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Twenty years from now

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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Twenty years from now
    Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:19am
In 20 years from now people on here will still be going on about handicaps and how unfair they are, and how THEY are out to get them.
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:38am
Kites on singlehanders is already a declining fad imho.  The pinnacle of high performance singlehanded monohull sailing is the Moth, has been for a few years.  The Aero is vastly outselling the RS100 - it just appeals to more people and offers a broader wind range to get the most out of the whole boat ownership experience.  And with the AC coming into the foiling game, it's hard not to see the A-Class as viable contender for a meteoric rise to mainstream awareness too, although that will be purely aspirational, as it will no doubt be something to watch, not something to participate in.  

As for the everyday hacks- it would be nice to think that the Laser will finally sod off, but I doubt it would happen.  It will mature- maybe a rig change, maybe a change in manufacturing conditions opening up the supply base a little.  But it will still be the go-to boat in twenty years for good club racing, and you'd be a fool for buying a new one for your Wednesday night series.  I would like to think I'd get myself a Finn by then, but that's more a metaphorical thinking - I don't need, nor want, a Patek Philippe for my 50th.  

It's hard to say what will happen with double handers- I think they'll all more or less plod along and I don't share Jim's predictions that symmetric kites will go into any smaller niche than any other DH.  If anything I think a new generation of kids will probably enjoy them more as long as they get exposed to them- something I can't see drying up unless the 470 gets canned.  I know that of the DHs I see, and would consider sailing if time were not the issue, it's the 505, Merlin, Fireball, FF15 etc that appeal these days. I no longer look at an 800 and think 'wow'- I haven't done for quite some time.  In fact the only twin string skiff I even think looks fun these days is a 14, but in reality I know I couldn't sail one to a level I would be comfortable with.  As for the 200 and 400 - I think they have some appeal where there's fleet racing and the 200 in particular, will always feature in my top 10 list.       

I think I'm fairly typical for my age and demographic- too much pressure on leisure time that when I finally do get some time to go sailing, I tend to be quite selfish and pragmatic about it.  I wouldn't travel to an event on the East Coast with no wind forecast if I could put a board on the roof and hit the south coast instead.  If there's no wind forecast anywhere, then frankly I would bank the pass for another day.  That said, in twenty years time I hope I'd have more local access to coastal sailing for a good chunk of the year - then I probably wouldn't bother travelling at all.

I don't know where windsurfing will be by then- probably more niche manufacturing.  Although it might just be saved by emerging markets- it's getting quite big with middle-class Asian families and seen as a very healthy and active sport to participate in.  Much as I've never got on well with the equipment, Neil Pryde are a fantastic ambassador for the sport, and you can't help but find the enthusiasm of their next competitor- Starboard - quite appealing now they've clipped the wings off their fanboys.  North is licensed out to a group of Germans- and they keep the investment alive and have a good product range.  I don't see it dying off the way some do that's for sure.  






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Post Options Post Options   Quote Time Lord Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:42am
Surely in 20 years from now, WB will have perfected his magic handicap formula to solve all handicap problems from his bath chair!

And we will still be moaning on this forum about it!!!!
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:44am
... you think this forum will be around in 20 years?  
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maxibuddah View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote maxibuddah Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 10:04am
I'd be s surprised if this forum is still about in 5 years
Everything I say is my opinion, honest
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Dougaldog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 10:46am
Having just spent most of the last 2 years doing the history of the Merlin Rocket, ready for their 70th Anniversary this year (and in the meantime starting a similar project for the 505)one of the observations that I made is on the cyclic nature of support. Interestingly, if you go back 20 years - the Merlin Rockets were in a pretty bad place, with a far from certain future. Yet, from those darker days, the class emerged, albeit somewhat different to before, but as a boat that would grow stronger and more entrenched in the niche it has created. Now it is not the job of the writer to be opinionated, so I avoided that pitfall, all bar a two page conclusion as a clearly separate tailpiece to the book. And yes, there I do look forward - to the next 30 years that will see the class celebrate a centenary in 2045. I have no doubt that the merlin Rocket will still be there and will look pretty similar to what we have now. Set against that, wooden boats will be a thing of the past, limited to some glorious examples competing on the classic circuit.

As for other classes, I can see that a good number will be gone by 2035 (many of them by 2025!) with some currently household names vanishing from view (and no, I'm not going to 'name names' - there would be an outcry, but it is not difficult to make a list) and even some classes that are highly cherished on here will by then be museum pieces.

The driving factor will be when the generation who used to sail in that 'golden era' - the days of the Holt and Proctor boats - are no longer around.... hmmnnn.... yes, then you can see the old defence mechanisms, of people spending half their life in one class, once that goes, change will happen more quickly!

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Woodbotherer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Woodbotherer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 10:55am
Why is the Merlin Rocket still around even? Simple Answer, nothing better has come along to scratch the particular itch that the Merlin delivers, which is that potent combination of a techy tool, close racing and high alcohol content in post race activities.

The other obvious feature is that it is a supreme bandit, protected from competition by the guardians of the status quo via their ultimate weapon of mass destruction for challengers the PYAG.

Destroy the PYAG and you might see some change. Wink

Merlin owners will ultimately pickle themselves into oblivion anyway..


Edited by Woodbotherer - 26 Jan 15 at 10:56am
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 10:58am
Change brings churn though.... We better damn well hope the new classes bring in enough fresh blood to keep the top of the pot full.... And that there's a more rewarding method of conducting racing for all this diversity than (bloody) PY...
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iiiitick View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iiiitick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 11:29am
I hope to be around in 20 years time at 89, after all my mother is 95 on Thursday but I doubt if I will be sailing. By then my duties will involve patronising and giving grumpy advice based on a successful career that never actually happened. 

My prediction is that sailing will be split with young athletic types sailing ever more extreme boats and old farts plodding round in more pedestrian stuff. In between these two sailing will fade under competition from other pastimes.

This has nothing to do with anything but I intend to go back to Venice every year until I do die. Last Thursday we were at the fish market watching a team of three blokes pulling out rotten mooring posts and replacing them with new. They had an old steel barge thing with a Hiab on it, loads of rusty chain and thick three strand manila rope, all frayed and muddy. There were no hard hats, no high viz jackets and no lifejackets. There were great lumps of wood being swung through the air and chains hurling about...all this just next to the public gondola ferry stop. We then took the gondola across the Grand Canal, all standing up as it picked its way through the heavy traffic. Again no lifejackets or even I life buoy....in fact I have never seen any emergency safety equipment in Venice. Long may it last!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote MerlinMags Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 3:03pm
Originally posted by Peaky

Sails will become colourful again.


And coloured hulls too? Please let that fashion return.

I predict 3D-printed boats are the norm in 20 years time. We're already seeing the beginnings of machines with multiple nozzles that can handle printing with two materials at once. I see boats with honeycomb double floors being printed with carbon thread inserted where needed, etc, etc.

Sailors over the age of 90 will still compete, in Illusion or 2.4m yachts where the rudder/strings are controlled by a couple of probes inserted into the brain.

Match racing will die out, and elements of early naval warfare will be introduced instead: each America's Cup yacht will have 14 cannon and you can blow away the opponents spars/foils/sails as desired, if you can't keep ahead.
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