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Twenty years from now

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Do Different View Drop Down
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    Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 10:23pm
Blimey, I thought I could be a bit dour but I'm more hopeful than recent posters.

I don't think that future disposable income is such an issue. Messing about on the water and having some fun racing your mates need only cost as much as you want it to. It's 75% state of mind 25% equipment. 

I also really do believe that the cost of most products follows the available money supply. You see it all over the world with different pricing in different regions. If money became generally tight across the board, either products would get cheaper or simpler and cheaper and we as customers would also embrace the new norm. 

To be controversial I am not so sure that the injection of grant money has done that many favours. How many grants were available in what is seen as the heyday? Sure we have warmer Clubhouses, fleets of Fevas and shiny RIBs. However it is like any drug, it feels good, you get used to having it, need more and it distorts reality. To be political, houses of cards can get built on very sandy ground. 

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 10:44pm
20 years ago, a cheap, probably useable boat cost somewhere between £200 and £300. These days it costs between £200 and £300. I expect it still will in 20 years. Sailing doesn't have to cost much, and the plentiful supply of old boats means it will stay that way.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 10:44pm
Originally posted by Vronny

In 20 years time all those people now in their twenties who are too busy or financially strapped will hopefully have more free time and feel richer. If they fondly remember all the sailing they did as kids, whether in squad training or just at their home club, maybe they'll be ready to get back into the sport.
There again, if in 20 years time those same people are still too busy or financially strapped, then the sport will really struggle and the long term future of clubs will look very doubtful. 


This.

The first 29er kids haven't grown up enough yet to come back. I wonder what they'll chose to sail if they do return?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote craiggo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 10:45pm
Im with Do Different on this one.

I have a reasonable level of optimism when looking at what sailing in the UK will be like in 20yrs, mainly because I think there is a bigger generation of kids entering the sport now than I have witnessed for a long time.

As others have said, there seems to be a real shortage of 30-45yr olds in many clubs. I would say there are only a handful at our club, however we have a large group of guys and gals in their late teens to mid twenties who are still super keen and are now largely engaged in running or assisting with our sail training activity so we aren't as dependent on the over 60s who make up the largest demographic in the club. We have a small gap of about 8-10yrs and then the next wave are coming through and there are lots of them and they are really keen.
Those of us who are the parents of these under 10s are all keen sailors, most of us are or have been committee members or help out a lot at the sailing club and treat it as a great social family venue, camping there at the weekends during the summer and generally having a good time. I think its this environment that will maintain the interest.

To some extent the boats are secondary. There will always be affordable 2nd hand boats which for the most are perfectly adequate (I believe I am as competitive in my Grad which cost me a 10th of my RS700). I expect there will be a shift in trends but in which direction I'm not totally sure. There is so much discussion about increasing numbers of singlehanders but that is the current situation and not necessarily the future.

I wonder if there will be a polar shift in expectations from these youngster as they try to differentiate themselves from the current late teens-30yr olds and get interested in building and fixing things for themselves, which could in turn lead to a very different outlook?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 11:00pm
Especially when they will quite literally print out the replacement part.....
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Post Options Post Options   Quote The Moo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 8:19am
But they will still have to learn to use a screw driver.........I am told there are many younger households these days that do not possess such an item.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 9:01am
I guess that's the reality of a generation who swapped Lego for Minecraft.... 
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Do Different View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Do Different Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 10:20am
One word: Meccano  Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Quote bustinben Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 10:37am
Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by jeffers

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Thunder Road

How many sailing clubs will be left in 20 years time?

There's the absolute nub.

I believe that, unless we do something radical and soon, the 'missing generation' means club-sailor numbers will plummet when we 1970s sailing boomers finally hang up our wetsuits, at which point I can imagine at least 50% of dinghy clubs will become uneconomic and disappear.

Einstein defined madness is repeatedly doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome. 

The point at which the RYA will twig this, and realise they have completely destroyed grass-roots sailing in exchange for a few shiny trinkets (aka olympic medals), is when they find they don't have sufficient kids coming along to be cannon fodder for the next medalist to clamber over on their way to the top. By then it will be too late and the damage may well be irreparable. What a waste.

The only hope is we kick some sense into them before it is too late, although sailing falling out of the accursed olympics might help too. I am not optimistic: not many revolutions are led by near-pensioners


Some dinghy clubs have very active youth sections (to the point of bursting at the seams). 

Hunts went through a worrying patch about 7 or 8 years back now but is in much ruder health membership wise now than it was all thanks to having a great training arm. This is what gets the kids out and many parents have given it a go too.

We have a thriving youth section too, and have had forever. 

But the missing generation i refer too is the 20-40 year olds - the youth of yesteryear perhaps who for whatever reason have dropped out of sailing in unprecedented numbers and show no signs of returning. Who runs all the youth programmes when we are too old and there is no one following along?

I think the reality is that sailing is far too expensive for the non-1980-2005 house buying generation.  I'm one of the few 20-40 year olds who still manages to sail (and by that I don't mean turning up at a pond for a plod around), and I can only do it because I've been very lucky with the opportunities I've had.

When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling.

I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 10:48am
Boats are far cheaper than they were in the boom times, and so is transport. As you say expectations have changed. I can look round my own house and see all sorts of expenditure I would have regarded as ridiculously de luxe back then, not just in purchase but what it adds to overheads.
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