PY Numbers for 2017

Originally posted by E.J. No the variables are endless; A few I can think of, Maybe it was a year of conditions that don't suit the laser Maybe some clubs reclassified them mediumto slow fleet and now it against solos Maybe a chunk of the top sailors bought aero or zero Maybe lots of people learnt to sail and bought lasers Maybe lots club fleets were absorbed into the handicap fleet and the competition was hot. Maybe a mixture any or probably other

But:
1. Should be damped/filtered out.
2. Why would that change anything, unless implying a relative drop in standard?
3. An absolute drop in standard.
4. An absolute drop in standard.
5. A relative drop in standard.
None of which is reason to raise the PY - if the aim is to be a yardstick of boat performance.

Originally posted by A2Z Originally posted by E.J. No the variables are endless; A few I can think of, Maybe it was a year of conditions that don't suit the laser Maybe some clubs reclassified them mediumto slow fleet and now it against solos Maybe a chunk of the top sailors bought aero or zero Maybe lots of people learnt to sail and bought lasers Maybe lots club fleets were absorbed into the handicap fleet and the competition was hot. Maybe a mixture any or probably other But: 1. Should be damped/filtered out. 2. Why would that change anything, unless implying a relative drop in standard? 3. An absolute drop in standard. 4. An absolute drop in standard. 5. A relative drop in standard. None of which is reason to raise the PY - if the aim is to be a yardstick of boat performance.

Just because you dinghy types haven't 'done' something, doesn't mean it's not possible.

'Average" how do you think you work it out? You add them all up and divide by the mean. Or to start with you work it out on weight.

This formula of peakys works well if you tweak it a bit, and multiply the sail size by ten to get average weight and you'd be surprised how close it is to what exists at the moment.

if you don't trust it for your club what solution is there?

It is an extremely popular and predictable annual event .. the 'PN discussion' that is ..

Firstly the system does not pretend to assess / predict / represent what any class is capable of..... I think this is the real misunderstanding of the 'raw' PN system by many out there.   At best it is indicative at worse misleading.   This is pointed out each and every year.

It simply crunches as much data as possible to give a rough indication of the relative speed of the average example of each class.  What is there not to understand ?  You should know as well as the next pundit that in crude terms HALF of each class should be able to sail their boats FASTER in relative terms than the avearage.  Equally HALF of the owners don't sail as fast as the AVERAGE owner as well.   This stuff is not as straightforward as some think by a long way.

Go much beyond this deliberate simplicity and you get into the science (or otherwise) of sample selection.  If you want to know what a good example of a boat with a good helm is CAPABLE of  then you need to stop 'weighing' the amount of date involved and kiddling yourself and others that 'more is better' ... and well 'it MUST surely be better'  ...

Really really want to assess boat capability ?  Now that is something only partially related to the 'raw average' of any fleet ....  The sample you need to use may well be a subset of the 'mass' date you could use but you cannot simply get away from the need to have a structured sample.  It really is that basic.    Now we could 'discuss' how the sample should be composed to get closer to the 'capability' of any particular class but that is very much a different discussion.

'till another year then ....