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Twenty years from now

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Jack Sparrow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Jack Sparrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Twenty years from now
    Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 11:23am
Ummm.... I take your point Ben, but I bought a flat 1989 when interest rates were 15%. Then the housing crash happened. I lived in it for 8 years and sold it at a loss of 1/3rd of the value I bought it for. Then there were subsequent recessions that kicked the crap out of the Advertising / Design world, with the ensuing redundancies etc... During this time we also had a son, with all the costs that that entails. But during all of this ( and I have to add, only ever earning an average salary ) I have had more boats than you can shake a stick at. Including designing and building them. So ultimately it is down to priorities and not down to cost. Sailing needs to be made relevant, with a rule set made MUCH more simple, for it to engage fully with future generations.

What will the future be for sailing in 20 years?.... All the kids will be sailing Farr 3.7's instead of boring Toppers of course! See you at the Dinghy Show (Stand C56 - Butler Boats)
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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 11:46am
Originally posted by bustinben

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by jeffers

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Thunder Road

How many sailing clubs will be left in 20 years time?

There's the absolute nub.

I believe that, unless we do something radical and soon, the 'missing generation' means club-sailor numbers will plummet when we 1970s sailing boomers finally hang up our wetsuits, at which point I can imagine at least 50% of dinghy clubs will become uneconomic and disappear.

Einstein defined madness is repeatedly doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome. 

The point at which the RYA will twig this, and realise they have completely destroyed grass-roots sailing in exchange for a few shiny trinkets (aka olympic medals), is when they find they don't have sufficient kids coming along to be cannon fodder for the next medalist to clamber over on their way to the top. By then it will be too late and the damage may well be irreparable. What a waste.

The only hope is we kick some sense into them before it is too late, although sailing falling out of the accursed olympics might help too. I am not optimistic: not many revolutions are led by near-pensioners


Some dinghy clubs have very active youth sections (to the point of bursting at the seams). 

Hunts went through a worrying patch about 7 or 8 years back now but is in much ruder health membership wise now than it was all thanks to having a great training arm. This is what gets the kids out and many parents have given it a go too.

We have a thriving youth section too, and have had forever. 

But the missing generation i refer too is the 20-40 year olds - the youth of yesteryear perhaps who for whatever reason have dropped out of sailing in unprecedented numbers and show no signs of returning. Who runs all the youth programmes when we are too old and there is no one following along?

I think the reality is that sailing is far too expensive for the non-1980-2005 house buying generation.  I'm one of the few 20-40 year olds who still manages to sail (and by that I don't mean turning up at a pond for a plod around), and I can only do it because I've been very lucky with the opportunities I've had.

When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling.

I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.

I tend to agree with the point about house prices, but down here in Oz there are youth who have grown up with fairly large and competitive classes at local club level (15-20 of each class) of high-performance boats (Cherubs, F11s, 29ers) on or near the open sea - and STILL they drop out in large numbers, just as they used to, despite the fact that when they grow out of the 29er etc they can get a skiff on an interest-free loan, store it for free, get free beer, and get paid $250 just for starting a club race on it.

Similarly, windsurfing has collapsed, kiting is basically a small sport, and for all the fuss about foilers and their brilliant performance, the Moth class is still fairly small (about 350 members in the world) and reporting 'stagnant' membership.  Meanwhile cheaper, simpler sports like SUPping, cycling and kayaking are doing well.

So, given that most kids drop out even where skiffs are available for free and can be sailed on open courses in good competition, is the drop-out rate really closely related to boats, level of competition, sailing ground etc? 

There are surveys of general sporting and physical activity trends that show a marked drop-off in ALL forms of organised sporting activity in the late teens, and studies that show that people are now moving away from organised sport in general. Seen against this wider backdrop, the issue may not be that people are unhappy with plodding around their local pond, but that they are dropping out of organised sport altogether around that age.

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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:01pm
Just quickly;

We all know that predictions are bound to fail, but in some areas (such as windsurfing) there have also been some pretty accurate predictions that a move towards high performance at the expense of accessibility would cause major issues. On the other hand, in a sport like dinghy sailing can't a few individuals have a major effect? I wonder how much smaller the sailing world would have been if it wasn't for Jack Holt, Haylock and Beecher Moore - it seems that their adoption of new technology and new approaches were enormously influential in making sailing into a popular sport. On a smaller scale, what would have happened to the Moth if one investor hadn't thrown millions (and lost millions) in the launch of the Bladerider, which may have kept the class alive albiet at major financial cost to investors, contractors etc.

Maybe there is a new Moore on the horizon, ready to take things like poly construction, 3d printing and great marketing and create a new boom? Sadly, I'm fairly sure that much of the sailing press of today (honourable exception to Y&Y and others) is largely so egotistical and short sighted that they'd abuse a modern Sunfish, Ent or Laser and would instead keep ranting on about elitist classes. 

And if I may rant on further - will technology allow classes that would formerly have died to remain alive? I've had some experience with phoenix classes, which were reborn when the net allowed owners to get back into contact with each other. Gone are the days when it was easy to lose contact with fellow owners if the class fell apart and no one could run a class newsletter any longer. Now any group can set up a Facebook page.

At a time when the very first International dinghy class, the pre WW1 Int 12, is considering renewing its international status as numbers grow once more, it seems hard to argue that classes are doomed to age and die. And when that class is also fighting out whether 'glass will be allowed to replace mahogany planking, it also seems hard to argue that updating is vital in keeping a class alive.

Bottom line for me is that if the sport realised that its strength lay in the grass roots, it would boom again. Sadly, too many egos are getting in the way.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JohnJack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:11pm
Originally posted by bustinben

 
When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling.

I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.

Good point, I am one of the very few 'missing generation' of club sailors. I am 33, my helm 28. 

Every kid these days seem to get swallowed up by the regional squads, everyone and anyone between the ages of 4 and 18 seem to be on one of some type, Welsh, GB etc etc....... 

First think as the poster above says, it shows them how good sailing can be at the elite end raising their expectations to a point where plodding around on a small lake in a spread sheet race just doesn't seem to be a useful use of there time and possibly very un kool (with added k factor to show that even at 33 I am down with the kids)

But this raises something interesting, the RYA system removes the 'kids' from the nurture and community of the clubs. Does this in someway effect their affiliation with a particular club, or even club sailing as a whole??
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jeffers View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:26pm
My daughter is showing absolutely no interest in racing at the moment. She just loves to get out in her own boat with some of her sailing friends in their boats (oppie gaggle) and sail around and mess around on the water. Maybe that will change, maybe it will not. One thing for sure is that I do not have the time or resources to get her to the squads so it is unlikely she will take that route unless something changes in the coming years.

We have a fair few kids who are like that too.

She does race in a Mirror but she does that for fun not for the competition and to learn more about sailing.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:35pm
whilst there are some 20-40 year olds who might relish big courses and travelling to large events and everything at club level is simply too sh*t, I wonder how many of them are 'pre-kids'..... the one thing I missed about my Solo in 2014 was the Wednesday night racing from the previous year.  I never did very well at it being 100kg in a boat optimised for 70-odd; there was never much wind to give this a dog a day and when there was a decent breeze I'd usually take my windsurfing kit.  But that routine of pottering around a pond to clear your head and get some time to yourself.... turns out it's not so bad after all.  Enough to miss it anyway.

As Jack says (excellent post BTW)- it's about priorities, compromises and decisions.  It's only the naive who would think that circumstances don't vary year on year- especially with the backdrop of a young, growing family who take the lion share of our love and attention.  And when things change around, we need to be prepared to change what we do and how we do it.... see Craiggo's comment in the what boat thread.  It makes total sense to look at something a bit different to an RS700 if you are only sailing it a handful of times a year.  


Edited by turnturtle - 28 Jan 15 at 12:37pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote chris_wht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 1:49pm
Originally posted by Chris 249

 they can get a skiff on an interest-free loan, store it for free, get free beer, and get paid $250 just for starting a club race on it.

You can? Right, im on the next flight... 

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Post Options Post Options   Quote getafix Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 2:09pm
Originally posted by jeffers

My daughter is showing absolutely no interest in racing at the moment. She just loves to get out in her own boat with some of her sailing friends in their boats (oppie gaggle) and sail around and mess around on the water. Maybe that will change, maybe it will not. One thing for sure is that I do not have the time or resources to get her to the squads so it is unlikely she will take that route unless something changes in the coming years.

We have a fair few kids who are like that too.

She does race in a Mirror but she does that for fun not for the competition and to learn more about sailing.


My kids are the same and while I like being with them and having fun I'm also a little sad they're not interested in the racing aspect at all. 

But then.... in my opinion, this is all too common across a whole range of sports and hobbies.  School sport since the "New Labour" interventions of the 90's has become PC-obsessed, non-competitive and frankly, boring for most of the kids I know (or whose parents like me despair of it).  Some of those who went through this system are now the PE teachers of today, continuing this non-competitive nonsense to your kids, and mine.  In 20 years, the British press will be looking bad teary-eyed at Sir Ben and the 'Golden Generation'* who won all those medals in 2012 and wondering why we're at the back again... we need to go back in time, to capture the spirit of past triumphs....

  1. Winning is good.
  2. Losing is bad.
  3. We need to celebrate winning.
  4. We need to shame losers and throw sticks at them.
  5. We need to get in our ships, sail to foreign lands and claim them.
  6. We should kill anyone who doesn't agree that King William and Queen Kate are their rightful rulers.

... oh hang on, we tried that.  Perhaps not.  Besides our Navy is a bit naff nowadays.... best stick to Finn sailing Wink


*a term previously used by the Sun to describe a group of serial losers who, as well as being fabulously overpaid, have also proved a very unwelcome diversion to getting out on the water in recent summers by losing, badly, at Football, to practically everyone of any note whatsoever
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 2:32pm
My daughter went racing once, she thought it was pointless.  Once I saw the results after PY did its thing, I kind of agreed with her.  

Wise words for a 3 year old.


Edited by turnturtle - 28 Jan 15 at 2:33pm
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bustinben View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote bustinben Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 2:40pm
Originally posted by Jack Sparrow

Ummm.... I take your point Ben, but I bought a flat 1989 when interest rates were 15%. Then the housing crash happened. I lived in it for 8 years and sold it at a loss of 1/3rd of the value I bought it for. Then there were subsequent recessions that kicked the crap out of the Advertising / Design world, with the ensuing redundancies etc... During this time we also had a son, with all the costs that that entails. But during all of this ( and I have to add, only ever earning an average salary ) I have had more boats than you can shake a stick at. Including designing and building them. So ultimately it is down to priorities and not down to cost. Sailing needs to be made relevant, with a rule set made MUCH more simple, for it to engage fully with future generations.

What will the future be for sailing in 20 years?.... All the kids will be sailing Farr 3.7's instead of boring Toppers of course! See you at the Dinghy Show (Stand C56 - Butler Boats)

I think we'd need to see the participation stats from 89 to see whether it didn't have an affect then either!  You're right, it is down to priorities.  But you have to remember, over the last 20-30 years financial decisions were pretty simple.  You buy a house, it increases in value, you effectively have savings and a growing asset.  Awesome.  The future is bright.  

In 1980, property prices were about 3.3 times earnings.  Now they're 5.5.

The baby boomers are retiring extremely well off on the back of that trend.  For the current generation that party is well and truly over.  Every penny they end up with be one those that they have earned and saved (in general).

I'm not saying this is the only thing in the picture, but I look at what it costs me to compete at a decent level and I don't understand how it would be possible for most people do it.  Maybe the knowledge that their retirement would be paid for by their house would make people more willing to spend the money required.
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