Twenty years from now

They are still competitive at that level which is why plus there are a lot of them about. I am sure there will be a 'class' for them as well as battling for overall positions.

We don't really have anything similar in sailing. OK the CVDRA does try to get older boats out and has number for the various 'updates' but it is more of a niche than mainstream really and there are strict criteria.

Messing about on water is an enduring fascination for humans.

We seem currently to be on a wave on interest in all things healthy and outdoors. Walking, hill and mountain is very popular, triathlon is no longer seen as elite only and we've seen the rise of cycling. I can see no reason for sailing not to be part of that, especially for sailing clubs that are in scenic areas that can offer a whole family day out.

The biggest impediment I see to sailing continuing is that it takes itself more and more seriously and spends too much time looking inwards to see the all the people who simply want to have some fun. 

There's the absolute nub.

I believe that, unless we do something radical and soon, the 'missing generation' means club-sailor numbers will plummet when we 1970s sailing boomers finally hang up our wetsuits, at which point I can imagine at least 50% of dinghy clubs will become uneconomic and disappear.

Einstein defined madness is repeatedly doing the same thing but expecting a different outcome. 

The point at which the RYA will twig this, and realise they have completely destroyed grass-roots sailing in exchange for a few shiny trinkets (aka olympic medals), is when they find they don't have sufficient kids coming along to be cannon fodder for the next medalist to clamber over on their way to the top. By then it will be too late and the damage may well be irreparable. What a waste.

The only hope is we kick some sense into them before it is too late, although sailing falling out of the accursed olympics might help too. I am not optimistic: not many revolutions are led by near-pensioners