Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3401
Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 12:46pm
I suppose the biggest difference will be that the GL handicaps reflect the potential of the boat and the PN the performance of the average boat/helm. I'd agree that the former is better (in theory at least).
Back to Top
Rupert View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 11 Aug 04
Location: Whitefriars sc
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 8956
Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 5:59pm
It doesn't reflect the potential at all. It is simply a narrower sample of sailors. There is nothing to say that entries in any one class are of equal ability to another.
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
Back to Top
Cirrus View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 29 Oct 15
Location: UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 590
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 6:13pm
It doesn't reflect the potential at all.....

And so what would be your (practical) alternative to get closer to measuring 'potential' ?   .. one thing is certain though ... the raw PN system 'technique' does not even attempt to produce such numberical results.  Furthermore in its current 'measure everything on offer' with little or no structuring or qualification it never will. 

Any handicap system will have both crew and boat factors wrapped up in the numbers and these factors are difficult to disaggregate.  However the success of the GL numbers and the closeness of the racing provided does indicate their numbers are perhaps getting a damn sight closer to what people really want ! 
Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3401
Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 6:17pm
Originally posted by Rupert

It doesn't reflect the potential at all. It is simply a narrower sample of sailors. There is nothing to say that entries in any one class are of equal ability to another.

TBF, it's the front 10% that sail a boat close to it's potential, the rest sail it to a lower standard so if you concentrate on those faster sailors you get a handicap that is closer to the boats speed.
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"
Back to Top
Rupert View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 11 Aug 04
Location: Whitefriars sc
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 8956
Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 7:18pm
I'm not trying to measure potential, so I don't need a method. I take the view that measuring actual results over years of differing conditions is going to give better average than picking 6 or 7 weekends of racing at largeish water venues and removing most of the data, or trying to plug things into a spreadsheet based on the very results people are deriding.

Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
Back to Top
Cirrus View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 29 Oct 15
Location: UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 590
Post Options Post Options   Quote Cirrus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 7:34pm

Fair enough .. so PN is fine as it is for you.  Nothing wrong with that either. 

Many others, possibly even the majority, want a system that more closely negates the impact of the choice of 'boat' and instead emphasises crew impact.  So that results are more based on the crew input in any particular race.  Don’t get me wrong the GL numbers will not always reward those who have sailed very well, that would be expecting too much,  but it will be more likely to do it just a bit more often.

Want to see the difference ?  Try running your local result timings under both sets of handicap figures.  You might be surprised, or then again maybe not.....   

Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3401
Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 17 at 7:51pm
Actually I'd expect it to have the opposite effect but, obviously it depends on how the GL committee decides who the "Poor performers [who] are excluded before class handicaps are computed in order to prevent undue influence by those who were late to the start, having a bad day or simply new to the sport or the boat."  However, I applaud a system that tries, at least, to eliminate the 'crew factor' from handicapping. The handicap should reflect the boats performance as much as it's possible to do so.

Edited by Sam.Spoons - 14 Mar 17 at 7:54pm
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 1920212223 25>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.665y
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz
Change your personal settings, or read our privacy policy