Laser 28 - Excellent example of this great design Hamble le rice |
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Laser 140101 Tynemouth |
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Rossiter Pintail Mortagne sur Gironde, near Bordeaux |
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andy101 ![]() Posting king ![]() Joined: 11 Jan 11 Online Status: Offline Posts: 176 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Posted: 10 Jan 13 at 11:00pm |
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Grahame/Greame (whatever..), I don't think the Great Lakes numbers were manipulated to make specific Classes more appealing, but were set to "match" the BEST sailors of each class, rather than the AVERAGE of the results, which I think is how the RYA system is set. *stands by to be corrected* The idea of this is to ensure that a top sailor of any fleet stand a chance of winning the pot, as opposed to what can happen with the RYA numbers is a good sailor in a fleet of duffers can have a massive benifit. Some or all of the above may be complete bolleaux.... can somebody confirm please? [/QUOTE]
Which I think is excatly what Mr Grf is proposing but in a less scientific way as it would be a much smaller sample with course & wind/tidal/sea conditions having a disproportionate impact on the outcomes
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chrisg ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 23 Mar 07 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 893 |
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The Great Lakes didn't alter the laser number to boost attendance. Even with their more lenient number there are still very few taking part in the series compared to the number we know club race, even on handicap, let alone laser fleets up and down the country but yes, the good laser sailors are now in with a shout of doing well, where arguably they weren't before. As for getting a small group of sailors together to test out the new numbers, I'm not sure how much that would tell us. The sample size would be tiny compared to, say, the (without checking) 40000 odd national results that are used to make up one season's national laser PN.
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sargesail ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 14 Jan 06 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 1459 |
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Yacht performance with so much more time in displacement mode, and so much more evenness in planing speed is signifcantly more predictable from the yacht characteristics.... Oh and if your a yottie you can pay to optimise.... So dissatisfaction is less, although peaks when rule changes/tweaks are made, or have unintended consequences.
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blaze720 ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 28 Sep 05 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 1635 |
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I think the one thing that was becoming obvious at many clubs is that the Laser seemed disadvantaged on its 'formal' handicap in recent years. It was unlikely that every other class was getting faster but the boat seemed to have lost relative speed somehow. A significant change looked warranted to encourage Laser owners - the 'old' system with the boat enjoying its 'primary' status made this difficult. You have to remember that many get into racing via the shed loads of cheap 'entry' level Lasers and similar at just about every club around.
There are other factors and I'm speculating now but I don't think the Laser excels in any particular wind conditions: Very windy = 420, Fireball and one of two of the asymentrics Light = Phantom, Merlin etc You get the idea of course, and you can all add to the listings .... We will all have our favorites (and just maybe bias !) to add to these sorts of relative performance rankings usually of 'other' classes at most SC bars ! However I don't think the Laser would be placed by many as a likely 'bandit' in any wind category - it is arguably 'too middle of the road' to win very often on handicap these days when one representative or another from the better 'matching to wind' category can 'over-perform' their number on that day ... The handicap number is only ever going to be an average after all and will never favour boats that have a very 'even' performance across the wind range. At club level a personal handicap taking into account both the helm and the class is much more likely to boost involvement from 'new to racing' types (and we could do with a LOT more surely) It is not what you purists may want to hear but most of us do have enough good class racing already to satisfy any of our 'purist' tendencies via our own classes. Over emphasising handicap racing whether at club level or in a winter 'major' such as the BM may be a bit of a mistake for the sport. Sure encourage handicap racing but make it attractive to the 'newbies' as well - scorn Golf if you like but personal handicaps work to the benefit of both golfers and the industry behind it. We need many many more grass roots participants - who is really addressing this today ? Deciding the PN of the various deckchairs as they slide down the deck of the arguably heeling ship does not do the sport overall much good. Handicap racing should provide good competitive sport for all but for the 'best' it should surely mainly be about providing good practice for single class sailing. It could alternatively be engineered to encourage newcomers rather than becoming geared soley to the priorities of the already convinvced ! To an outsider reading this thread it could easily appear that the PN discussions have become an end in themselves. They may just come to the conclusion that the sport is noisily disappearing up its own rear end bickering about class handicaps rather than growing grass roots (racing) participation .... that is imho ! Mike L. |
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sargesail ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 14 Jan 06 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 1459 |
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Yes I'm taking it as a nice complement that we lost the 12 handicap points advantage the great lakes gave us last year for the Sailjuice. Though I'd be interested in the statistical background to the change too ![]() But I absolutely endorse the thanks already made to ChrisG, MarkE and all those involved in the PYAG - which, like it or not, makes possible the backbone of UK dinghy sailing.
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ex laser ![]() Really should get out more ![]() Joined: 25 Mar 09 Online Status: Offline Posts: 725 |
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thanks to chris and all involved with the work they do with pyag, in making the system as good as it can be.
the system is not perfect and never can be, for all boats and all sailors, in all conditions its just an average figure. the fact is, nobody in fifty odd years has come up with anything better. at the end of the day its a waste of time fretting over 10 yardstick points in a race, when one bad tack will cost you more time!!!!!!!!!!! ![]() |
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marke ![]() Far too distracted from work ![]() Joined: 16 Jun 08 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 211 |
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Jimbo
Here are the things that seemed to work at our club - make it a dispassionate analysis based on evidence - I'm afraid you can't avoid data analysis - but the PYS makes this a LOT easier for clubs now (and the club comparison approach that Chris mentioned will add more value in the future if that can be made to work). In our case I wrote some software to do what the PYS does now and put it on the web so anyone could see comparative PYs for individual races, series, seasons at any time. - focus on the classes that are performing poorly rather than the so-called bandits (in our case it was the laser - we had some good sailors on the open meeting circuit who were never appearing in the chocolates even in favourable conditions for the laser) - don't cherry pick data - present it all for all classes - compare your clubs data with other clubs - the Great Lakes data set was a great breakthrough here (thanks Andrew) - and is a great informal forum for getting experiences of performance of particular classes which may be new to your club. Again PYS should make this easier in the future - and you can decide which clubs might be comparable. As it turns out apart from the Merlin Rocket our local results were very similar to those calculated by the Great Lakes group. - have some rules about how you will change PYS based on the confidence you have in your data (Hector has described what they do at their club in this regard) and stick to them. - agree to review regularly - start 6 monthly and then to annually when its settled down a bit. Do the review even if everything seems OK - no change is an acceptable outcome. Hope that helps Mark Graeme - congratulations that is the highest ratio of bollox/words I have seen in a single post for a long time. So few words - so many misconceptions. Edited by marke - 11 Jan 13 at 12:31am |
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tick ![]() Far too distracted from work ![]() Joined: 16 Nov 12 Online Status: Offline Posts: 223 |
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"Quick PY question".......was there ever?
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JimC ![]() Really should get out more ![]() ![]() Joined: 17 May 04 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 6662 |
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Basically yes, the RYA system is set on mean performance at the moment. (I fear I'm also on the PYAG). To establish the performance of the best sailors of each class is a statistically impossible target of course.
That's not to say the RYA basis might not change in the future. Once there are large bodies of actual race data from the new returns system it may become possible to do some more sophisticated analysis. Doubtless its something that will be discussed in future, but speaking **strictly personally** I have observed that in my own club results the distribution of corrected times tends towards a skewed normal distribution, and that the degree of skew appears to vary dramatically between different classes, much more so, in my club's data, than the actual standard deviation. This makes me think that given sufficient data and appropriate statistical manipulation the time may come where the published number could be targeted somewhere else on the distribution curve, using the index of skewness and standard devistion type numbers, so that it could, for example, represent the performance of the top 20% of the class, not the 50% mark. The variation in skewdness, should it turn out to be a genuine phenomenum and not just a freak of my club's results, represents an awkward problem, because it means that it is impossible to have a handicap that is fair for both the majority of mid fleet sailors and the minority of front of fleet sailors. We have this problem with Laser handicaps at my club. Reasons for this apparent skewedness I can't comment on. I have no evidence to suggest whether its something about skill levels of sailors or characteristics of the boats. On the data I looked at the skew was roughly the same for Solos and RS200s and very different for Lasers. Incidentally I personally am very wary of changing numbers too much year on year. I think we all believe that the biggest factor in relative performance of different classes is wind strength and sea conditions, and amazingly enough different years and even different decades have suprisingly different weather. IMHO there's a definite risk of setting a handicap for for last year's weather that is much less fair for next season than a five year average would be... And of course because weather is so important single events are of very little value in setting fair handicaps. Edited by JimC - 11 Jan 13 at 12:12am |
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I am reading a book at the moment (Thinking, Fast and Slow), which contains much discussion relevant to The Great PY debate. Topics covered include how bad we are (even pro statisticians) at using our intuition at estimating statistics, our misplaced faith in small sample sizes, our inability to distinguish heresay from fact, our subconscious biases etc etc. highly recommend reading.
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