Twenty years from now

Interesting topic. What a shame no-one posted it on rec boats racing back in the day, it would have been amusing to look it up in Google groups and see how comprehensively wrong I was!

Twenty years isn't that big a time frame. Twenty years ago I already had an epoxy foam sandwich boat with laminate sails and was thinking about carbon spars. We probably ought to be seeing what will become mainstream in the development classes now.

Personally I doubt there will be many really healthy mainstream pole kite classes left. Legacy classes sailed for historical interest I should think. I should have thought that mainstream boats will be either sprit kite or no kite plus downwind capable jib - dangly pole or something better.

I don't think foilers will be much more widespread, although Moths may prove more popular. At the moment the materials we have and the laws of physics seem to suggest that if you are going to have a foiling boat it may as well be a Moth. This is probably the most risky statement in this one.

It will be interesting to see if spinnakers for singlehanders survive long term, or whether they prove to be a temporary fad. Anyone remember weight equalisation?

If there's a big change in materials technology it will render this prediction obsolete.

I don't know that anyone has really designed a really good adults single string One design yet, and that used to be such an important part of the scene. Bearing in mind the "what we see in the development classes" principle I suggest it might well have a rudder foil.

It might be interesting to look back twenty years and see what has changed and see how that informs our predictions. Certainly twenty years ago I'd never have predicted the downturn in high performance dinghy sailing.

Edited by JimC - 25 Jan 15 at 8:24pm

I'll still have a Firefly, I hope. I was working for a Topper dealer 20 years ago when the ISO came out,and I saw the rise, and then how the Fireball regrouped, tweaked the boat and won people back. I think/ they will still be around, as will the Laser. 20 years isn't really that long in dinghy terms. The HP boats will be long gone,as speed is the aim, and there will be faster boats for people to sail. The rest, down to what people like sailing. Some will vanish, new classes will pop up, but very slow change.

When I was a child just starting out in sailing (a lot longer than 20 years ago!) I was certain that the traditional, local keelboat classes would become obsolete very soon. But they are still the main classes sailed in my area, the Norfolk Broads. Once production of GRP boats was allowed in these classes, especially the Broads One Designs, the Yare & Bure ODs and to a lesser extent the Waveneys, they have really taken off. 

Unless there is major leap in manufacturing technology which drastically reduces the cost of new boats I only see evolution and not revolution.

Well the answers is pretty simple stupid isn't it?

Edited by Woodbotherer - 26 Jan 15 at 9:14am