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Twenty years from now

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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Twenty years from now
    Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 12:01pm
Just quickly;

We all know that predictions are bound to fail, but in some areas (such as windsurfing) there have also been some pretty accurate predictions that a move towards high performance at the expense of accessibility would cause major issues. On the other hand, in a sport like dinghy sailing can't a few individuals have a major effect? I wonder how much smaller the sailing world would have been if it wasn't for Jack Holt, Haylock and Beecher Moore - it seems that their adoption of new technology and new approaches were enormously influential in making sailing into a popular sport. On a smaller scale, what would have happened to the Moth if one investor hadn't thrown millions (and lost millions) in the launch of the Bladerider, which may have kept the class alive albiet at major financial cost to investors, contractors etc.

Maybe there is a new Moore on the horizon, ready to take things like poly construction, 3d printing and great marketing and create a new boom? Sadly, I'm fairly sure that much of the sailing press of today (honourable exception to Y&Y and others) is largely so egotistical and short sighted that they'd abuse a modern Sunfish, Ent or Laser and would instead keep ranting on about elitist classes. 

And if I may rant on further - will technology allow classes that would formerly have died to remain alive? I've had some experience with phoenix classes, which were reborn when the net allowed owners to get back into contact with each other. Gone are the days when it was easy to lose contact with fellow owners if the class fell apart and no one could run a class newsletter any longer. Now any group can set up a Facebook page.

At a time when the very first International dinghy class, the pre WW1 Int 12, is considering renewing its international status as numbers grow once more, it seems hard to argue that classes are doomed to age and die. And when that class is also fighting out whether 'glass will be allowed to replace mahogany planking, it also seems hard to argue that updating is vital in keeping a class alive.

Bottom line for me is that if the sport realised that its strength lay in the grass roots, it would boom again. Sadly, too many egos are getting in the way.
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Chris 249 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Chris 249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 11:46am
Originally posted by bustinben

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by jeffers

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Thunder Road

How many sailing clubs will be left in 20 years time?

There's the absolute nub.

I believe that, unless we do something radical and soon, the 'missing generation' means club-sailor numbers will plummet when we 1970s sailing boomers finally hang up our wetsuits, at which point I can imagine at least 50% of dinghy clubs will become uneconomic and disappear.

Einstein defined madness is repeatedly doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome. 

The point at which the RYA will twig this, and realise they have completely destroyed grass-roots sailing in exchange for a few shiny trinkets (aka olympic medals), is when they find they don't have sufficient kids coming along to be cannon fodder for the next medalist to clamber over on their way to the top. By then it will be too late and the damage may well be irreparable. What a waste.

The only hope is we kick some sense into them before it is too late, although sailing falling out of the accursed olympics might help too. I am not optimistic: not many revolutions are led by near-pensioners


Some dinghy clubs have very active youth sections (to the point of bursting at the seams). 

Hunts went through a worrying patch about 7 or 8 years back now but is in much ruder health membership wise now than it was all thanks to having a great training arm. This is what gets the kids out and many parents have given it a go too.

We have a thriving youth section too, and have had forever. 

But the missing generation i refer too is the 20-40 year olds - the youth of yesteryear perhaps who for whatever reason have dropped out of sailing in unprecedented numbers and show no signs of returning. Who runs all the youth programmes when we are too old and there is no one following along?

I think the reality is that sailing is far too expensive for the non-1980-2005 house buying generation.  I'm one of the few 20-40 year olds who still manages to sail (and by that I don't mean turning up at a pond for a plod around), and I can only do it because I've been very lucky with the opportunities I've had.

When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling.

I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.

I tend to agree with the point about house prices, but down here in Oz there are youth who have grown up with fairly large and competitive classes at local club level (15-20 of each class) of high-performance boats (Cherubs, F11s, 29ers) on or near the open sea - and STILL they drop out in large numbers, just as they used to, despite the fact that when they grow out of the 29er etc they can get a skiff on an interest-free loan, store it for free, get free beer, and get paid $250 just for starting a club race on it.

Similarly, windsurfing has collapsed, kiting is basically a small sport, and for all the fuss about foilers and their brilliant performance, the Moth class is still fairly small (about 350 members in the world) and reporting 'stagnant' membership.  Meanwhile cheaper, simpler sports like SUPping, cycling and kayaking are doing well.

So, given that most kids drop out even where skiffs are available for free and can be sailed on open courses in good competition, is the drop-out rate really closely related to boats, level of competition, sailing ground etc? 

There are surveys of general sporting and physical activity trends that show a marked drop-off in ALL forms of organised sporting activity in the late teens, and studies that show that people are now moving away from organised sport in general. Seen against this wider backdrop, the issue may not be that people are unhappy with plodding around their local pond, but that they are dropping out of organised sport altogether around that age.

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Jack Sparrow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Jack Sparrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 11:23am
Ummm.... I take your point Ben, but I bought a flat 1989 when interest rates were 15%. Then the housing crash happened. I lived in it for 8 years and sold it at a loss of 1/3rd of the value I bought it for. Then there were subsequent recessions that kicked the crap out of the Advertising / Design world, with the ensuing redundancies etc... During this time we also had a son, with all the costs that that entails. But during all of this ( and I have to add, only ever earning an average salary ) I have had more boats than you can shake a stick at. Including designing and building them. So ultimately it is down to priorities and not down to cost. Sailing needs to be made relevant, with a rule set made MUCH more simple, for it to engage fully with future generations.

What will the future be for sailing in 20 years?.... All the kids will be sailing Farr 3.7's instead of boring Toppers of course! See you at the Dinghy Show (Stand C56 - Butler Boats)
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 10:48am
Boats are far cheaper than they were in the boom times, and so is transport. As you say expectations have changed. I can look round my own house and see all sorts of expenditure I would have regarded as ridiculously de luxe back then, not just in purchase but what it adds to overheads.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote bustinben Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 10:37am
Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by jeffers

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Thunder Road

How many sailing clubs will be left in 20 years time?

There's the absolute nub.

I believe that, unless we do something radical and soon, the 'missing generation' means club-sailor numbers will plummet when we 1970s sailing boomers finally hang up our wetsuits, at which point I can imagine at least 50% of dinghy clubs will become uneconomic and disappear.

Einstein defined madness is repeatedly doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome. 

The point at which the RYA will twig this, and realise they have completely destroyed grass-roots sailing in exchange for a few shiny trinkets (aka olympic medals), is when they find they don't have sufficient kids coming along to be cannon fodder for the next medalist to clamber over on their way to the top. By then it will be too late and the damage may well be irreparable. What a waste.

The only hope is we kick some sense into them before it is too late, although sailing falling out of the accursed olympics might help too. I am not optimistic: not many revolutions are led by near-pensioners


Some dinghy clubs have very active youth sections (to the point of bursting at the seams). 

Hunts went through a worrying patch about 7 or 8 years back now but is in much ruder health membership wise now than it was all thanks to having a great training arm. This is what gets the kids out and many parents have given it a go too.

We have a thriving youth section too, and have had forever. 

But the missing generation i refer too is the 20-40 year olds - the youth of yesteryear perhaps who for whatever reason have dropped out of sailing in unprecedented numbers and show no signs of returning. Who runs all the youth programmes when we are too old and there is no one following along?

I think the reality is that sailing is far too expensive for the non-1980-2005 house buying generation.  I'm one of the few 20-40 year olds who still manages to sail (and by that I don't mean turning up at a pond for a plod around), and I can only do it because I've been very lucky with the opportunities I've had.

When you've raced to a good level as a youth, pottering about on a pond on a sunday morning isn't going to cut it.  You want big racecourses on the open sea with competitive fleets.  To do that, you need to travel.  Travelling is very expensive in both time and money, and if you're trying to save up 50 grand for a house deposit it's just not viable.  Might as well do some cycling.

I think what the RYA performance machine  has done is show younger generations how good sailing can be, so they're no longer happy with what the bulk of the sport was when numbers in the missing age group were high.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Do Different Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 10:20am
One word: Meccano  Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 9:01am
I guess that's the reality of a generation who swapped Lego for Minecraft.... 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote The Moo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jan 15 at 8:19am
But they will still have to learn to use a screw driver.........I am told there are many younger households these days that do not possess such an item.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 11:00pm
Especially when they will quite literally print out the replacement part.....
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Post Options Post Options   Quote craiggo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 10:45pm
Im with Do Different on this one.

I have a reasonable level of optimism when looking at what sailing in the UK will be like in 20yrs, mainly because I think there is a bigger generation of kids entering the sport now than I have witnessed for a long time.

As others have said, there seems to be a real shortage of 30-45yr olds in many clubs. I would say there are only a handful at our club, however we have a large group of guys and gals in their late teens to mid twenties who are still super keen and are now largely engaged in running or assisting with our sail training activity so we aren't as dependent on the over 60s who make up the largest demographic in the club. We have a small gap of about 8-10yrs and then the next wave are coming through and there are lots of them and they are really keen.
Those of us who are the parents of these under 10s are all keen sailors, most of us are or have been committee members or help out a lot at the sailing club and treat it as a great social family venue, camping there at the weekends during the summer and generally having a good time. I think its this environment that will maintain the interest.

To some extent the boats are secondary. There will always be affordable 2nd hand boats which for the most are perfectly adequate (I believe I am as competitive in my Grad which cost me a 10th of my RS700). I expect there will be a shift in trends but in which direction I'm not totally sure. There is so much discussion about increasing numbers of singlehanders but that is the current situation and not necessarily the future.

I wonder if there will be a polar shift in expectations from these youngster as they try to differentiate themselves from the current late teens-30yr olds and get interested in building and fixing things for themselves, which could in turn lead to a very different outlook?
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