The Olympic Curse

The ‘Olympic Curse’ seems to mean that, as a result of selection as an Olympic Class, a class’s long term development and growth is significantly impeded, or that it’s decay is accelerated.  Reasons for this may be:

·         Escalation of the level of competition in the class so that ‘ordinary’ competitors believe that they cannot succeed in competition against ‘full-time’, ‘professional’ or ‘sponsored’ competitors (who don’t stay in the class permanently);  and

·         Escalation of technical sophistication and cost of equipment, and rapid turnover of sails and equipment.

The Olympics certainly didn’t do the Star and the Finn, which lasted 70 and 50 years respectively as Olympic classes, any harm, but it’s not necessary that the Olympic Curse apply to every Olympic class for it to exist.

The existence or efficacy of the Olympic Curse is usually said to be demonstrated by comparing an Olympic class with highly similar non-Olympic Class, particularly where there were trials for Olympic class selection.

Based on (somewhat sketchy) Australian National Championship figures (Chris249 doubtless has better and broader figures):

Finn (handful, <10) v Contender (about 60)

FD (handful, <10) v 505 (about 50)

Soling (handful, <10) v Etchells (30 to 50)

470 (<20) v Fireball (about 20 in Victoria alone)

So you can at least conclude that in the medium to long term, the Olympics has not helped a fair proportion of classes in comparison with their near competitors.

Proponents of the competing non-Olympic classes will probably say that it is all a result of their class being a better boat.  Certainly the 505 and the Etchells guys will say that, but for opposite reasons:  the 505 guys will tout the flexibility and development options of their class rule, while the Etchells will emphasise the benefits of very strict class rules.

Probably the only purpose of contemplating the phenomenon of the Olympic Curse, other than for students of black magic, is to try to identify what factors might leave a class ‘exposed’ to the curse if the class was pitching for Olympic selection, and what factors, more generally, will affect the longevity, growth, development and decay of a class.

Personally, I think the ‘Olympic Curse’ idea was a catchy notion, cooked up by the 505 and Etchells folk.

While it seems to have some empirical validity, who is to say that classes which go downhill were either great in their day, but are now past their use by date, or were doomed to fail in any case (Tempest).

Fortunately, very few of us will ever be in a position to influence a Class Association whether or not to pitch for Olympic selection.