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New Singlehanders: PYs

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blaze720 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: New Singlehanders: PYs
    Posted: 21 May 14 at 11:57am
Guys ....

There is a very good way to get something more useful more quickly .... and I should know a bit about it of course.   Enter them in several of the Sailjuice events and see what numbers emerge.  There are events at Datchet , Oxford and Calshot (Sailfest) coming along very soon in the Summer series and presumably they are using the GL handicap system as usual. 

You might not like it of course if/when it throws up a number you don't like but you why wait years for the formal Portsmouth system to rumble into gear.    It cuts through all the lobbying, speculation and 'wishfullness' ....   It is very unlikely that anyone (RYA) official will put their head in this particular nest and give any new craft a starting point based on 'their' assessment or test - which is exactly the reason why manufacturers are often drawn into this tangled debate (and do not really wish to be involved at all btw !) .

THe GL/Sailjuice approach is also very explicit in the aim to use/ modify handicaps based on the boats POTENTIAL - not the aggregate of a long established fleet with a lot of tired old examples (and that could be both crews and boats !) or a dodgy first guess at a number.  The key assumption you can readily make is that the faster boats in any class at these events are generally helmed by decent crews and are well sorted - so netting out the 'crew effect' to a major extent.

So see you there ? ....  Wink

Mike L.


Edited by blaze720 - 21 May 14 at 11:59am
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JimC View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 12:06pm
Originally posted by kneewrecker

A question for Jim, if he doesn't mind, what rating would he suggest to Island Barn, given a new member without any past results, rolls up with an Aero 7, Aero 9 and D-Zero?

I haven't looked at the numbers for those boats. But I've gone on record as saying that I'd be happy to look at the output of Dan's vpp spreadsheet and Peakys regression prediction formula and use them as a basis for a trial number. You can all do that if the numbers are available!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote kneewrecker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 12:07pm
Fair response Jim- thank you.

Dan / Peaky?
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Daniel Holman View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Daniel Holman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 12:12pm
My method is/was purely regressional. Think Peaky's method he proposed recently was also regressional, but I think he may have done some VPP stuff too. Too clever for me!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Daniel Holman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 12:19pm
Originally posted by Dougaldog

Just for the record, at Netley SC, (Dan's home SC, where much of the Punk sailing has taken place) the boat was sailed for the past 2 or 3 seasons of 1024. Even that looked generous at times, I was RO and watched the Punk dicing on the water with a very well sailed Merlin and Contender. Now clearly you'd need to take the Dan effect into consideration and if the Punk (in it's original guise) were still to be sailing here, that 1024 could well have been amended further.

But take out the Dan effect and you'd be left with a figure - from practical observation (not to mention results) of somewhere between 1030 and 1035.

D


It is well worth noting that the races that Dougal observed at my old club were all light wind affairs where the punk could happily hang onto the coat tails of merlins and contenders. In breeze the merlin and contender are literally knots quicker on all points of sail, except DDW in the case of the contender. The PY is an average for all breezes, hence the punk used to appear to flatter itself.

More that 12kts and a typical reachy course and I think most of the Netley Dart 18 gang would beat the punk with their hands tied behind their backs even if it were sailed by Sir Ben.

I reckon 1050 will be about right for D Zero. Probably also for Aero 9 give or take.
1044 is tough on the rooster 8.1 - still!
The HISC hcaps look very tough on the new boats, probs intentionally - no way an Aero 9 would live with a phant IMO.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 12:44pm
The aero 5 level rating with a Finn is tough!

I reckon if you put the Aero and Zero both on 1045, it would take a long time to prove you were wrong...
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jeffers View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote jeffers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 12:46pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman

 
1044 is tough on the rooster 8.1 - still!

When you think they mostly get sailed in sub planing for a full rig then people switch over once the weight (dis)advantage is nullfied it is probably about right.

This is what I do (when I am not fleet racing of course).
Paul
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D-Zero GBR 74
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Daniel Holman View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Daniel Holman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 1:05pm
Originally posted by jeffers

Originally posted by Daniel Holman

 
1044 is tough on the rooster 8.1 - still!

When you think they mostly get sailed in sub planing for a full rig then people switch over once the weight (dis)advantage is nullfied it is probably about right.

This is what I do (when I am not fleet racing of course).

Yeah when you mention it like that - another operational anomoly that will be tough to capture fairly in a feedback based PY system
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Daniel Holman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 1:07pm
Originally posted by Peaky

The aero 5 level rating with a Finn is tough!

I reckon if you put the Aero and Zero both on 1045, it would take a long time to prove you were wrong...


Aero is best part of 90kg lighter than finn! and the 5 has more than 5m2 too right? I have to say if it were a reaching race in a bit of wind I reckon the 5 could win.
Not upwind mind

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 1:15pm
The sailor is about 90kg lighter too!
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