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iGRF View Drop Down
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: New Singlehanders: PYs
    Posted: 21 May 14 at 1:41pm
All you people are asking for is what I've been saying for ages. SDHRS system, form a bloody group create a website and be done with it.
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Posts: 1586 		Post Options Post Options   Quote kneewrecker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 1:54pm
No, I want an EN, using the system that has served inter-class club level dinghy sailing well.  

I'm just interested in the path to generating that EN, and whom is best placed to pony up the first iteration.
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 2:06pm
So, what you are looking for is an educated guess with which to start the ball rolling in one place for the clubs?

Of course, once this guess is proved wrong (either up or down) by actual returns, then will start the whinging either by the sailors of the class if it goes down, or the sailors of other boats if it goes up, from the entirely fictional original number. Also of course, the same will happen if clubs pick a number and the returns come back way out from the number the club has been using based on its own observations, so you can't really win either way.

At least now the PYAG are using actual results, the reality sets in a little more quickly than it used to.
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Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 2:09pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman

Yeah when you mention it like that - another operational anomoly that will be tough to capture fairly in a feedback based PY system

But should you attempt to capture that sort of thing?

A few years ago I think I'd have probably said that PY should approximate to what the performance would be of identically prepared new boats sailed by equally skilled sailors in an average of all wind conditions and an average of all courses and sea conditions.

Now I'm coming to think that maybe if owners of class A only sail them in light conditions on rivers, and owners of class B only sail them in breeze on open water, then maybe its good that the observed performance handicap reflects that, because might that not be a fairer handicap for "the best sailor wins on the day" against class C which is sailed everywhere when class A sails against class C on the river, and class B sails against class C on Weymouth bay. And if every boat remaining in class D is clapped out and soft and slow, is it definitely wrong for the handicap to reflect that? I'm coming to think there's a lot to be said for simply reflecting what's actually seen on the water, rather than trying, especially if its by statistically dubious means, to eliminate those sorts of factors.

I don't think one should be dogmatic about this stuff: there are probably nine-and-sixty was of constructing handicap racing, and probably all of them are right...
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Posts: 3048 		Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 2:21pm
Originally posted by JimC

Originally posted by Daniel Holman

Yeah when you mention it like that - another operational anomoly that will be tough to capture fairly in a feedback based PY system

But should you attempt to capture that sort of thing?


Definitely not.

It is noticeable that under canvassed boats appear to get faster as the wind picks up.

In reality it is more likely that boats with more sail area actually go slower.

A classic example is your club Laser sailor who has full and radial rigs. when it is blowing dogs off chains they are likely to go out for a blast and will (in my experience) beat their mates who sail with a standard rig. As the Radial can be driven upwind harder in a higher wind where a full rig is much more of a handful.
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Posts: 1586 		Post Options Post Options   Quote kneewrecker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 2:35pm
Originally posted by Rupert

So, what you are looking for is an educated guess with which to start the ball rolling in one place for the clubs?

Of course, once this guess is proved wrong (either up or down) by actual returns, then will start the whinging either by the sailors of the class if it goes down, or the sailors of other boats if it goes up, from the entirely fictional original number. Also of course, the same will happen if clubs pick a number and the returns come back way out from the number the club has been using based on its own observations, so you can't really win either way.

At least now the PYAG are using actual results, the reality sets in a little more quickly than it used to.

That's very true - but if the RYA somehow endorse that educated guess, even if only giving it a temporary life span of say 6 months, then it is very hard for sailors of class A to moan that NewClass B has masterminded some grand scheme to give themselves a) a bandit with soft number or b) a tough number for an international marketing campaign to prove something is quicker than a potential competitor.

It's also hard for NewClass B sailors to moan as well, if the number is in someway ratified by the RYA.


I have genuinely appreciated Jim's feedback here- I don't think it's too much of stretch to take what he would do for island barn and offer that up as an example of good practice, in turn use that as a PYAG informal recommendation pre EN release. Hell, why not... sounds like the perfect vehicle to reinforce the message of local adjustment if it's not working for one club or another.


Edited by kneewrecker - 21 May 14 at 2:38pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 2:47pm
I think that is exactly it. Anyone can propose a number, but until the RYA endorse it no one trusts them. That doesn't mean it becomes fixed in stone, but at least it's an officially endorsed best guess, rather than a marketing gimmick or vested note rest of a committee member. And at least with a regression analysis estimate there is a semblance of objectivity to that initial best guess.
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