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PY Numbers for 2017

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: PY Numbers for 2017
    Posted: 06 Mar 17 at 10:45pm
Originally posted by A2Z

Yes, you're right, but that's the point. 
On the one hand, over a single year and 20,000 results I wouldn't expect the standard in the Laser fleet to drop measurably. On the other hand, even if the standard has dropped, the PY scheme should try to filter this out as, in an ideal world, it would be a measure of boat performance rather than a measure of how well the typical owner sails it.
I appreciate that is difficult, but surely worth investigating. The RYA PYAG appear reluctant to interpret the results at all and prefer to just present the raw statistical result. 

Surely that's the point, the PY should represent an average sailor sailing the boat in average conditions, given big enough numbers that will just happen and any 'adjustment' can only be representative on a local basis. As soon as you try to 'filter' statistics it stops being statistics and becomes guesswork.......
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 17 at 10:49pm
Another thought, we know that Solos are mostly sailed by older sailors and 29ers by youngsters, should we reduce the 29er PN by 10% and increase the Solos by similar to compensate for the greater/lesser physical attributes of their respective crews?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 17 at 10:56pm
Filtering isn't guesswork, it is a vital part of estimation techniques. I'm sure some sort of filtering is already applied, otherwise boats with only a couple of hundred returns would get wild swings year on year. 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 17 at 11:07pm
There may well be, but if there is it ain't statistics (other that the kind touted by politicians and marketing companies). I do, however, agree that with a sample size of, say, less than a thousand (i.e. 2/3rds of the boats on the list) that probably isn't meaningful statistics either. The PYC may well limit the changes (as the suggest clubs do with their local variations) to a certain percentage to damp the wild swings caused by a small sample size but who knows? Whatever, it's an imperfect system but until Grumf get's his formula accepted it's probably as fair as any other.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote gordon1277 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 17 at 8:03am
The other reason people sail Lasers in club racing is cost, if you only want to invest a small amount in a boat for club racing then a £1500.00(or cheaper) boat with a replica sail is ideal(subject to physical suitabilty).
I think the reason the handicap for the laser is dropping is because so many old boats with knackered sails are being used by novices so it represents the average time for a laser to finish any race against other boats from the previous year.
But as 400 says the best Laser sailors all race one design so the boat will slowly come into being a bandit as this trend continues when used by the top guys in the odd handicap event.
Sorry I dont think the system we have is broken I just dont think some people listen when it is explained to them how it works.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 17 at 8:18am
So the standard of Laser sailing in handicap races is dropping year on year? Cheap boats and replica sails have been common for many years now, so Lasers have long appealed to less experienced sailors. indeed the cheap boats now have xd kits.
Is it that most other classes are getting faster *at a faster rate* than Lasers? I am listening, honest, I'm just slow.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote E.J. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 17 at 10:04am
No the variables are endless;

A few I can think of,

Maybe it was a year of conditions that don't suit the laser
Maybe some clubs reclassified them mediumto slow fleet and now it against solos
Maybe a chunk of the top sailors bought aero or zero
Maybe lots of people learnt to sail and bought lasers
Maybe lots club fleets were absorbed into the handicap fleet and the competition was hot.
Maybe a mixture any or probably other

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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 17 at 10:13am
When I first became engaged in this lark about ten or so years ago, our local series was dominated by a Guy in a Laser. OK his competition wasn't too hot, the start lines were shall we say less than busy, but it was a good average fleet and although we joined in as fairly competent ex windsurfer racers we were useless boat handlers so wouldn't have expected to place. My memory of our first serious year was in an RS500 sailing off 963 and I don't think we ever beat the Laser which salled off 1078 and it was an old beaten up thing.
Since then Lasers have had the XD super kicker thing, new Lasers have shown up ex circuit fully tricked out, there have been new sails, new 'trainer sails' which we know for certain are over sized and now and again better guys often show up and can really turn up the heat.
Now I love it if someone really good shows up nothing better to learn and improve from, but better guys and nearly 20 pips, that makes them Bandits, so all respect is lost.
How do Laser sailors then feel, they get their victories derided, it is a rare thing, a genuine pot hunting bandit, at least on the sea, we've just got the one Merlin and that's getting more honest each year.
It is really not character building all this, precisely the opposite, eventually you get encouraged to swap about using the system which further builds the derision of the whole process of handicap racing, instead of trying to improve folk become cynical and it becomes 'only' handicap racing which defeats the object entirely.

Edited by iGRF - 07 Mar 17 at 10:17am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 17 at 11:27am
Originally posted by iGRF

When I first became engaged in this lark about ten or so years ago, our local series was dominated by a Guy in a Laser. OK his competition wasn't too hot, the start lines were shall we say less than busy, but it was a good average fleet and although we joined in as fairly competent ex windsurfer racers we were useless boat handlers so wouldn't have expected to place. My memory of our first serious year was in an RS500 sailing off 963 and I don't think we ever beat the Laser which salled off 1078 and it was an old beaten up thing.
Since then Lasers have had the XD super kicker thing, new Lasers have shown up ex circuit fully tricked out, there have been new sails, new 'trainer sails' which we know for certain are over sized and now and again better guys often show up and can really turn up the heat.
Now I love it if someone really good shows up nothing better to learn and improve from, but better guys and nearly 20 pips, that makes them Bandits, so all respect is lost.
How do Laser sailors then feel, they get their victories derided, it is a rare thing, a genuine pot hunting bandit, at least on the sea, we've just got the one Merlin and that's getting more honest each year.
It is really not character building all this, precisely the opposite, eventually you get encouraged to swap about using the system which further builds the derision of the whole process of handicap racing, instead of trying to improve folk become cynical and it becomes 'only' handicap racing which defeats the object entirely.

The Laser was always a good 'average' boat. it never really excelled in any conditions. Other boats that are considered 'bandits' have a performance window where they really do perform well and definitely sail well below their PY.

Even a beat up old laser with a new sail can be surprisingly fast as many people found out when they came to the Open Meeting at Hunts and my old wreck lead them round.

The new controls didnt make the boat any quicker per se, they just made it more manageable for mere mortals so they sailed quicker. the top guys were always the speed they were (I believe one R Scheidt preferred using the old style kicker for quite some time after it became class legal).
Paul
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 17 at 11:29am
Originally posted by iGRF

So what would be so wrong about trialling a system based on fact with a fixed boat performance quotient and just manage the crew element by data submission, so you'd have say in the Laser a fixed figure of 1000, but the current national average crew quotient is 95 and just vary that bit, at least it would lend some logic for understanding when you try to explain to folk that it's not the Laser that's getting slower it's just more duffers are sailing it and or an organisation wants to make it more appealing for Laser helms to participate in one group of events so they manipulate the figures to their own particular advantage and don't worry about screwing the rest of us. ;-)

Who in the world is going to be able to determine a "current national average crew quotient"?  Can you imagine how much people like you would howl if a committee sat down and said "oh, those X class guys are only sailing 95, because they all use too much vang and I watched the championships and class Y over in the next bay were doing a much better job of picking the shifts last month."???

Seriously, I can't actually estimate the relative standard of the classes I sail myself, and I'm damn sure that people from outside those classes would have much less of a clue than I do.


Edited by Chris 249 - 07 Mar 17 at 11:30am
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