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Twenty years from now

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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Twenty years from now
    Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 3:29pm
Both kids love sailing, neither in squads. One loves racing, the other mucking around. That one has just talked me into booking her on the Stage 1 and 2 windsurf course at South Cerney Outdoor, as she did some windsurfing before and really enjoyed it. Again, I don't think windsurf squads will feature, but I hope a life long love of being on the water will follow, whether it be in dinghies or on windyplanks or even surfing, which she wants to try one day.
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getafix View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote getafix Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 3:24pm
Originally posted by turnturtle

My daughter went racing once, she thought it was pointless.  Once I saw the results after PY did its thing, I kind of agreed with her.  

Wise words for a 3 year old.


In 20 years time we will be well along the path of the current declining participation trend, which will have eliminated many of the smaller clubs still hanging on today, as well as niche classes.  The squeeze on leisure time (to compete with the dominant global economies of India and China) will have all but eliminated wood-bothering* and mega-clubs will define the boats sailed, not sailors, at least in a wider number of cases than today, thus eliminating the SCRAP** and leaving us enjoying 40+ boat starts, 60+ opens and 100+ championships, first-past-the-post wins, automated results using RFID and GPS/Galileo and teleport-based rescue services, for when I capsize my solid-wing-sail foiler for the 97th time and need to be brought in for a comfort break, as it will have reached my 25 mins bladder capacity time.

*besides, everyone in the south of England will have sold their garages, for £100k+, to homeless jobless northerners coming south for work and subsidised by the government who couldn't build HS2/3/4 quick enough Wink
*Small Craft Results Acquisition Platform, the successor to PY, coming in 2025


Edited by getafix - 28 Jan 15 at 3:25pm
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 3:16pm
No one is obliged to buy a house- if we followed a more European model then rental is more normal, as is asset appreciation on property only in line with inflation.  Outside of hot spots anyway.  

Easier said than done though- my own circumstances mean I'm not investing in the boat I really want just yet because we've taken out another mortgage.  That said, I think the depreciation on the boat is the least of the costs if you plan to campaign one on a circuit and regularly take your holidays for championships.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote bustinben Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 2:40pm
Originally posted by Jack Sparrow

Ummm.... I take your point Ben, but I bought a flat 1989 when interest rates were 15%. Then the housing crash happened. I lived in it for 8 years and sold it at a loss of 1/3rd of the value I bought it for. Then there were subsequent recessions that kicked the crap out of the Advertising / Design world, with the ensuing redundancies etc... During this time we also had a son, with all the costs that that entails. But during all of this ( and I have to add, only ever earning an average salary ) I have had more boats than you can shake a stick at. Including designing and building them. So ultimately it is down to priorities and not down to cost. Sailing needs to be made relevant, with a rule set made MUCH more simple, for it to engage fully with future generations.

What will the future be for sailing in 20 years?.... All the kids will be sailing Farr 3.7's instead of boring Toppers of course! See you at the Dinghy Show (Stand C56 - Butler Boats)

I think we'd need to see the participation stats from 89 to see whether it didn't have an affect then either!  You're right, it is down to priorities.  But you have to remember, over the last 20-30 years financial decisions were pretty simple.  You buy a house, it increases in value, you effectively have savings and a growing asset.  Awesome.  The future is bright.  

In 1980, property prices were about 3.3 times earnings.  Now they're 5.5.

The baby boomers are retiring extremely well off on the back of that trend.  For the current generation that party is well and truly over.  Every penny they end up with be one those that they have earned and saved (in general).

I'm not saying this is the only thing in the picture, but I look at what it costs me to compete at a decent level and I don't understand how it would be possible for most people do it.  Maybe the knowledge that their retirement would be paid for by their house would make people more willing to spend the money required.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 2:32pm
My daughter went racing once, she thought it was pointless.  Once I saw the results after PY did its thing, I kind of agreed with her.  

Wise words for a 3 year old.


Edited by turnturtle - 28 Jan 15 at 2:33pm
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getafix View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote getafix Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 2:09pm
Originally posted by jeffers

My daughter is showing absolutely no interest in racing at the moment. She just loves to get out in her own boat with some of her sailing friends in their boats (oppie gaggle) and sail around and mess around on the water. Maybe that will change, maybe it will not. One thing for sure is that I do not have the time or resources to get her to the squads so it is unlikely she will take that route unless something changes in the coming years.

We have a fair few kids who are like that too.

She does race in a Mirror but she does that for fun not for the competition and to learn more about sailing.


My kids are the same and while I like being with them and having fun I'm also a little sad they're not interested in the racing aspect at all. 

But then.... in my opinion, this is all too common across a whole range of sports and hobbies.  School sport since the "New Labour" interventions of the 90's has become PC-obsessed, non-competitive and frankly, boring for most of the kids I know (or whose parents like me despair of it).  Some of those who went through this system are now the PE teachers of today, continuing this non-competitive nonsense to your kids, and mine.  In 20 years, the British press will be looking bad teary-eyed at Sir Ben and the 'Golden Generation'* who won all those medals in 2012 and wondering why we're at the back again... we need to go back in time, to capture the spirit of past triumphs....

  1. Winning is good.
  2. Losing is bad.
  3. We need to celebrate winning.
  4. We need to shame losers and throw sticks at them.
  5. We need to get in our ships, sail to foreign lands and claim them.
  6. We should kill anyone who doesn't agree that King William and Queen Kate are their rightful rulers.

... oh hang on, we tried that.  Perhaps not.  Besides our Navy is a bit naff nowadays.... best stick to Finn sailing Wink


*a term previously used by the Sun to describe a group of serial losers who, as well as being fabulously overpaid, have also proved a very unwelcome diversion to getting out on the water in recent summers by losing, badly, at Football, to practically everyone of any note whatsoever
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Post Options Post Options   Quote chris_wht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 1:49pm
Originally posted by Chris 249

 they can get a skiff on an interest-free loan, store it for free, get free beer, and get paid $250 just for starting a club race on it.

You can? Right, im on the next flight... 

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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:35pm
whilst there are some 20-40 year olds who might relish big courses and travelling to large events and everything at club level is simply too sh*t, I wonder how many of them are 'pre-kids'..... the one thing I missed about my Solo in 2014 was the Wednesday night racing from the previous year.  I never did very well at it being 100kg in a boat optimised for 70-odd; there was never much wind to give this a dog a day and when there was a decent breeze I'd usually take my windsurfing kit.  But that routine of pottering around a pond to clear your head and get some time to yourself.... turns out it's not so bad after all.  Enough to miss it anyway.

As Jack says (excellent post BTW)- it's about priorities, compromises and decisions.  It's only the naive who would think that circumstances don't vary year on year- especially with the backdrop of a young, growing family who take the lion share of our love and attention.  And when things change around, we need to be prepared to change what we do and how we do it.... see Craiggo's comment in the what boat thread.  It makes total sense to look at something a bit different to an RS700 if you are only sailing it a handful of times a year.  


Edited by turnturtle - 28 Jan 15 at 12:37pm
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jeffers View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:26pm
My daughter is showing absolutely no interest in racing at the moment. She just loves to get out in her own boat with some of her sailing friends in their boats (oppie gaggle) and sail around and mess around on the water. Maybe that will change, maybe it will not. One thing for sure is that I do not have the time or resources to get her to the squads so it is unlikely she will take that route unless something changes in the coming years.

We have a fair few kids who are like that too.

She does race in a Mirror but she does that for fun not for the competition and to learn more about sailing.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JohnJack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:11pm
Originally posted by bustinben

 
When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling.

I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.

Good point, I am one of the very few 'missing generation' of club sailors. I am 33, my helm 28. 

Every kid these days seem to get swallowed up by the regional squads, everyone and anyone between the ages of 4 and 18 seem to be on one of some type, Welsh, GB etc etc....... 

First think as the poster above says, it shows them how good sailing can be at the elite end raising their expectations to a point where plodding around on a small lake in a spread sheet race just doesn't seem to be a useful use of there time and possibly very un kool (with added k factor to show that even at 33 I am down with the kids)

But this raises something interesting, the RYA system removes the 'kids' from the nurture and community of the clubs. Does this in someway effect their affiliation with a particular club, or even club sailing as a whole??
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