Twenty years from now

Originally posted by bustinben Originally posted by fab100 Originally posted by jeffers Originally posted by fab100 Originally posted by Thunder Road How many sailing clubs will be left in 20 years time? There's the absolute nub. I believe that, unless we do something radical and soon, the 'missing generation' means club-sailor numbers will plummet when we 1970s sailing boomers finally hang up our wetsuits, at which point I can imagine at least 50% of dinghy clubs will become uneconomic and disappear. Einstein defined madness is repeatedly doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome.  The point at which the RYA will twig this, and realise they have completely destroyed grass-roots sailing in exchange for a few shiny trinkets (aka olympic medals), is when they find they don't have sufficient kids coming along to be cannon fodder for the next medalist to clamber over on their way to the top. By then it will be too late and the damage may well be irreparable. What a waste. The only hope is we kick some sense into them before it is too late, although sailing falling out of the accursed olympics might help too. I am not optimistic: not many revolutions are led by near-pensioners Some dinghy clubs have very active youth sections (to the point of bursting at the seams).  Hunts went through a worrying patch about 7 or 8 years back now but is in much ruder health membership wise now than it was all thanks to having a great training arm. This is what gets the kids out and many parents have given it a go too. We have a thriving youth section too, and have had forever.  But the missing generation i refer too is the 20-40 year olds - the youth of yesteryear perhaps who for whatever reason have dropped out of sailing in unprecedented numbers and show no signs of returning. Who runs all the youth programmes when we are too old and there is no one following along? I think the reality is that sailing is far too expensive for the non-1980-2005 house buying generation.  I'm one of the few 20-40 year olds who still manages to sail (and by that I don't mean turning up at a pond for a plod around), and I can only do it because I've been very lucky with the opportunities I've had. When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling. I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.

Boats are far cheaper than they were in the boom times, and so is transport. As you say expectations have changed. I can look round my own house and see all sorts of expenditure I would have regarded as ridiculously de luxe back then, not just in purchase but what it adds to overheads.

One word: Meccano 

But they will still have to learn to use a screw driver.........I am told there are many younger households these days that do not possess such an item.

Im with Do Different on this one.

I have a reasonable level of optimism when looking at what sailing in the UK will be like in 20yrs, mainly because I think there is a bigger generation of kids entering the sport now than I have witnessed for a long time.

As others have said, there seems to be a real shortage of 30-45yr olds in many clubs. I would say there are only a handful at our club, however we have a large group of guys and gals in their late teens to mid twenties who are still super keen and are now largely engaged in running or assisting with our sail training activity so we aren't as dependent on the over 60s who make up the largest demographic in the club. We have a small gap of about 8-10yrs and then the next wave are coming through and there are lots of them and they are really keen.
Those of us who are the parents of these under 10s are all keen sailors, most of us are or have been committee members or help out a lot at the sailing club and treat it as a great social family venue, camping there at the weekends during the summer and generally having a good time. I think its this environment that will maintain the interest.

To some extent the boats are secondary. There will always be affordable 2nd hand boats which for the most are perfectly adequate (I believe I am as competitive in my Grad which cost me a 10th of my RS700). I expect there will be a shift in trends but in which direction I'm not totally sure. There is so much discussion about increasing numbers of singlehanders but that is the current situation and not necessarily the future.

I wonder if there will be a polar shift in expectations from these youngster as they try to differentiate themselves from the current late teens-30yr olds and get interested in building and fixing things for themselves, which could in turn lead to a very different outlook?