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Twenty years from now

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Time Lord View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Time Lord Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Twenty years from now
    Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:42am
Surely in 20 years from now, WB will have perfected his magic handicap formula to solve all handicap problems from his bath chair!

And we will still be moaning on this forum about it!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:38am
Kites on singlehanders is already a declining fad imho.  The pinnacle of high performance singlehanded monohull sailing is the Moth, has been for a few years.  The Aero is vastly outselling the RS100 - it just appeals to more people and offers a broader wind range to get the most out of the whole boat ownership experience.  And with the AC coming into the foiling game, it's hard not to see the A-Class as viable contender for a meteoric rise to mainstream awareness too, although that will be purely aspirational, as it will no doubt be something to watch, not something to participate in.  

As for the everyday hacks- it would be nice to think that the Laser will finally sod off, but I doubt it would happen.  It will mature- maybe a rig change, maybe a change in manufacturing conditions opening up the supply base a little.  But it will still be the go-to boat in twenty years for good club racing, and you'd be a fool for buying a new one for your Wednesday night series.  I would like to think I'd get myself a Finn by then, but that's more a metaphorical thinking - I don't need, nor want, a Patek Philippe for my 50th.  

It's hard to say what will happen with double handers- I think they'll all more or less plod along and I don't share Jim's predictions that symmetric kites will go into any smaller niche than any other DH.  If anything I think a new generation of kids will probably enjoy them more as long as they get exposed to them- something I can't see drying up unless the 470 gets canned.  I know that of the DHs I see, and would consider sailing if time were not the issue, it's the 505, Merlin, Fireball, FF15 etc that appeal these days. I no longer look at an 800 and think 'wow'- I haven't done for quite some time.  In fact the only twin string skiff I even think looks fun these days is a 14, but in reality I know I couldn't sail one to a level I would be comfortable with.  As for the 200 and 400 - I think they have some appeal where there's fleet racing and the 200 in particular, will always feature in my top 10 list.       

I think I'm fairly typical for my age and demographic- too much pressure on leisure time that when I finally do get some time to go sailing, I tend to be quite selfish and pragmatic about it.  I wouldn't travel to an event on the East Coast with no wind forecast if I could put a board on the roof and hit the south coast instead.  If there's no wind forecast anywhere, then frankly I would bank the pass for another day.  That said, in twenty years time I hope I'd have more local access to coastal sailing for a good chunk of the year - then I probably wouldn't bother travelling at all.

I don't know where windsurfing will be by then- probably more niche manufacturing.  Although it might just be saved by emerging markets- it's getting quite big with middle-class Asian families and seen as a very healthy and active sport to participate in.  Much as I've never got on well with the equipment, Neil Pryde are a fantastic ambassador for the sport, and you can't help but find the enthusiasm of their next competitor- Starboard - quite appealing now they've clipped the wings off their fanboys.  North is licensed out to a group of Germans- and they keep the investment alive and have a good product range.  I don't see it dying off the way some do that's for sure.  






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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:19am
In 20 years from now people on here will still be going on about handicaps and how unfair they are, and how THEY are out to get them.
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Woodbotherer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Woodbotherer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 9:14am
Well the answers is pretty simple stupid isn't it?

Stop penalising new double handers with stupid handicaps nobody can sail them to.


Edited by Woodbotherer - 26 Jan 15 at 9:14am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Simon Lovesey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 15 at 6:36am
The data we are seeing in the !m+ SailRacer results database,  shows a decline in the numbers of high performance boats and double handers,  with a shift to single handers and the strong established classes holding up.

IMHO I think this is a reflection of more pressure on people's leisure time.   I hope the sport can find solutions to reverting the decline of the double handers,  this is one of the best ways of getting newcomers started as long term participants.  
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Do Different Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 15 at 10:35pm
Unless there is major leap in manufacturing technology which drastically reduces the cost of new boats I only see evolution and not revolution.

I agree Icon style boats may well become more popular.

I also agree with Woodbotherer that some of our current older classes will still be going strong in some form. Not for reasons of apathy or an establishment conspiracy but because they can offer a "nice" all round sailing experience over a wide range of conditions and venues. 

I am not convinced over the extinction of the symmetric kite. Sprits are so one trick pony and although they make perfect sense on faster boats, on slower boats they can result in pointless reaching and frustration.

Lighter boats can be good but as in all aspects of design going to the ultimate does not always produce the best all round package.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote sawman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 15 at 9:53pm
Originally posted by Vronny

When I was a child just starting out in sailing (a lot longer than 20 years ago!) I was certain that the traditional, local keelboat classes would become obsolete very soon. But they are still the main classes sailed in my area, the Norfolk Broads. Once production of GRP boats was allowed in these classes, especially the Broads One Designs, the Yare & Bure ODs and to a lesser extent the Waveneys, they have really taken off. 
They offer what most dinghy classes can't - competition without being overly technical, able to take whole families out when not racing, racing in tough conditions because they can be reefed and have storm jibs, you don't need wetsuits, you don't get wet launching because the boats are kept afloat or are craned in. 
The competition is seriously hot in these classes and so they attract  a lot of very good helmsmen. But you don't need really expert crews. In fact a lot of the boats are crewed by family members who don't aspire to helming, they just love sailing in boats that are a lot more comfortable than your average dinghy. And the social side of the sailing is pleasant and relaxed too. 
At my club we are considering our development plan again. We would like to ensure that good quality dinghy sailing  is sustainable. But the key thing is that our keelboat sailing is what keeps families fully engaged in the club. Novices can sail keelboats without getting wet and miserable. Friends can be invited to share the fun.
So in 20 years time I would hope to see strong keelboat fleets so that my club continues to thrive and that way all the crazy dinghy sailors will always have a club too.


Wouldn't mind retiring back to norfolk when the time comes, I'll look forward to hurtling up the river in a rebel, or more sedately in a white boat in 20 years. might keep the miracle for grandkids though!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Vronny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 15 at 9:34pm
When I was a child just starting out in sailing (a lot longer than 20 years ago!) I was certain that the traditional, local keelboat classes would become obsolete very soon. But they are still the main classes sailed in my area, the Norfolk Broads. Once production of GRP boats was allowed in these classes, especially the Broads One Designs, the Yare & Bure ODs and to a lesser extent the Waveneys, they have really taken off. 
They offer what most dinghy classes can't - competition without being overly technical, able to take whole families out when not racing, racing in tough conditions because they can be reefed and have storm jibs, you don't need wetsuits, you don't get wet launching because the boats are kept afloat or are craned in. 
The competition is seriously hot in these classes and so they attract  a lot of very good helmsmen. But you don't need really expert crews. In fact a lot of the boats are crewed by family members who don't aspire to helming, they just love sailing in boats that are a lot more comfortable than your average dinghy. And the social side of the sailing is pleasant and relaxed too. 
At my club we are considering our development plan again. We would like to ensure that good quality dinghy sailing  is sustainable. But the key thing is that our keelboat sailing is what keeps families fully engaged in the club. Novices can sail keelboats without getting wet and miserable. Friends can be invited to share the fun.
So in 20 years time I would hope to see strong keelboat fleets so that my club continues to thrive and that way all the crazy dinghy sailors will always have a club too.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Woodbotherer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 15 at 9:17pm
There'll still be GP14's, Furballs, bloody Merlins and all that old crap, not a lot of that will have changed, I like to think there might be one or two more foilers, but doubt it, unlikely there will be any EPS's left and the Blaze Inferno will no doubt be banditing an 1100 handicap with a 12 mtr rig.

But what will I care? At 87 if I can still get the bath chair attached to a couple of floats I'll be happy..
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Jan 15 at 9:14pm
I'll still have a Firefly, I hope. I was working for a Topper dealer 20 years ago when the ISO came out,and I saw the rise, and then how the Fireball regrouped, tweaked the boat and won people back. I think/ they will still be around, as will the Laser. 20 years isn't really that long in dinghy terms. The HP boats will be long gone,as speed is the aim, and there will be faster boats for people to sail. The rest, down to what people like sailing. Some will vanish, new classes will pop up, but very slow change.
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