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Oli View Drop Down
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Posts: 1020 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: PY Numbers for 2017
    Posted: 19 Feb 17 at 9:26am
I predict that clubs might start to adjust locally, and that the national database is for recommendation on where to start from, or maybe not....
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Feb 17 at 10:24am
Originally posted by Steve411

Originally posted by boatshed

New PY numbers out soon.   Let's have your predictions.
I think the Laser 1 will go slower again by a few points and the RS300 a bit faster again with its PY  dropping to 970- 975.    


It's already 975! We are going quicker and quicker every year!


I suspect the number crunching that produces a drop one year will also produce a drop the next.
A combination of changes being diluted from what the formula spits out, and flaws in the process.

From a scientific perspective it offends me, but I cannot recall ever going to a club prize giving and thinking 'they only won that because of flaws in the PY system and I begrudge it'. But then I do enough OD racing to get over it.
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Feb 17 at 10:40am
Originally posted by Oli

I predict that clubs might start to adjust locally, and that the national database is for recommendation on where to start from, or maybe not....

It's a big club that can justify that statitistically.
To know that the average ability of your enterprises and the average ability of your GP14s is the same within a few % takes big sample sizes.
I've never seen anything good come from clubs fiddling with PYs.
Apart from when I took my 505 to the river and they just gave me the lowest number their tables went down to. IIRC I came 3rd. It was a long time ago!

Fiddling with PYs quickly gets personal and very toxic. A very effective way of alienating people.
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Posts: 643 		Post Options Post Options   Quote patj Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 6:40am
Originally posted by Oli

I predict that clubs might start to adjust locally, and that the national database is for recommendation on where to start from, or maybe not....


Our little puddle club is going to try adjusting this year - puts the Albacore back where it was a couple of years ago and gives the day barges a serious knock back! Spinnaker boats have no hope of sailing to PY on the lake anyway.
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Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 11:40am
Originally posted by RS400atC

 But then I do enough OD racing to get over it.

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Posts: 101 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pompeysailor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 12:10pm
If clubs adjusted PY locally then they wouldn't be able to submit PY returns - is that correct?

edited after clarification - Apparently clubs can still submit returns with locally adjusted numbers.


Edited by pompeysailor - 20 Feb 17 at 12:46pm
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RS400atC View Drop Down
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 12:15pm
Originally posted by pompeysailor

If clubs adjusted PY locally then they wouldn't be able to submit PY returns - is that correct?
not as I understand it.
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Oli View Drop Down
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Posts: 1020 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 1:02pm
Originally posted by RS400atC

Originally posted by Oli

I predict that clubs might start to adjust locally, and that the national database is for recommendation on where to start from, or maybe not....

It's a big club that can justify that statitistically.
To know that the average ability of your enterprises and the average ability of your GP14s is the same within a few % takes big sample sizes.
I've never seen anything good come from clubs fiddling with PYs.
Apart from when I took my 505 to the river and they just gave me the lowest number their tables went down to. IIRC I came 3rd. It was a long time ago!

Fiddling with PYs quickly gets personal and very toxic. A very effective way of alienating people.

when we adjusted the results spoke for themselves, we had greater turnout as those that thought they could be winning in classes previously ill-favoured by national handicaps on our stretch of water actually showed up more often.  

We of course had some backlash, we won some over a season or two, and of course those that shouted loudest won the fight to revert back (a minority i will add).  

In my experience we did what we was right and had increased participation for it, those that bleated on about statistical accuracy of the data were consistently proven wrong by the data (arm chair experts) but never allowed us to show them.  the club for its part allowed us to go with it but caved when confronted by the post truth brigade.

Perhaps we could of done a few things differently, but we gave everyone a chance to air their views, some friendlier than others.

I dont think the system is flawed but the participants attitudes towards it very much is.

No one can comment on how it can adversely or benefit unless they actually try it out, dual score for a season or two, take your time, bleed it in slowly to a series and see what happens, you of course dot have to take it up at all.


Originally posted by patj

Originally posted by Oli

I predict that clubs might start to adjust locally, and that the national database is for recommendation on where to start from, or maybe not....
 

Our little puddle club is going to try adjusting this year - puts the Albacore back where it was a couple of years ago and gives the day barges a serious knock back! Spinnaker boats have no hope of sailing to PY on the lake anyway.

thats great, hope it all works out for you, if everyone is on-board with the idea then you should  have smooth sailing ahead.

Originally posted by RS400atC

Originally posted by pompeysailor

If clubs adjusted PY locally then they wouldn't be able to submit PY returns - is that correct?
not as I understand it.

You can adjust locally and send in your returns no problem the returns group us the raw data so your adjustments wont effect the outcome.

go out, sail, enjoy yourselves.
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Posts: 1810 		Post Options Post Options   Quote craiggo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 1:07pm
The PY returns system in effect calculates the PY needed for everyone to finish at the same time in a race. It does this using the actual start/finish times. The actual PY used by the club is insignificant other than it is used as a start point from which possible adjustments should be made.
The RYA advice was not to jump completely to the suggested number but to get there slowly over a period of time. This is where the sailing committee have to agree to what level they adjust.
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RS400atC View Drop Down
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Posts: 3011 		Post Options Post Options   Quote RS400atC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Feb 17 at 1:17pm
Originally posted by patj

Originally posted by Oli

I predict that clubs might start to adjust locally, and that the national database is for recommendation on where to start from, or maybe not....


Our little puddle club is going to try adjusting this year - puts the Albacore back where it was a couple of years ago and gives the day barges a serious knock back! Spinnaker boats have no hope of sailing to PY on the lake anyway.

I think you are at Shearwater? I have sailed there many moons ago.
I can see sense in adjustments like 'spinnakers don't work well here, so all boats rated with spinnakers get x% on their PY'
What is much harder to live with is when big changes get made to say Wayfarer vs Kestrel when the most likely reason one small group is doing better than the other is that they sail better.
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