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Twenty years from now

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Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Twenty years from now
    Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 3:46pm
Originally posted by iiiitick

I hope to be around in 20 years time at 89, after all my mother is 95 on Thursday but I doubt if I will be sailing. By then my duties will involve patronising and giving grumpy advice based on a successful career that never actually happened. 

My prediction is that sailing will be split with young athletic types sailing ever more extreme boats and old farts plodding round in more pedestrian stuff. In between these two sailing will fade under competition from other pastimes.

This has nothing to do with anything but I intend to go back to Venice every year until I do die. Last Thursday we were at the fish market watching a team of three blokes pulling out rotten mooring posts and replacing them with new. They had an old steel barge thing with a Hiab on it, loads of rusty chain and thick three strand manila rope, all frayed and muddy. There were no hard hats, no high viz jackets and no lifejackets. There were great lumps of wood being swung through the air and chains hurling about...all this just next to the public gondola ferry stop. We then took the gondola across the Grand Canal, all standing up as it picked its way through the heavy traffic. Again no lifejackets or even I life buoy....in fact I have never seen any emergency safety equipment in Venice. Long may it last!

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Presuming Ed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 8:56pm
State of sailing in 20 years time depends on a few things: 

1) Oil price. If transport is massively more expensive than it is now, then a decline in open meeting sailing/& hopefully ?growth? in local, club sailing. Return of local classes? (Unlikely). 

2) Death of the middle market. "The best is the enemy of the good". Either foiling/foil assisted based ultra high performance (moth/A class) or relatively easy to sail for even more time pressurised people. 

3) (Hopefully) merging of 3Di type tape laying & 3d printing, 

4) Boat parks will still be largely full of rarely used bits of fibreglass. 

5) The Olympics will be all about entertainment, with a minor nod to sporting fairness. Hopefully, the Olympic tail will stop wagging the dog. Unlikely, though. 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote PeterG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:39pm
what will be be sailing?

Twenty years from now I will have been set sail in my dinghy, which have burnt brightly for my Viking funeral. That does mean that I should probably change to something wooden between now and then, or an awful lot of nasty toxic fumes are going to be released. I think I'd go for something with a bit of class, an old Merlin or a Salcombe Yawl perhaps?


Edited by PeterG - 26 Jan 15 at 9:43pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Bootscooter Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:53pm
Originally posted by MerlinMags

Match racing will die out, and elements of early naval warfare will be introduced instead: each America's Cup yacht will have 14 cannon and you can blow away the opponents spars/foils/sails as desired, if you can't keep ahead.


A bit like "Lego Racers" but for boats? Sounds good!
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davidyacht View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 11:13pm
Originally posted by PeterG

what will be be sailing?

Twenty years from now I will have been set sail in my dinghy, which have burnt brightly for my Viking funeral. That does mean that I should probably change to something wooden between now and then, or an awful lot of nasty toxic fumes are going to be released. I think I'd go for something with a bit of class, an old Merlin or a Salcombe Yawl perhaps?
Be happy to sell you one
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JimC View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 11:15pm
Had a trawl back through rec.boats.racing to see what I was saying 18 years ago, can't manage 20.
Being rude about the 5 tonner, well I was right there. Expressing reservations about asymmetric single handers, suggesting wouldn't work on a Moth, would work on a keelboat and not predicting the changeover.
I do remember predicting the 29er would result in a far greater popularity of high performance boats, clearly I was wrong there.
Also doing some modest spamming of a new single hander...
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 8:25am
Peter G, if you use a Merlin, you'd better make sure it isn't a sought after design...
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PeterG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote PeterG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 9:19am
Peter G, if you use a Merlin, you'd better make sure it isn't a sought after design...

If anyone wants to complain afterwards they can come and find me Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 9:34am
LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Do Different Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 15 at 10:01am
Change? What drives it?  I'm all for people voting with their feet but there are theories that propose we do not have anywhere near the free will we think we do. 

I suppose being such an equipment heavy activity the focus on boats and new developments is understandable but is it all a little bit "Emperor's new clothes" ?

What path do other similar pursuits follow? Cycling, rowing or archery & shooting, how dramatic have any changes been and even if they have are the more classic disciplines still popular? 

In Martial Arts it seems to me that the unchanging nature and history is the very attraction.

Motor Sports. Of course F1 is always at the forefront but at Club level how much changes? I was at a rally recently and there where more Mk 1 and 2 Escorts going past than anything else.

I believe I have seen somewhere than horse riding is well up there for participation, not a lot of fundamental changes there.  

What is at the heart of sailing? What we do and who we do it with  or what we use to allow us do it?
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